Prediction Edge

Insights

Fresh odds moves, new highs and lows, trends, lead changes, polling, fundraising, endorsements, and news across active elections.

High Impact Insights

Chris Carmichael
Chris Carmichael
29mHigh Impact

KS-04 Democratic nominee?

51%

Chris Carmichael is now at 51%, with a 5.0-point lead in the Kansas 4th District Democratic nominee race.

Yen Bailey
Yen Bailey
29mHigh Impact

FL-02 Democratic nominee?

35%

Yen Bailey is now at 35%, with a 7.0-point lead in the FL-02 Democratic nominee race.

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

56%

Jarrett Keohokalole is now leading with 56% support, up 6.0 points over the prior leader.

Tom Perriello
Tom Perriello
44mHigh Impact

VA-05 Democratic nominee?

93%

Tom Perriello is now at 93% and leads by 86.0 points in the VA-05 Democratic nominee race.

Rick Crosson
Rick Crosson
44mHigh Impact

WI-08 Democratic nominee?

50%

Rick Crosson is now at 50% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the WI-08 Democratic nominee race.

Heidi Kuhn
Heidi Kuhn
44mHigh Impact

TN-08 Democratic nominee?

75%

Heidi Kuhn is now the front-runner for the TN-08 Democratic nominee spot at 75%, with a 48.0-point lead.

Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens
14dHigh Impact

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

12%

The poll has Haley Stevens ahead by 30.0 points, while Abdul El-Sayed leads the latest odds.

NH-01 Republican nominee?

27%

The poll has Hollie Noveletsky ahead by 14.0 points, while Anthony DiLorenzo leads the latest odds.

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Latest Insights

  • Chris Carmichael
    Chris Carmichael
    29mHigh Impact
    51%

    KS-04 Democratic nominee?

    Chris Carmichael is now at 51%, with a 5.0-point lead in the Kansas 4th District Democratic nominee race.

    Trade
  • Yen Bailey
    Yen Bailey
    29mHigh Impact
    35%

    FL-02 Democratic nominee?

    Yen Bailey is now at 35%, with a 7.0-point lead in the FL-02 Democratic nominee race.

    Trade
  • Jarrett Keohokalole
    Jarrett Keohokalole
    29mHigh Impact
    56%

    HI-01 Democratic nominee?

    Jarrett Keohokalole is now leading with 56% support, up 6.0 points over the prior leader.

    Trade
  • Tom Perriello
    Tom Perriello
    44mHigh Impact
    93%

    VA-05 Democratic nominee?

    Tom Perriello is now at 93% and leads by 86.0 points in the VA-05 Democratic nominee race.

    Trade
  • Rick Crosson
    Rick Crosson
    44mHigh Impact
    50%

    WI-08 Democratic nominee?

    Rick Crosson is now at 50% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the WI-08 Democratic nominee race.

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  • Heidi Kuhn
    Heidi Kuhn
    44mHigh Impact
    75%

    TN-08 Democratic nominee?

    Heidi Kuhn is now the front-runner for the TN-08 Democratic nominee spot at 75%, with a 48.0-point lead.

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  • Haley Stevens
    Haley Stevens
    14dHigh Impact
    12%

    Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

    The poll has Haley Stevens ahead by 30.0 points, while Abdul El-Sayed leads the latest odds.

    Trade
  • Hollie Noveletsky
    Hollie Noveletsky
    17dHigh Impact
    27%

    NH-01 Republican nominee?

    The poll has Hollie Noveletsky ahead by 14.0 points, while Anthony DiLorenzo leads the latest odds.

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  • Tallahassee Mayoral Election

    Loranne Ausley is now leading with 41% and has a 14.0-point edge.

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  • St. Petersburg Mayoral Election

    Charlie Crist is now at 72% and leads by 53.0 points after trailing earlier.

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  • Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee?

    N'Kiyla Thomas is now the leader in "Oklahoma Democratic Senate nominee?" with 91% odds, ahead by 85.9 points.

