Prediction Edge
Republican
Aric Nesbitt

Aric Nesbitt

Republican candidate for Governor in Michigan

Live Odds — Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$1.3MAUG 11, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleState Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age46 years old (Jan 25, 1980)

GenderMale

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LocationMichigan

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHillsdale College (B.A., Economics)

Notable personal detailsAric Nesbitt is a Republican politician serving in the Michigan Senate (District 20) and has been the Senate Minority Leader since January 2023. He previously served in the Michigan House of Representatives (2011–2017) and as president pro tempore of the Michigan Senate (2019–2023). Nesbitt is a Hillsdale College graduate and has also studied at Kalamazoo Valley Community College and the Norwegian School of Economics. He and his wife Trisha live in southwest Michigan and have three children.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Aric Nesbitt advocates for major state tax cuts, reduced government spending, and permanent tax relief for families and businesses. He sponsored legislation to lower Michigan’s individual and business income tax rates and has repeatedly criticized tax increases and described surplus revenue as belonging to taxpayers rather than the state.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented and limited-government approaches to healthcare, opposing government-mandated unionization of home health caregivers and advocating for policies to stabilize rural hospitals through targeted funding and reimbursement reforms. Has criticized Medicaid-related spending decisions in Democratic proposals and voted against a bipartisan state budget that proponents said protected Medicaid. Emphasis is on reducing regulation, limiting expansion of government programs, and prioritizing support for rural health infrastructure rather than broader public coverage expansion.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border enforcement and penalties related to cross-border drug trafficking, opposes sanctuary city policies, and backs state and federal measures to increase immigration enforcement including cooperation with ICE and use of the National Guard to secure borders. Has promoted Republican border proposals focused on stricter enforcement and has visited the southern border to observe enforcement operations.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports significant restrictions on abortion, opposes on-demand abortion access, and has called for protections for the unborn while endorsing exceptions only for the life of the mother. Has sponsored and publicly supported legislation and resolutions restricting abortion and backing parental-consent and other limits on abortion access.

Climate & Energy

Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach that preserves and expands use of natural gas and nuclear power, opposes 100% clean-energy mandates and other aggressive renewable mandates, and emphasizes affordable, reliable energy and local control over renewable siting. Has proposed or backed legislation and public statements aimed at rolling back renewable mandates and restoring local energy/zoning control. Advocates policies to promote energy independence including expanded natural gas access and oil/gas production on private land.

Public Safety & Guns

Aric Nesbitt consistently supports Second Amendment rights, opposes new gun restrictions, and has backed legislation to allow concealed carry without a license. He emphasizes investments in school and community security and enforcement rather than new regulatory limits on firearms. His voting record shows no votes in favor of several recent firearm-restricting bills.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026

Aric Nesbitt has suspended his Michigan governor campaign and endorsed John James after Donald Trump backed James in the Republican primary. He had previously been in the race and had also drawn attention for calling for a federal review of two Dearborn nonprofits over their use of taxpayer funds. The Michigan GOP governor contest is now moving toward the Aug. 4 primary without Nesbitt as a candidate.

nesbittforgovernor.com+53

Latest Polls

Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Aric Nesbitt currently averages 5.4%, ranking 5th in this race, 6.7 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 5.4%Position: 5thMargin: -6.7 ptsLatest poll: 5.0% (Jul 28 - 29)Polls included: 26

Average recalculated from polls through Jul 28 - 29.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
5.4%
37.7%
26.4%
18.3%
12.1%
Aric Nesbitt
A. Nesbitt
John James
J. James
Tudor Dixon
T. Dixon
Perry Johnson
P. Johnson
Mike Cox
M. Cox
Kevin Rinke
K. Rinke
Tom Leonard
T. Leonard
Date (Start - End)SpreadNesbittJamesDixonJohnsonCoxRinkeLeonard
Polling Average
James+32.3
5.4%37.7%26.4%18.3%12.1%2.4%2.1%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJul 28 - 29
James+45.0
5.0%50.0%22.0%13.0%
Emerson CollegeJul 26 - 27
James+42.5
5.6%48.1%33.3%12.9%
co/efficientJul 14 - 16
James+33.0
3.0%36.0%23.0%21.0%
co/efficientJun 30 - Jul 3
James+31.0
4.0%35.0%23.0%20.0%
Strategic NationalJun 10 - 14
Johnson+20.6
5.9%23.8%26.5%12.4%
Susquehanna Polling & ResearchJun 9 - 14
James+35.0
3.0%38.0%10.0%20.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsJun 11 - 13
James+24.0
4.0%28.0%23.0%27.0%
Tarrance GroupJun 1 - 4
James+26.0
12.0%38.0%26.0%22.0%
TIPP InsightsMay 20 - 23
James+28.0
3.0%31.0%19.0%20.0%
1892 PollingMay 12 - 14
James+17.0
7.0%24.0%23.0%7.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMay 1 - 7
James+25.0
7.0%32.0%23.0%19.0%
Glengariff GroupApr 24 - 24
James+30.1
6.9%37.0%19.8%9.9%2.6%
OnMessageApr 15 - 18
James+36.0
5.0%41.0%18.0%7.0%
Emerson CollegeApr 11 - 13
Johnson+18.6
2.8%20.2%21.4%10.2%3.7%
1892 PollingMar 25 - 26
James+22.0
4.0%26.0%21.0%6.0%1.0%
JMC AnalyticsMar 21 - 23
James+18.0
5.0%23.0%20.0%6.0%3.0%
OnMessageMar 16 - 19
James+33.0
4.0%37.0%19.0%10.0%1.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsNov 18 - 21
James+46.0
2.0%48.0%11.0%5.0%
Rosetta Stone CommunicationsOct 23 - 25
James+38.0
6.0%44.0%4.0%13.0%4.0%3.0%
OnMessageAug 18 - 21
James+52.0
3.0%55.0%0.0%7.0%1.0%1.0%
Glengariff GroupMay 5 - 8
James+37.1
4.8%41.9%20.2%10.9%
National ResearchApr 8 - 10
James+24.0
11.0%35.0%29.0%4.0%3.0%
Mitchell Research & CommunicationsMar 13 - 13
James+26.0
5.0%31.0%30.0%8.0%10.0%1.0%
OnMessageMar 9 - 11
James+52.0
2.0%54.0%6.0%1.0%1.0%
Target InsyghtMar 3 - 6
James+44.0
13.0%57.0%1.0%5.0%
OnMessageJan 17 - 19
James+40.0
6.0%46.0%4.0%3.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

3
Michigan Republican Governor nominee?

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We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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