Fresh odds moves, new highs and lows, trends, lead changes, polling, fundraising, endorsements, and news across active elections.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 94% in the past hour, a major repricing ahead of Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic primary that traders should watch for follow-through.
Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?
El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 94% in the past hour, a major repricing ahead of Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic primary that traders should watch for follow-through.
New York Attorney General winner?
Republican Party's odds are now 90%, well above the prior high of 7%.
New York Attorney General winner?
Republican Party's odds are now 90%, well above the prior high of 7%.
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Claim nowMichigan Democratic Senate nominee?
El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 94% in the past hour, a major repricing ahead of Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic primary that traders should watch for follow-through.
El-Sayed’s nominee odds jumped from 71% to 94% in the past hour, a major repricing ahead of Michigan’s Aug. 4 Democratic primary that traders should watch for follow-through.
New York Attorney General winner?
Republican Party's odds are now 90%, well above the prior high of 7%.
Republican Party's odds are now 90%, well above the prior high of 7%.
MI-07 House winner?
This is a fresh low for the Democratic Party in "MI-07 House winner?", breaking below the previous low of 80%.
This is a fresh low for the Democratic Party in "MI-07 House winner?", breaking below the previous low of 80%.
Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?
Marsha Blackburn’s Republican nominee odds fell from 0.97 to 0.92 in the past hour as fresh reporting on Monty Fritts’s mosque-ban remarks adds a new news catalyst in the Tennessee GOP governor primary.
Marsha Blackburn’s Republican nominee odds fell from 0.97 to 0.92 in the past hour as fresh reporting on Monty Fritts’s mosque-ban remarks adds a new news catalyst in the Tennessee GOP governor primary.
FL-20 Democratic nominee?
Her odds rebounded from 76% to 76% in the last day, while recent reporting still shows her holding the front-runner position in a race where Manley had briefly closed the gap.
Her odds rebounded from 76% to 76% in the last day, while recent reporting still shows her holding the front-runner position in a race where Manley had briefly closed the gap.
Ann Arbor Democratic mayoral primary winner?
Rabhi's odds are now 42%, above the previous high of 18%.
Rabhi's odds are now 42%, above the previous high of 18%.
Texas Governor winner?
Gina Hinojosa’s Texas governor contract has stayed elevated near 0.18 after a sharp two-week repricing, and fresh reporting on her data-center moratorium push keeps the affordability/regulation theme live for traders.
Gina Hinojosa’s Texas governor contract has stayed elevated near 0.18 after a sharp two-week repricing, and fresh reporting on her data-center moratorium push keeps the affordability/regulation theme live for traders.
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Norman’s contract has kept climbing into the high-30s on heavy recent volume, while fresh AP reporting says the field is set and the special primary is imminent, making the repricing tradable.
Norman’s contract has kept climbing into the high-30s on heavy recent volume, while fresh AP reporting says the field is set and the special primary is imminent, making the repricing tradable.
OH-09 House winner?
Marcy Kaptur's odds are now 78%, above the previous high of 65%.
Marcy Kaptur's odds are now 78%, above the previous high of 65%.
FL-23 Democratic nominee?
Fresh reporting and the official ballot show Oliver Larkin on the FL-23 ballot only after redistricting confusion, while current coverage says he has shifted to FL-25 and Moskowitz is no longer the relevant FL-23 Democratic primary opponent, which helps explain the weak FL-23 pricing and makes Frankel the de facto market center.
Fresh reporting and the official ballot show Oliver Larkin on the FL-23 ballot only after redistricting confusion, while current coverage says he has shifted to FL-25 and Moskowitz is no longer the relevant FL-23 Democratic primary opponent, which helps explain the weak FL-23 pricing and makes Frankel the de facto market center.
MN-04 Republican nominee?
Paul Wikstrom is now at 80% and leads by 46.0 points in the MN-04 Republican nominee race.
Paul Wikstrom is now at 80% and leads by 46.0 points in the MN-04 Republican nominee race.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Barnes dropping out further consolidates the Democratic field behind Francesca Hong and David Crowley, reinforcing Hong’s already-dominant market position and narrowing the set of tradable challengers.
Barnes dropping out further consolidates the Democratic field behind Francesca Hong and David Crowley, reinforcing Hong’s already-dominant market position and narrowing the set of tradable challengers.
MI-07 Democratic nominee?
William Lawrence is now the front-runner at 94%, with an 89.0-point lead over the prior leader.
William Lawrence is now the front-runner at 94%, with an 89.0-point lead over the prior leader.
MI-01 Democratic nominee?
Callie Barr is now at 72% and leads by 44.0 points in the MI-01 Democratic nominee race.