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  • Delaware Republican Senate nominee?

    Michael Katz is now the front-runner for the Delaware Republican Senate nomination with 83% odds, ahead by 69.0 points.

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  • MO-03 Democratic nominee?

    Bethany E Mann is now the front-runner at 92%, with an 83.0-point lead.

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  • MO-05 Republican nominee?

    Rick Brattin is now at 64% and leads by 45.0 points in "MO-05 Republican nominee?"

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  • MI-04 Democratic nominee?

    Sean Andrew McCann is now the leader in the MI-04 Democratic nominee race and is at 98%.

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  • MI-10 Democratic nominee?

    Christina Hines is now leading with 59% and has a 22-point margin over the prior leader.

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  • MO-02 Democratic nominee?

    Fred Wellman is now at 84% and has moved ahead of the prior leader in the Missouri 2nd District Democratic nomination race.

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  • MA-08 Democratic nominee?

    Patrick Roath is now at 58% and leads by 18.0 points in the MA-08 Democratic nominee race.

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  • MI-01 Republican nominee?

    Jack Bergman is now at 92%, ahead by 88.0 points after trailing earlier.

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  • MI-01 Democratic nominee?

    Callie Barr is now at 56%, with a 10.0-point lead in the MI-01 Democratic nominee race.

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  • HI-01 Republican nominee?

    Adriel Lam is now at 99%, with a 97.0-point lead after overtaking the previous leader.

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  • KS-01 Democratic nominee?

    Colin McRoberts is now leading with 71% odds, up 20.0 points from the prior leader.

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  • Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

    Jackson’s odds ticked up to 0.68 as fresh reporting confirmed Platner’s withdrawal and a July 25 convention to pick the replacement nominee before the July 27 deadline.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Person)

    Platner’s withdrawal keeps the Maine Senate market in active repricing mode because Democrats must now settle on a new nominee before the July 27 ballot deadline.

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  • MI-01 Republican nominee?

    Matthew DenOtter has raised $3,513,594 this cycle, but Jack Bergman leads the latest odds for the MI-01 Republican nominee race.

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  • ME-02 House winner?

    Paul LePage’s party now sits at 67% to win Maine’s 2nd District, a sharp repricing that keeps the open-seat race on traders’ radar even as reporting still points to the same LePage-Dunlap general-election matchup.

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  • 2028 Democratic presidential nominee

    Platner’s exit forces Democrats to choose a replacement by July 27, creating a fresh repricing risk for the Maine Senate race and the broader 2028 Democratic narrative around him.

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  • Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

    Bellows rose to 0.31 after Platner formally withdrew, as reporting says Democrats are racing to choose a replacement nominee by July 27.

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  • Cory Mills
    43%43%

    FL-07 Republican nominee?

    This is Cory Mills's highest level in the last 52 days, topping the prior extreme of 0%.

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  • Daniel Keenan
    15%11%

    AZ-05 Republican nominee?

    That’s below his previous low of 26% in the Arizona 5th District Republican nominee race.

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  • FL-07 Republican nominee?

    Mike Johnson has raised $17,548,949.57 this cycle, while Ryan Elijah holds the lead in the latest odds.

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  • Texas State Senate winner?

    Fresh reporting shows James Talarico outraised Ken Paxton more than 3-to-1 in Q2 while new coverage of Paxton’s voting-address allegations adds another negative backdrop, reinforcing that this race remains highly tradable despite GOP favoritism.

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  • Ryan Elijah
    57%46%

    FL-07 Republican nominee?

    Ryan Elijah's odds are now 57%, up from the prior high of 11%.

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  • Bale Dalton
    89%15%

    FL-07 Democratic nominee?

    Bale Dalton's odds in "FL-07 Democratic nominee?" are above the previous high of 74%.

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  • AZ-01 Democratic nominee?

    Her odds are now 44%, above the previous high of 29%.

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  • Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

    Platner’s exit has turned the Maine Democratic Senate nominee race into a compressed replacement contest, with the party needing to settle on a new nominee by July 27 and multiple candidates already in motion.

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  • Mark Lamb
    82%27%

    AZ-05 Republican nominee?

    Fresh local coverage this week keeps Lamb’s misconduct allegations front-and-center, and the market has repriced him sharply higher, making him the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary.

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  • Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

    Rodriguez’s nominee price is up to 34% after David Crowley ended his campaign and endorsed her, leaving her as the main consolidation beneficiary in Wisconsin’s crowded Democratic primary.

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  • CA-22 House winner?

    That’s below the previous low of 37% for Republican Party in "CA-22 House winner?"

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  • Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

    Nick Begich III's odds fell below the previous low of 68%, setting a fresh 60-day low for the Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person) race.

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  • Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

    Graham Platner has raised $16,312,222 this cycle, but Troy Jackson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Maine Democratic Senate nominee race.

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  • Luke Murphy
    24%14%

    FL-02 Republican nominee?

    Luke Murphy's odds reached 24%, topping the prior high of 10%.

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  • NY-17 House winner?

    Republican Party's odds in "NY-17 House winner?" are now 25%, below the prior low of 36%.

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  • Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

    Graham Platner said he plans to withdraw from Maine’s Senate race, and Democrats now have a short window to pick a replacement for a seat that could help determine Senate control.

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  • Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

    Fresh reporting says Graham Platner plans to exit the Maine Senate race, creating a replacement scramble in a pivotal seat that could affect Democrats' path to Senate control.

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  • CO-08 House winner?

    That’s below the previous low of 32% for the Republican Party in "CO-08 House winner?"

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  • FL-19 Republican nominee?

    Jim Oberweis has raised $4,360,995.58 this cycle, but Jim Schwartzel holds the lead in the latest odds for the FL-19 Republican nominee race.

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  • Maine State Senate winner?

    Platner’s planned exit gives Maine Democrats a short window to replace their nominee before the July 13 deadline, a concrete ballot-access development that can still move Senate pricing.

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  • Chicago Mayor winner?

    Susan Mendoza's odds are now 32%, above the previous high of 20%.

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  • Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

    Fresh reporting on the crowded Alaska at-large race highlights Bill Hill as one of Nick Begich’s two main challengers, and Hill’s odds have jumped to 40% while Begich eased to 65%.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Party)

    Graham Platner’s planned exit adds fresh replacement risk in the Maine Senate race, and Democratic odds jumped to 64% from 59% over the last hour as the party moves to name a new nominee by July 27.

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  • Arizona Republican Attorney General nominee?

    Petersen’s Republican nominee odds jumped from 70% to 83% in the past hour, making him a much stronger favorite while Rodney Glassman fell to 17%.

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  • Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

    Graham Platner’s suspension of his Maine Senate campaign opens a fast-moving replacement fight before the July 13 ballot deadline, creating a new downside risk to Democrats’ only clearly favorable pickup path for Senate control.

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  • Democratic Senate Seat Count (2028)

    Fresh AP reporting says Graham Platner has not said whether he will drop out, and Democrats are already scrambling over a replacement process in a race that could help decide Senate control.

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  • Maine State Senate winner?

    Fresh reporting says Maine Democrats are actively planning how to replace Graham Platner if he exits, keeping the race highly tradable ahead of the July 13 withdrawal deadline and July 27 replacement window.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Person)

    Fresh reporting says Maine Democrats are already gaming out a replacement path for Graham Platner, keeping the race in flux and making Collins/alternate-Democrat pricing more volatile near the ballot deadline.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Person)

    Shah’s Maine Senate odds fell to 7.5% while fresh reporting says Democrats are actively lining up replacement options for Graham Platner, keeping the market in rapid reprice mode.

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  • Jon Ossoff
    15%3%

    2028 Democratic presidential nominee

    Jon Ossoff’s odds moved up from 12% to 15% in the last hour, and fresh coverage is again framing him as a real 2028 contender, which keeps him in the top tier of the Democratic field.

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  • Maine State Senate winner?

    Fresh reporting shows top Democrats and the state party pushing Graham Platner to exit, with a July 13 replacement deadline keeping the race highly volatile for the Democratic side.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Person)

    Collins has ticked up to 45% while new reporting says Platner still hasn’t ruled out staying in the race, but Democrats are already gaming out a replacement path if he exits.

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  • Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

    Matt Schultz's odds fell below the prior low of 18%, setting a fresh low for Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person).

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  • Bill Hill
    40%11%

    Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

    Bill Hill's odds are now 40%, above the previous high of 29%.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Party)

    Bernie Sanders has become the latest prominent Democrat to urge Graham Platner out of the Maine Senate race, extending the withdrawal-risk storyline ahead of the July 13 replacement deadline.

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  • Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

    Fresh reporting says major Democrats are pulling support and Senate Democrats may stop investing if Platner stays in the race, raising the odds Democrats need a replacement in a must-win Maine seat.

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  • Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)

    Dr. Lisa Nee’s entry adds another declared candidate to an already crowded 2027 Chicago mayoral field, reinforcing the race’s growing depth and potential for vote-splitting.

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  • Michigan Republican Senate nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Mike Rogers in the Michigan Republican Senate nominee race, and Rogers is at 96%.

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  • Nirav Shah
    17%9%

    Maine Senate winner? (Person)

    Nirav Shah’s Senate odds surged from 8% to 17% in the past hour as fresh reporting on Graham Platner’s sexual-assault allegation and possible ballot replacement keeps the Maine race in flux.

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  • FL-14 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Mike Beltran, who is at 15% in "FL-14 Republican nominee?"

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  • West Virginia governor winner? (2028)

    Republican Party's odds in "West Virginia governor winner? (2028)" fell below the prior low of 87%, setting a new floor at 21%.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Party)

    New public reporting says Schumer and DSCC leaders are pushing Graham Platner out, keeping Maine Democrats’ replacement risk and ballot-deadline pressure front and center in a closely watched Senate race.

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  • Maine Senate winner? (Party)

    Fresh reporting that Schumer is calling on Graham Platner to end his campaign keeps withdrawal and replacement risk front and center in a race the market has already repriced sharply.

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  • Maine State Senate winner?

    The Republican win contract jumped from 0.42 to 0.85 in the past hour as fresh national reporting and party pressure intensify the Platner controversy, making the race materially more volatile for traders.

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  • CA-13 House winner?

    This is a fresh high for Democratic Party in "CA-13 House winner?", topping the previous high of 77%.

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  • Maine State Senate winner?

    Fresh reporting that the Maine Democratic Party is calling on Graham Platner to drop out, alongside canceled town halls and a July 13 ballot-replacement deadline, makes the Senate race more volatile for traders.

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  • Ed Case
    40%11%

    HI-01 Democratic nominee?

    Ed Case's odds fell below the prior low of 51%, setting a new floor for "HI-01 Democratic nominee?"

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  • Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?

    Aaron Guckian's odds are now 44%, below the previous low of 60%.

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  • FL-11 Republican nominee?

    Baker’s odds fell to 36% while Joe Strada sits at 50%, keeping the FL-11 Republican primary tightly contested and trader-relevant after fresh public reporting on Strada’s ad push and candidate field.

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  • Georgia Attorney General winner?

    That’s below the previous low of 54% for the "Georgia Attorney General winner?" contest.

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  • Who will win the Attorney General race in Iowa?

    That’s below the previous low of 57% for the Iowa Attorney General race.

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  • Ohio Senate winner?

    The Ohio GOP contract surged from 46% to 63% in the last hour, a large repricing that puts Republicans well above the Democrat side and makes the race newly tradable off the latest Brown-Husted polling backdrop.

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  • Tim Wilkins
    39%25%

    FL-11 Republican nominee?

