Prediction Edge
Republican
Brian Dahle

Brian Dahle

Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor in California

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Brian Dahle is trading at 0% to win the California Lieutenant Governor winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age60 years old (Sep 20, 1965)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundPolitician

EducationBig Valley High School (Bieber, California)

Notable personal detailsBrian Dwain Dahle is an American politician and farmer who served in the California State Senate representing the 1st Senate District (2019–2024) after previously serving in the California State Assembly (2012–2019). Before state office, he served on the Lassen County Board of Supervisors for 16 years. He is a multigenerational farmer and small business owner and is married to California State Senator Megan Dahle; they have three children.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Brian Dahle favors reducing taxes and lowering energy costs, including calling for a suspension of the state gas tax and opposing measures he describes as enabling higher local taxation. He supports actions to lower utility bills and criticizes state regulations and tax policies that he says increase costs for Californians.

Healthcare

Brian Dahle has a record of opposing several state bills that expand health insurance coverage and has emphasized protecting Medi‑Cal reimbursements for rural and critical access providers while addressing surprise out‑of‑network medical bills. His campaign materials focus on cost, limiting government overreach, and targeted protections for rural health providers rather than proposing broad public‑coverage expansions. Voting records show he voted against multiple recent bills that would expand coverage or require broader insurer mandates.

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Immigration & Border

Supports streamlining the path to U.S. citizenship while not signalling an enforcement-first or restrictionist immigration agenda. Public statements during his 2022 gubernatorial campaign include support for reforms to simplify legal pathways to citizenship.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Opposes abortion and describes himself as pro‑life; has voted against legislation intended to expand abortion access and received very low grades from reproductive-rights advocacy groups. He has characterized his position as fully pro‑life and expressed opposition to abortion protections beyond limited circumstances.

Climate & Energy

Supports increased in-state oil production and energy independence, prioritizes forest management and wildfire mitigation as environmental actions, and criticizes broad, aggressive climate mandates as impractical without detailed plans. Says he is not a climate denier but favors continuing fossil fuel production during a transition to cleaner options and opposes measures he views as raising energy costs or offshoring emissions. Advocates processing oil permits faster, expanding transmission, and limiting regulatory barriers (e.g., CEQA) that he says impede energy development.

Public Safety & Guns

Brian Dahle has a record of opposing recent California gun-control measures and has received a high rating from the NRA, indicating support for gun rights and opposition to many new firearm restrictions. His legislative votes include multiple Nays on bills that expanded gun regulations, taxes on firearms/ammunition, and restrictions on ghost guns.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Brian Dahle is in the news because California’s 1st Congressional District special election is moving toward an Aug. 4 runoff if no candidate wins a majority. The race is to fill the rest of the late Republican Doug LaMalfa’s term. The election will be held under the current district boundaries, not the new map approved in a 2025 ballot measure.

archive.senate.ca.gov+60

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
5%4%3%2%1%0%
Brian Dahle
B. Dahle
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesAug 17, 2025
2.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesAug 17, 2025
2.0%
Breakthrough CampaignsNov 26, 2024
9.0%
Breakthrough CampaignsNov 26, 2024
9.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesOct 29, 2024
6.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesOct 29, 2024
6.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

4
Who will win the CA-01 special election?

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