Callie Barr is now at 72% and leads by 44.0 points in the MI-01 Democratic nominee race.
CA-04 House winner?
Eric Jones's odds are up 18.0 points and are now 27% in "CA-04 House winner?" over a 3-day streak.
Eric Jones's odds are up 18.0 points and are now 27% in "CA-04 House winner?" over a 3-day streak.
VA-10 Republican nominee?
Dave Beckwith's odds are up 19.0 points and are now at 93% in "VA-10 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Dave Beckwith's odds are up 19.0 points and are now at 93% in "VA-10 Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
IL-11 House winner?
Bill Foster is now leading with 93% odds in the IL-11 House winner race, after the lead changed from a Republican to a Democrat.
Bill Foster is now leading with 93% odds in the IL-11 House winner race, after the lead changed from a Republican to a Democrat.
MA-06 Republican nominee?
Micah Jones is now leading with 94% odds and a 88.0-point margin.
Micah Jones is now leading with 94% odds and a 88.0-point margin.
OH-07 House winner?
Brian Poindexter is now leading with 56% in "OH-07 House winner?", ahead of the prior leader by 11.0 points.
Brian Poindexter is now leading with 56% in "OH-07 House winner?", ahead of the prior leader by 11.0 points.
Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?
Lamont’s nominee odds climbed to 97.5% after Elliott secured a $3.75M public-financing grant and launched his first TV ads, keeping the primary market heavily tilted toward the incumbent.
Lamont’s nominee odds climbed to 97.5% after Elliott secured a $3.75M public-financing grant and launched his first TV ads, keeping the primary market heavily tilted toward the incumbent.
Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?
Hamilton’s price surged from 80% to 94% over the last day, and recent Kansas City Star coverage shows his campaign’s fundraising and candidate-profile momentum remains the dominant story in the race. ([kansascity.com](https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article316400124.html?utm_source=openai))
Hamilton’s price surged from 80% to 94% over the last day, and recent Kansas City Star coverage shows his campaign’s fundraising and candidate-profile momentum remains the dominant story in the race. ([kansascity.com](https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article316400124.html?utm_source=openai))
FL-24 Democratic nominee?
Oliver Gilbert is now leading with 56% support in the FL-24 Democratic nominee race, replacing the prior leader.
Oliver Gilbert is now leading with 56% support in the FL-24 Democratic nominee race, replacing the prior leader.
Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?
Corson fell from 77% to 82% in the past hour while Holscher jumped back to 82%, and fresh reporting still frames the race around Holscher’s front-runner status and the same Kelly-endorsement split.
Corson fell from 77% to 82% in the past hour while Holscher jumped back to 82%, and fresh reporting still frames the race around Holscher’s front-runner status and the same Kelly-endorsement split.
OH-07 House winner?
Brian Poindexter’s House win probability jumped to 64% while Max Miller fell to 36%, signaling a meaningful late repricing in a seat the market had previously treated as Republican-leaning.
Brian Poindexter’s House win probability jumped to 64% while Max Miller fell to 36%, signaling a meaningful late repricing in a seat the market had previously treated as Republican-leaning.
Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh coverage highlights Laura Kelly’s role as a campaign asset and source of division in the Democratic primary, with Holscher and Corson still trading at very different levels.
Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh coverage highlights Laura Kelly’s role as a campaign asset and source of division in the Democratic primary, with Holscher and Corson still trading at very different levels.
NJ-09 House winner?
New reporting says Pino will be the GOP nominee in NJ-9, crystallizing the general-election matchup as Pou’s Democratic odds remain around 0.916 and the Republican side sits near 0.098.
New reporting says Pino will be the GOP nominee in NJ-9, crystallizing the general-election matchup as Pou’s Democratic odds remain around 0.916 and the Republican side sits near 0.098.
Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?
Eric Barlow is now leading with 55% odds, ahead of the prior leader by 10.0 points.
Eric Barlow is now leading with 55% odds, ahead of the prior leader by 10.0 points.
FL-15 Republican nominee?
Laurel Lee is now the front-runner with 99% odds in the FL-15 Republican nominee race, after overtaking the previous leader.
Laurel Lee is now the front-runner with 99% odds in the FL-15 Republican nominee race, after overtaking the previous leader.
FL-07 Republican nominee?
Mike Johnson has raised $20,976,864 this cycle, while Ryan Elijah leads the latest odds for the FL-07 Republican nominee race.
Mike Johnson has raised $20,976,864 this cycle, while Ryan Elijah leads the latest odds for the FL-07 Republican nominee race.
SC-01 House winner?