    That tops his previous high of 14% in the FL-11 Republican nominee race.

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  • MI-07 Democratic nominee?

    William Lawrence’s primary contract jumped from 15% to 50% in a day while Bridget Brink fell to 50%, and fresh reporting says the July 9 debate collapsed after Brink and Maasdam rejected the proposed terms, leaving the race more volatile and tradable.

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  • BK
    40%41%

    FL-22 Republican nominee?

    Kaiser’s price jumped from 81% to 40% in the last hour, and recent coverage of the crowded, ideology-driven Republican field keeps the repricing trader-relevant.

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  • Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

    Hong’s contract moved up to 49% as fresh coverage highlighted expanding DSA-backed organizing and new attention around her campaign, keeping her tied for the race’s top tier and worth monitoring against Rodriguez and Barnes.

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  • MI-13 Democratic nominee?

    Donavan McKinney is now priced at 83% for the MI-13 Democratic nomination while Shri Thanedar has fallen to 19%, reinforcing the market’s earlier repricing after fresh local coverage of the two-candidate primary.

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  • Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

    McMorrow’s suspension has left Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed as the main Democratic contenders, and Stevens’ contract has repriced sharply higher, making the primary market much tighter around the final two-candidate race.

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  • MI-13 Democratic nominee?

    Shri Thanedar's odds are up 23.0 points and are now at 20% in "MI-13 Democratic nominee?" over a 3-day streak.

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  • Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

    Mallory McMorrow has suspended her Michigan Senate campaign, and the market is already repricing the Democratic primary around Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.

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  • Mike Rogers
    29%67%

    Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

    Mallory McMorrow has suspended her Michigan Senate campaign, a structural change that should tighten the Democratic primary around Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens and can force immediate repricing.

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  • MN-07 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Michelle Fischbach in the MN-07 Republican nominee race, and her odds are currently at 96%.

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  • Michigan Senate winner? (Person)

    Donald Trump endorsed Mike Rogers, who is currently at 29%.

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  • Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

    Donald Trump backed John James in the Michigan Republican governor nomination race, and James is currently at 84%.

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  • Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

    Perry Johnson has raised $29,704,589 this cycle, while John James holds the lead in the latest odds for the Michigan Republican governor nomination.

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  • Mike Lindell
    26%16%

    Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

    Mike Lindell's odds are up 16.0 points and are now 26% in "Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.

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  • CA-07 House winner?

    Doris Matsui has raised $2,959,675 this cycle, but Mai Vang holds the lead in the latest odds for CA-07 House winner.

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  • CA-04 House winner?

    Eric Jones has raised $8,131,514 this cycle, but Mike Thompson leads the latest odds for CA-04 House winner.

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  • TN-04 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Scott DesJarlais in the TN-04 Republican nominee race, and DesJarlais is currently at 96%.

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  • AL-01 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Jerry Carl in the AL-01 Republican nominee race, and Jerry Carl is currently at 95%.

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  • Wyoming Republican Governor nominee?

    Harriet Hageman has raised $3,070,024.92 this cycle, but Megan Degenfelder leads the latest odds for the Wyoming Republican governor nomination.

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  • Kansas Democratic Senate nominee?

    Sharice Davids has raised $2,937,808 this cycle, but Adam Hamilton holds the lead in the latest odds for the Kansas Democratic Senate nominee race.

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  • Florida Democratic Senate nominee?

    Josh Weil has raised $15,933,478 this cycle, but Alexander Vindman holds the lead in the latest odds for "Florida Democratic Senate nominee?"

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  • Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee?

    Angie Craig has raised $9,290,611.68 this cycle, but Peggy Flanagan holds the lead in the latest odds for the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee race.

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  • Florida Republican Governor nominee?

    Jimmy Patronis has raised $3,132,076.59 this cycle, while Byron Donalds leads the latest odds for the Florida Republican governor nomination.

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  • Michigan Democratic Governor nominee?

    McMorrow has raised $8,624,066 this cycle, but Jocelyn Benson holds the lead in the latest odds for the Michigan Democratic governor nomination.

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  • Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?

    Bryan Steil has raised $4,376,364.75 this cycle, but Tom Tiffany holds the lead in the latest odds for "Wisconsin Republican Governor nominee?"

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  • Gerald Malloy
    63%17%

    VT-AL Republican nominee?

    Gerald Malloy's odds are up 17.0 points and are now at 63% in "VT-AL Republican nominee?" over a 3-day streak.

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  • MI-10 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Michael Bouchard for "MI-10 Republican nominee?"; Bouchard is currently at 76%.

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  • AL-01 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Rhett Marques for "AL-01 Republican nominee?"; Marques is currently at 13%.

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  • FL-02 Republican nominee?

    Keith Gross has raised $5,680,863 this cycle, but Jim Norton holds the lead in the latest odds for the Florida 2nd District Republican nomination.

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  • 2028 Republican VP nominee

    Ted Cruz has raised $8,266,381 this cycle, but Marco Rubio holds the lead in the 2028 Republican VP nominee odds.

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  • 2028 Republican VP nominee

    Donald Trump backed Byron Donalds for the 2028 Republican VP nominee race, and Donalds is currently at 3%.

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  • Perry Johnson
    20%26%

    Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

    Perry Johnson's odds are up 26.0 points and are now at 20% in "Michigan Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.

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  • Mark Lamb
    32%23%

    AZ-05 Republican nominee?

    Mark Lamb's odds are down 23.0 points and are now at 32% over a 3-day streak.

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  • FL-19 Republican nominee?

    Jim Schwartzel is ahead by 7.6 points in the latest poll, but Catalina Lauf leads the odds for the FL-19 Republican nominee race.

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  • 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

    Jon Ossoff has raised $60,439,612.91 this cycle, but JD Vance leads the latest odds for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner.

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  • Kansas Republican Governor nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Ty Masterson in the Kansas Republican governor nomination race, and Masterson is at 81%.

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  • Iowa Senate winner? (Person)

    Donald Trump backed Ashley Hinson, and she is currently at 64% for the Iowa Senate race.

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  • CA-06 House winner?

    Kevin Kiley now has Donald Trump’s backing in "CA-06 House winner?" and is currently at 20%.

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  • Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

    Mandela Barnes has raised $42,336,589 this cycle, while Sara Rodriguez leads the latest odds by 0.12.

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  • FL-27 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Maria Elvira Salazar in the "FL-27 Republican nominee?" contest, and her current odds are 97%.

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  • Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Mike Mazzei for the Oklahoma Republican governor nomination, and Mazzei is currently at 75%.

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  • Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Marsha Blackburn, and she is currently at 97% for "Tennessee Republican Governor nominee?"

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  • FL-07 Republican nominee?

    Donald Trump backed Cory Mills in the FL-07 Republican nominee race, and Mills is currently at 85%.

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  • Florida Republican Governor nominee?

    Byron Donalds's odds are up 5.1 points and are now 94% over a 3-day streak.

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  • Florida Democratic Governor nominee?

    Jerry Demings has raised $81,084,464 this cycle, but David Jolly holds the lead in the latest odds for "Florida Democratic Governor nominee?"

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  • LA-05 Republican nominee?

    Blake Miguez has raised $6,176,129.74 this cycle, but Michael Echols leads the latest odds for the Louisiana-05 Republican nomination.

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  • New Hampshire Democratic Governor nominee?

    Cinde Warmington's odds are up 15.0 points and are now at 90% over a 3-day streak.

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  • Lisa Demuth
    28%9%

    Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

    Lisa Demuth is now at 28% in "Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?" after a 9.0-point drop over 3 days.

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  • Mike Cox
    14%

    Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

    The latest poll has Mike Cox ahead by 4.0 points, but John James is the odds leader and Cox's current odds are 14%.

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