Polling Average
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
50.5%
40%
37%
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$75.2K
JUN 17, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
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Track how candidate odds have moved across common market windows.
source: Kalshi
Gov. Kevin Stitt has appointed Alan Armstrong as a temporary replacement for Markwayne Mullin, and Armstrong is not eligible to run for the seat. Rep. Kevin Hern has entered the race and has quickly consolidated major endorsements, including from Donald Trump, John Thune, and Tim Scott. Coverage now frames Hern as the leading candidate for the GOP nomination. The cluster of high-profile endorsements and Hern’s early entry likely strengthens Hern’s position and could push market odds toward him. Armstrong’s appointment removes a potential incumbent-style contender, which may reduce uncertainty.
A temporary replacement for the outgoing Oklahoma Senator has been chosen, and the campaign for his seat is underway.
Many other lawmakers praise themselves effusively as they're exiting Capitol Hill, whatever their actual legislative accomplishments.
Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., has announced he is running for the Senate seat soon to be vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin upon his confirmation as secretary of homeland security.
House GOP Policy Chair Kevin Hern enters the race for Markwayne Mullin’s Senate seat, tapping Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio as he targets "radical left" policies.
Republican Mike DuHaime and Democrat Julie Roginsky break down the Iran conflict, the crises Trump is juggling, and the fallout from accusations in the Epstein files. Plus, Gov. Sherrill's first budget address.
The energy industry executive appointed to fill the Senate seat from Oklahoma pledged to make energy policy and permitting reforms for infrastructure projects his top priority.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Tim Scott have both endorsed Trump-backed U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Kevin Hern.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senator Tim Scott endorsed Representative Kevin Hern after President Donald Trump backed his bid for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin is facing the Senate Homeland Security Committee in his confirmation hearing to replace Kristi Noem as head of DHS.
President Donald Trump moved to clear the field in an Oklahoma primary race, endorsing Representative Kevin Hern just two days after Hern began his campaign for Senate.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
K. HernKevin HernS. BiceStephanie Bice
J. BrecheenJosh Brecheen
R. MeinhardtRon MeinhardtSource: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