Donald Trump backed Jenny Costa Honeycutt, and she is currently at 76% in "SC-01 House winner?"
Donald Trump backed Jenny Costa Honeycutt, and she is currently at 76% in "SC-01 House winner?"
WA-03 primary: 1st place
Braun’s win probability rose about 10 points in the last hour, and recent coverage still frames WA-03 as a competitive race where Braun is the leading Republican challenger to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
Braun’s win probability rose about 10 points in the last hour, and recent coverage still frames WA-03 as a competitive race where Braun is the leading Republican challenger to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Jon Ossoff has moved back up to 15% after several days of 12%-15% trading, while fresh reporting keeps him in the early 2028 Democratic conversation and highlights the market’s continued repricing.
Jon Ossoff has moved back up to 15% after several days of 12%-15% trading, while fresh reporting keeps him in the early 2028 Democratic conversation and highlights the market’s continued repricing.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Mike Lindell's odds are up 54.0 points and are now at 62% in "Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Mike Lindell's odds are up 54.0 points and are now at 62% in "Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
FL-21 Democratic nominee?
James Martin is now at 54% and leads by 11.0 points in the FL-21 Democratic nominee race.
James Martin is now at 54% and leads by 11.0 points in the FL-21 Democratic nominee race.
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
James hit a new high in the Michigan Republican governor nomination market as fresh reporting confirms the race is now effectively a two-man contest with Perry Johnson, making the remaining primary path look even more one-sided.
James hit a new high in the Michigan Republican governor nomination market as fresh reporting confirms the race is now effectively a two-man contest with Perry Johnson, making the remaining primary path look even more one-sided.
Alaska Senate winner? (Person)
Dan Sullivan has raised $8,501,665 this cycle, while Mary Peltola leads the latest odds by 12 points.
Dan Sullivan has raised $8,501,665 this cycle, while Mary Peltola leads the latest odds by 12 points.
Iowa Senate winner? (Person)
Barack Obama has endorsed Josh Turek, giving the Iowa Democrat a high-profile boost in a race where he remains the market underdog at 47% to Ashley Hinson’s 59%.
Barack Obama has endorsed Josh Turek, giving the Iowa Democrat a high-profile boost in a race where he remains the market underdog at 47% to Ashley Hinson’s 59%.
MO-06 Republican nominee?
Stigall’s nomination price moved up to 0.78 after a burst of recent coverage about his race against Nathan Willett, keeping him firmly favored but signaling the market is still repricing the contest.
Stigall’s nomination price moved up to 0.78 after a burst of recent coverage about his race against Nathan Willett, keeping him firmly favored but signaling the market is still repricing the contest.
AZ-02 House winner?
Jonathan Nez has raised $3,519,760 this cycle, while Eli Crane holds the lead in "AZ-02 House winner?"
Jonathan Nez has raised $3,519,760 this cycle, while Eli Crane holds the lead in "AZ-02 House winner?"
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Lindell’s nomination odds jumped to 63% on fresh AP coverage of Trump’s endorsement and the crowded Aug. 11 primary, keeping him the clear market favorite.
Lindell’s nomination odds jumped to 63% on fresh AP coverage of Trump’s endorsement and the crowded Aug. 11 primary, keeping him the clear market favorite.
CA-06 House winner?
Kevin Kiley has raised $2,988,805 this cycle, but Richard Pan holds the lead in the latest odds for CA-06 House winner.
Kevin Kiley has raised $2,988,805 this cycle, but Richard Pan holds the lead in the latest odds for CA-06 House winner.
Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?
Harriet Hageman has raised $3,070,024.92 this cycle, but Eric Barlow holds the lead in the latest odds for the Wyoming Republican governor nomination.
Harriet Hageman has raised $3,070,024.92 this cycle, but Eric Barlow holds the lead in the latest odds for the Wyoming Republican governor nomination.
Iowa Attorney General winner?
Brenna Bird is now at 58% and leads by 11.0 points in the Iowa Attorney General race.
Brenna Bird is now at 58% and leads by 11.0 points in the Iowa Attorney General race.
TX-15 House winner?
Bobby Pulido is now leading with 58% odds, up 12.0 points after trailing earlier.
Bobby Pulido is now leading with 58% odds, up 12.0 points after trailing earlier.
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Mark Lynch has raised $5,918,448.70 this cycle, but Ralph Norman holds the lead in the latest odds for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary.
Mark Lynch has raised $5,918,448.70 this cycle, but Ralph Norman holds the lead in the latest odds for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary.
Maine Senate winner?
Susan Collins has raised $16,169,827 this cycle, while Troy Jackson leads the latest odds for the Maine Senate race.
Susan Collins has raised $16,169,827 this cycle, while Troy Jackson leads the latest odds for the Maine Senate race.
NY-04 House winner?
Donald Trump backed Jeanine Driscoll, and she is currently at 14% in "NY-04 House winner?"
Donald Trump backed Jeanine Driscoll, and she is currently at 14% in "NY-04 House winner?"
Arizona Secretary of State winner?
Trump’s endorsement gives Alexander Kolodin a notable outside boost in the Arizona Secretary of State race, where he is currently at 15%.
Trump’s endorsement gives Alexander Kolodin a notable outside boost in the Arizona Secretary of State race, where he is currently at 15%.
Georgia Governor winner?
Donald Trump backed Rick Jackson in the Georgia governor race, and Jackson is currently at 42%.
Donald Trump backed Rick Jackson in the Georgia governor race, and Jackson is currently at 42%.
CO-04 House winner?
Eileen Laubacher has raised $10,349,940 this cycle, but Lauren Boebert holds the lead in the latest odds for "CO-04 House winner?"
Eileen Laubacher has raised $10,349,940 this cycle, but Lauren Boebert holds the lead in the latest odds for "CO-04 House winner?"
NY-17 House winner?
Mike Lawler has raised $6,731,833 this cycle, but Cait Conley holds the lead in the latest odds for "NY-17 House winner?"
Mike Lawler has raised $6,731,833 this cycle, but Cait Conley holds the lead in the latest odds for "NY-17 House winner?"
GA-14 House winner?
Shawn Harris has raised $8,098,513.75 this cycle, but Clay Fuller holds the lead in the latest odds for GA-14 House winner.
Shawn Harris has raised $8,098,513.75 this cycle, but Clay Fuller holds the lead in the latest odds for GA-14 House winner.
TX-15 House winner?
Monica De La Cruz has raised $5,273,959.93 this cycle, but Bobby Pulido holds the lead in the latest odds for "TX-15 House winner?"
Monica De La Cruz has raised $5,273,959.93 this cycle, but Bobby Pulido holds the lead in the latest odds for "TX-15 House winner?"
CA-22 House winner?
David Valadao has raised $4,927,601.63 this cycle, but Randy Villegas holds the lead in "CA-22 House winner?"
David Valadao has raised $4,927,601.63 this cycle, but Randy Villegas holds the lead in "CA-22 House winner?"
PA-08 House winner?
Rob Bresnahan has raised $5,234,585.93 this cycle, but Paige Cognetti is ahead in the latest odds for "PA-08 House winner?"
Rob Bresnahan has raised $5,234,585.93 this cycle, but Paige Cognetti is ahead in the latest odds for "PA-08 House winner?"
MO-01 Democratic nominee?
Bell’s Democratic nominee odds are back near 61% after a short-term move, and new AP coverage plus a fresh wave of rematch reporting keep the race on traders’ radar ahead of the Aug. 4 primary.
Bell’s Democratic nominee odds are back near 61% after a short-term move, and new AP coverage plus a fresh wave of rematch reporting keep the race on traders’ radar ahead of the Aug. 4 primary.
Alabama Governor winner?
Doug Jones has raised $31,053,566 this cycle, but Tommy Tuberville holds the lead in the latest odds for Alabama governor.
Doug Jones has raised $31,053,566 this cycle, but Tommy Tuberville holds the lead in the latest odds for Alabama governor.
Alaska Senate primary: 1st place
Dan Sullivan has raised $8,501,665 this cycle, but Mary Peltola is ahead in the latest odds for the Alaska Senate primary.
Dan Sullivan has raised $8,501,665 this cycle, but Mary Peltola is ahead in the latest odds for the Alaska Senate primary.
Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?
Megan Degenfelder’s odds fell to 53% while Eric Barlow’s internal-poll-driven rebound and Brent Bien’s state GOP endorsement keep pressure on her lead in the Wyoming Republican governor primary.
Megan Degenfelder’s odds fell to 53% while Eric Barlow’s internal-poll-driven rebound and Brent Bien’s state GOP endorsement keep pressure on her lead in the Wyoming Republican governor primary.
FL-04 Democratic nominee?
That’s a fresh low for Michael Kirwan in the FL-04 Democratic nominee race, below the prior low of 80%.
That’s a fresh low for Michael Kirwan in the FL-04 Democratic nominee race, below the prior low of 80%.
Wisconsin Governor winner?
Republican Party's odds are now 43%, above the previous high of 30%.
Republican Party's odds are now 43%, above the previous high of 30%.
Hawaii Republican Governor nominee?
Gary Cordery is now leading with 82% odds and has a 65.0-point margin over the prior leader.
Gary Cordery is now leading with 82% odds and has a 65.0-point margin over the prior leader.
Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)
Chicago candidates can now circulate nominating petitions, and fresh reporting again highlights Alexi Giannoulias as the strongest undeclared challenger while Brandon Johnson still has not committed to running again, keeping the market focused on a possible field-shaping entry.
Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)
Chicago candidates can now circulate nominating petitions, and fresh reporting again highlights Alexi Giannoulias as the strongest undeclared challenger while Brandon Johnson still has not committed to running again, keeping the market focused on a possible field-shaping entry.
Georgia Governor winner?
A new Georgia governor report has Keisha Lance Bottoms proposing a statewide data-center construction moratorium, with Brian Kemp publicly blasting the idea, giving traders a fresh issue-specific contrast to monitor in the race.
A new Georgia governor report has Keisha Lance Bottoms proposing a statewide data-center construction moratorium, with Brian Kemp publicly blasting the idea, giving traders a fresh issue-specific contrast to monitor in the race.
WA-03 primary: 1st place
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has raised $6,292,682.63 this cycle, while John Braun holds the lead in the latest odds for WA-03.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has raised $6,292,682.63 this cycle, while John Braun holds the lead in the latest odds for WA-03.
Texas Senate winner?
A fresh Texas poll gives James Talarico a 45% to 40% lead over Ken Paxton, and the Democratic win contract has ticked up to 46% yes, making this a trader-relevant repricing signal in a race that had been near the low-40s.
A fresh Texas poll gives James Talarico a 45% to 40% lead over Ken Paxton, and the Democratic win contract has ticked up to 46% yes, making this a trader-relevant repricing signal in a race that had been near the low-40s.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Francesca Hong’s nominee odds hit 91% while early in-person absentee voting began and a judge heard arguments in the ballot-cancellation lawsuit, reinforcing her hold on the Democratic primary.
Francesca Hong’s nominee odds hit 91% while early in-person absentee voting began and a judge heard arguments in the ballot-cancellation lawsuit, reinforcing her hold on the Democratic primary.
FL-25 Republican nominee?
George Moraitis's odds fell below the previous low of 51%, setting a fresh low for "FL-25 Republican nominee?"
George Moraitis's odds fell below the previous low of 51%, setting a fresh low for "FL-25 Republican nominee?"
FL-24 Democratic nominee?
Shevrin Jones's odds fell below the prior low of 66%, setting a new bottom for "FL-24 Democratic nominee?"
Shevrin Jones's odds fell below the prior low of 66%, setting a new bottom for "FL-24 Democratic nominee?"
FL-19 Democratic nominee?
Howard Sapp's odds reached 85%, setting a fresh high for the FL-19 Democratic nominee race.
Howard Sapp's odds reached 85%, setting a fresh high for the FL-19 Democratic nominee race.
FL-09 Republican nominee?
Thomas Chalifoux's odds fell below the previous low of 61%, setting a new floor for "FL-09 Republican nominee?" at 43%.
Thomas Chalifoux's odds fell below the previous low of 61%, setting a new floor for "FL-09 Republican nominee?" at 43%.
CA-13 House winner?
That’s below the previous low of 31% for Republican Party in "CA-13 House winner?"
That’s below the previous low of 31% for Republican Party in "CA-13 House winner?"
Texas Governor winner?
Fresh reporting shows Greg Abbott backing tighter Texas data-center restrictions, keeping a salient utility-bill issue in focus for the governor race as Republicans remain favored in the market.
Fresh reporting shows Greg Abbott backing tighter Texas data-center restrictions, keeping a salient utility-bill issue in focus for the governor race as Republicans remain favored in the market.
FL-04 Democratic nominee?
LaShonda Holloway's odds reached 79%, breaking above the prior high of 10%.
LaShonda Holloway's odds reached 79%, breaking above the prior high of 10%.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Early in-person voting began in Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary as a judge prepares to hear a ballot-spoiling lawsuit, keeping the Hong-Crowley field volatile ahead of Aug. 11.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Early in-person voting began in Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary as a judge prepares to hear a ballot-spoiling lawsuit, keeping the Hong-Crowley field volatile ahead of Aug. 11.
GA-13 special election winner?
Fresh AP reporting keeps the July 28 GA-13 special election in focus, and Marcye Scott remains priced near 95% as the clear market leader.
Fresh AP reporting keeps the July 28 GA-13 special election in focus, and Marcye Scott remains priced near 95% as the clear market leader.
FL-07 Republican nominee?
Ryan Elijah's odds reached 81%, breaking the prior high of 11% in "FL-07 Republican nominee?"
Ryan Elijah's odds reached 81%, breaking the prior high of 11% in "FL-07 Republican nominee?"
GA-13 special election winner?
Fresh AP coverage of today’s special election and low turnout coincides with Scott reaching a new high near 95%, keeping her as the clear market favorite into Election Day.
Fresh AP coverage of today’s special election and low turnout coincides with Scott reaching a new high near 95%, keeping her as the clear market favorite into Election Day.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Gretchen Whitmer’s endorsement of Haley Stevens adds another major establishment boost in the final stretch before Michigan’s August 4 primary, sharpening the contrast with Abdul El-Sayed and keeping the race highly tradable.
Gretchen Whitmer’s endorsement of Haley Stevens adds another major establishment boost in the final stretch before Michigan’s August 4 primary, sharpening the contrast with Abdul El-Sayed and keeping the race highly tradable.
GA-13 special election winner?
Everton Blair Jr.'s odds are down 43.0 points and are now 5% in "GA-13 special election winner?"
Everton Blair Jr.'s odds are down 43.0 points and are now 5% in "GA-13 special election winner?"
FL-09 Republican nominee?
Ben Butler is now leading with 49% support, up 9.0 points ahead of the prior leader.
Ben Butler is now leading with 49% support, up 9.0 points ahead of the prior leader.
FL-09 Republican nominee?
That’s below the previous low of 15% for Jorge Martinez in the Florida 9th District Republican nominee race.
That’s below the previous low of 15% for Jorge Martinez in the Florida 9th District Republican nominee race.
GA-13 special election winner?
Fresh reporting says only 8,695 voters had cast ballots by Thursday in the July 28 Georgia 13th special election, keeping attention on a low-turnout race where Marcye Scott is still the market leader.
GA-13 special election winner?
Fresh reporting says only 8,695 voters had cast ballots by Thursday in the July 28 Georgia 13th special election, keeping attention on a low-turnout race where Marcye Scott is still the market leader.
FL-06 Democratic nominee?
Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera's odds are now 28%, up from the prior high of 7%.
Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera's odds are now 28%, up from the prior high of 7%.
Alaska Governor winner? (Person)
Fresh reporting says Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has raised about $1.8 million, keeping him the fundraising leader and reinforcing a trader-relevant mismatch with his still-midrange market price.
Fresh reporting says Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has raised about $1.8 million, keeping him the fundraising leader and reinforcing a trader-relevant mismatch with his still-midrange market price.
FL-07 Democratic nominee?
Bale Dalton's odds are now 88%, above the previous high of 74%.
Bale Dalton's odds are now 88%, above the previous high of 74%.
FL-05 Democratic nominee?
Rachel Grage's odds are now 85%, above the previous high of 74%.
Rachel Grage's odds are now 85%, above the previous high of 74%.
Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?
Bryan Steil has raised $4,376,364.75 this cycle, but Tom Tiffany holds the lead in the latest odds for "Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?"
Bryan Steil has raised $4,376,364.75 this cycle, but Tom Tiffany holds the lead in the latest odds for "Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?"
NH-01 Republican nominee?
DiLorenzo picked up another prominent Republican endorsement just days after Trump’s backing, reinforcing the market leader as GOP support consolidates behind him.
DiLorenzo picked up another prominent Republican endorsement just days after Trump’s backing, reinforcing the market leader as GOP support consolidates behind him.
FL-20 Democratic nominee?
Debbie Wasserman Schultz is now leading with 74% odds and has a 49.0-point margin over the prior leader.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz is now leading with 74% odds and has a 49.0-point margin over the prior leader.
FL-14 Republican nominee?
That’s below the previous low of 29% for Mike Beltran in the FL-14 Republican nominee race.
That’s below the previous low of 29% for Mike Beltran in the FL-14 Republican nominee race.
GA-13 special election winner?
Marcye Scott's odds are up 17.0 points and are now at 56% in "GA-13 special election winner?" over a 3-day streak.
Marcye Scott's odds are up 17.0 points and are now at 56% in "GA-13 special election winner?" over a 3-day streak.
FL-07 Republican nominee?
Ryan Elijah is now at 84% and leads by 69.0 points in the FL-07 Republican nominee race.
Ryan Elijah is now at 84% and leads by 69.0 points in the FL-07 Republican nominee race.
New Mexico Governor winner?
That tops the prior high of 16% for Republican Party in the New Mexico governor race.
That tops the prior high of 16% for Republican Party in the New Mexico governor race.
Maine Senate winner? (Person)
Jackson’s nomination is now confirmed, locking in the replacement candidate against Susan Collins and leaving the market to reprice the general-election matchup rather than the convention scramble.
Jackson’s nomination is now confirmed, locking in the replacement candidate against Susan Collins and leaving the market to reprice the general-election matchup rather than the convention scramble.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh reporting shows Democrats are pushing to let absentee voters recast ballots and the RGA is adding more money to boost Francesca Hong, extending the volatility around the Aug. 11 primary.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh reporting shows Democrats are pushing to let absentee voters recast ballots and the RGA is adding more money to boost Francesca Hong, extending the volatility around the Aug. 11 primary.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh AP and WisPolitics reporting show the absentee-ballot fight is still active and Republicans are now spending more to shape the crowded primary, keeping the Hong-Crowley race tradable ahead of the Aug. 11 vote.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Fresh AP and WisPolitics reporting show the absentee-ballot fight is still active and Republicans are now spending more to shape the crowded primary, keeping the Hong-Crowley race tradable ahead of the Aug. 11 vote.
Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?
Mallory McMorrow has raised $11,386,720 this cycle, but Jocelyn Benson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Michigan Democratic governor nomination.
Mallory McMorrow has raised $11,386,720 this cycle, but Jocelyn Benson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Michigan Democratic governor nomination.
Hawaii Governor winner?
A fresh indictment of Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke adds a concrete corruption overhang to Hawaii’s Democratic side, making the lieutenant governor race and broader Democratic ticket more sensitive to negative headlines.
A fresh indictment of Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke adds a concrete corruption overhang to Hawaii’s Democratic side, making the lieutenant governor race and broader Democratic ticket more sensitive to negative headlines.
Alaska Governor winner? (Person)
Click Bishop is now leading Alaska's governor race at 43%, with an 11.0-point margin over the prior leader.
Click Bishop is now leading Alaska's governor race at 43%, with an 11.0-point margin over the prior leader.
GA-13 special election winner?
Marcye Scott is now leading the GA-13 special election winner race with 55% odds, up 10.0 points from the prior leader.
Marcye Scott is now leading the GA-13 special election winner race with 55% odds, up 10.0 points from the prior leader.
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Fresh reporting that Los Angeles homelessness rose 3.4% year over year adds a new negative catalyst for Karen Bass, whose market remains near 0.63 despite the setback.
Fresh reporting that Los Angeles homelessness rose 3.4% year over year adds a new negative catalyst for Karen Bass, whose market remains near 0.63 despite the setback.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Mike Rogers's odds are up 69.0 points and are now at 32% in the Michigan Senate winner? (Person) race.
Mike Rogers's odds are up 69.0 points and are now at 32% in the Michigan Senate winner? (Person) race.
Iowa Senate winner? (Person)
A new $17 million Senate Majority PAC TV buy targeting Ashley Hinson underscores that Democrats are still treating Iowa as a live pickup fight, even as Hinson remains the market favorite at 62% and Turek has slipped to 39%.
A new $17 million Senate Majority PAC TV buy targeting Ashley Hinson underscores that Democrats are still treating Iowa as a live pickup fight, even as Hinson remains the market favorite at 62% and Turek has slipped to 39%.
Wisconsin Governor winner?
A fresh AP-reported lawsuit seeks to let Wisconsin voters void absentee ballots already cast for dropped-out governor candidates and vote again, adding another near-term procedural risk in a race the market is actively repricing.
A fresh AP-reported lawsuit seeks to let Wisconsin voters void absentee ballots already cast for dropped-out governor candidates and vote again, adding another near-term procedural risk in a race the market is actively repricing.
DE-AL Republican nominee?
Earl Cooper is now leading with 96.5% odds and a 68.5-point margin.
Earl Cooper is now leading with 96.5% odds and a 68.5-point margin.
TX-15 House winner?
Democratic Party's odds are up 17.0 points and are now at 46% in "TX-15 House winner?" over a 3-day streak.
Democratic Party's odds are up 17.0 points and are now at 46% in "TX-15 House winner?" over a 3-day streak.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Mike Lindell is now the Republican front-runner for Minnesota governor at 55%, with a 10.0-point lead.
Mike Lindell is now the Republican front-runner for Minnesota governor at 55%, with a 10.0-point lead.
Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place
Paul Renner's odds are up 32.0 points and are now at 61% in the Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place.
Paul Renner's odds are up 32.0 points and are now at 61% in the Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place.
Florida Republican Governor primary: 3rd place
The latest poll has Byron Donalds at 32.2%, but Jay Collins leads the odds and Donalds is in 3rd place in this primary.
The latest poll has Byron Donalds at 32.2%, but Jay Collins leads the odds and Donalds is in 3rd place in this primary.
