Prediction Edge
Republican
Adam Schwarze

Adam Schwarze

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota

Live Odds — Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$376.5KAUG 18, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate supports lowering taxes, reducing government spending and regulation, pursuing a balanced budget, and offering small-business tax credits and regulatory relief to stimulate economic growth and job creation.

Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement, opposes “open borders,” and calls for deterring illegal crossings and enforcing consequences for unlawful entry while also advocating dismantling trafficking networks and addressing root causes of migration. Emphasizes increased law enforcement resources and tougher federal enforcement rather than expanded legal pathways or broad regularization.

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Climate & Energy

Supports domestic energy production and criticizes policies that limit fossil-fuel development; frames energy policy in terms of reliability, affordability, and national security rather than aggressive emissions targets or major clean-energy mandates.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 12, 2026

Adam Schwarze is in the news because he ran for the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate nomination, but Michele Tafoya won the primary and will move on to the general election. Schwarze had been GOP-endorsed and campaigned on his military background, smaller government, nuclear energy, tariffs, and opposition to heavy regulation. He also drew attention for criticizing a Senate forum that excluded him.

fec.gov+59

Latest Polls

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Adam Schwarze currently averages 7.2%, ranking third in this race, 5.0 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 7.2%Position: thirdMargin: -5.0 ptsLatest poll: 5.0% (Jul 29 - Aug 4)Polls included: 6

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 29 - Aug 4.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
7.2%
44.1%
12.2%
Adam Schwarze
A. Schwarze
Michele Tafoya
M. Tafoya
Royce White
R. White
Tom Weiler
T. Weiler
David Hann
D. Hann
Date (Start - End)SpreadSchwarzeTafoyaWhiteWeilerHann
Polling Average
Tafoya+37.0
7.2%44.1%12.2%3.9%3.0%
SurveyUSAJul 29 - Aug 4
Tafoya+43.0
5.0%48.0%13.0%3.0%
Deep Root AnalyticsAug 3 - 4
Tafoya+29.0
18.0%47.0%15.0%
SurveyUSAJul 15 - 20
Tafoya+36.0
5.0%41.0%10.0%7.0%
SurveyUSAJun 11 - 16
Tafoya+29.0
7.0%36.0%15.0%7.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 9
Tafoya+47.7
4.1%51.8%8.9%1.6%
Peak InsightsJan 31 - Feb 1
Tafoya+37.0
4.0%41.0%11.0%1.0%3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.4M
$1.1M
$719.8K
$359.9K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.4M
$183.8K
$1.3M
$66.1K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements