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AUG 7, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Warner dropped sharply to 9% while Taylor stayed near 69% and Bergmann rose to 8%, signaling the market is consolidating around Taylor in the TN-09 Republican primary. The redistricting-driven coverage and Cohen’s exit make this race newly relevant for traders watching the nomination path.
The biggest development is that Tennessee’s new map is still in effect ahead of the August 6 primary, even as lawsuits continue. Rep. Steve Cohen has dropped his re-election bid after the redrawn 9th District became unfavorable for Democrats. The new map splits Memphis into three districts and is described as Republican-leaning. The redistricting news appears to strengthen the Republican side in the district and reduce Democratic chances. Ongoing lawsuits add some uncertainty, but the map is still in place for now.
Tennessee Rep. Steve Cohen broke down in tears while reflecting on his decision to drop his reelection bid after redistricting all but ensured he had no path to victory.
The NAACP is urging Black student-athletes to withhold their college commitments in states where new congressional maps could be drawn.
See what has happened and what is next in the four lawsuits trying to block Tennessee Republicans' congressional redistricting.
C. BergmannCharlotte BergmannSource: FEC
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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