South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
Donald Trump backed Darline Graham Nordone for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, and her odds are at 72%.
Donald Trump backed Darline Graham Nordone for the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, and her odds are at 72%.
TN-09 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Brent Taylor for "TN-09 Republican nominee?", and Taylor is currently at 70%.
Donald Trump backed Brent Taylor for "TN-09 Republican nominee?", and Taylor is currently at 70%.
Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?
Cindy Holscher's odds are down 42.0 points and are now at 68% in "Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Cindy Holscher's odds are down 42.0 points and are now at 68% in "Kansas Democratic Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
MI-10 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Michael Bouchard in the MI-10 Republican nominee race, and Bouchard is currently at 97%.
Donald Trump backed Michael Bouchard in the MI-10 Republican nominee race, and Bouchard is currently at 97%.
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
Graham Platner has raised $21,050,419 this cycle, but Troy Jackson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Maine Democratic Senate nominee race.
Graham Platner has raised $21,050,419 this cycle, but Troy Jackson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Maine Democratic Senate nominee race.
Connecticut Democratic Governor nominee?
Luke Bronin has raised $2,901,978.94 this cycle, including $598,270.54 in the last period, while Ned Lamont leads the latest odds.
Luke Bronin has raised $2,901,978.94 this cycle, including $598,270.54 in the last period, while Ned Lamont leads the latest odds.
Maine Senate winner? (Person)
Troy Jackson is now at 66% in "Maine Senate winner? (Person)," and recent news says he leads Maine Democrats' Senate nomination process after Platner's withdrawal.
Troy Jackson is now at 66% in "Maine Senate winner? (Person)," and recent news says he leads Maine Democrats' Senate nomination process after Platner's withdrawal.
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Mike Lindell ahead by 24.0 points, but Lisa Demuth is the odds leader and Lindell's current odds are 0.45.
The latest poll has Mike Lindell ahead by 24.0 points, but Lisa Demuth is the odds leader and Lindell's current odds are 0.45.
Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?
Barnes is ahead by 21.0 points in the latest poll, but Francesca Hong leads the odds for the Wisconsin Democratic governor nomination.
Barnes is ahead by 21.0 points in the latest poll, but Francesca Hong leads the odds for the Wisconsin Democratic governor nomination.
MI-07 Democratic nominee?
Bridget Ann Brink's odds are down 65.0 points and are now at 19% in "MI-07 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Bridget Ann Brink's odds are down 65.0 points and are now at 19% in "MI-07 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed John James for Michigan governor, and James is currently at 77% in "Michigan Republican Governor nominee?"
Donald Trump backed John James for Michigan governor, and James is currently at 77% in "Michigan Republican Governor nominee?"
Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?
Donald Trump backed Mike Lindell for Minnesota Republican governor nominee, and Lindell is currently at 40%.
Donald Trump backed Mike Lindell for Minnesota Republican governor nominee, and Lindell is currently at 40%.
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?
Shenna Bellows's odds are down 18.0 points over a 3-day streak and are now 10%.
Shenna Bellows's odds are down 18.0 points over a 3-day streak and are now 10%.
LA-02 Democratic nominee?
AFL-CIO is a notable backer for Troy Carter in "LA-02 Democratic nominee?"
AFL-CIO is a notable backer for Troy Carter in "LA-02 Democratic nominee?"
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
The latest poll has Jay Collins ahead by 8.8 points, but Byron Donalds is still the odds leader.
The latest poll has Jay Collins ahead by 8.8 points, but Byron Donalds is still the odds leader.
Michigan Republican Senate nominee?
Donald Trump backed Mike Rogers in the Michigan Republican Senate nominee race, and Rogers is at 96%.
Donald Trump backed Mike Rogers in the Michigan Republican Senate nominee race, and Rogers is at 96%.
FL-14 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Mike Beltran, who is at 15% in "FL-14 Republican nominee?"
Donald Trump backed Mike Beltran, who is at 15% in "FL-14 Republican nominee?"
MI-13 Democratic nominee?
Shri Thanedar's odds are up 23.0 points and are now at 20% in "MI-13 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
Shri Thanedar's odds are up 23.0 points and are now at 20% in "MI-13 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.
MN-07 Republican nominee?
Donald Trump backed Michelle Fischbach in the MN-07 Republican nominee race, and her odds are currently at 96%.
Donald Trump backed Michelle Fischbach in the MN-07 Republican nominee race, and her odds are currently at 96%.
Michigan Senate winner? (Person)
Donald Trump endorsed Mike Rogers, who is currently at 29%.
Donald Trump endorsed Mike Rogers, who is currently at 29%.
