Prediction Edge
Republican
Caroline Shinkle

Caroline Shinkle

Republican candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds — NY-12 House winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

4.4%chance to win

$1.2KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleAttorney (corporate law)

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderFemale

LocationNew York

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BackgroundAttorney (corporate law)

EducationMassachusetts Institute of Technology (B.S., Economics)

Notable personal detailsCaroline Shinkle is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in New York’s 12th Congressional District. She has said she earned a B.S. in Economics from MIT and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. She has described professional experience in central banking (including roles at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, European Central Bank, Bank for International Settlements, and Bank of Israel) and corporate law practice in Manhattan.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Caroline Shinkle supports reducing taxes on work, keeping New Yorkers able to keep more of what they earn, and cutting unnecessary regulatory burdens. She also backs balancing the federal budget, reducing housing costs, and expanding entrepreneurship and domestic energy production.

Immigration & Border

She supports enforcing federal immigration laws and using federal law enforcement to remove the worst criminal offenders from the streets and communities. Her public remarks emphasize safety, law enforcement cooperation, and a tougher enforcement approach rather than expanded humanitarian immigration policies.

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Climate & Energy

Shinkle emphasizes increasing domestic energy production and reducing regulatory burdens she says are driving up energy costs. Her energy-related statements frame affordability and supply rather than emissions reductions or climate mandates.

Public Safety & Guns

Caroline Shinkle emphasizes a law-and-order approach to public safety, including supporting police, removing prosecutors she считает ineffective, and working with federal law enforcement to remove violent criminals from the streets. No direct public statement on gun regulation or gun-rights measures was found in the sources reviewed.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026

Caroline Shinkle is in the news as the Republican nominee in New York’s 12th Congressional District, where she is trying to pull off an upset in a heavily Democratic seat. The race is drawing attention because Democrat Micah Lasher won the primary and is favored to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. The campaign is also being shaped by issues like crime, antisemitism, and ties to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

fec.gov+46

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$155.1K
$116.4K
$77.6K
$38.8K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$155.1K
$83.8K
$71.3K
$4.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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