Saved Kalshi settlement results
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Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
NY-12 House winner?
The selected contract has a verified final result.
Final: No
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 2:58 AM UTC
Caroline Shinkle
Republican candidate for U.S. House in New York
Caroline Shinkle
Republican candidate for U.S. House in New York
$18.8K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Saved odds — NY-12 House winner?
Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
1.1%chance to win
$18.8KNOV 7, 2026Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleAttorney (corporate law)
PartyRepublican
Political ideologyConservative Republican
GenderFemale
LocationNew York
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BackgroundAttorney (corporate law)
EducationMassachusetts Institute of Technology (B.S., Economics)
Notable personal detailsCaroline Shinkle is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in New York’s 12th Congressional District. She has said she earned a B.S. in Economics from MIT and a J.D. from Harvard Law School. She has described professional experience in central banking (including roles at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, European Central Bank, Bank for International Settlements, and Bank of Israel) and corporate law practice in Manhattan.
SourcesShowHide
Political Positions
Economy & Taxes
Caroline Shinkle supports reducing taxes on work, keeping New Yorkers able to keep more of what they earn, and cutting unnecessary regulatory burdens. She also backs balancing the federal budget, reducing housing costs, and expanding entrepreneurship and domestic energy production.
Immigration & Border
She supports enforcing federal immigration laws and using federal law enforcement to remove the worst criminal offenders from the streets and communities. Her public remarks emphasize safety, law enforcement cooperation, and a tougher enforcement approach rather than expanded humanitarian immigration policies.
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Climate & Energy
Shinkle emphasizes increasing domestic energy production and reducing regulatory burdens she says are driving up energy costs. Her energy-related statements frame affordability and supply rather than emissions reductions or climate mandates.
Public Safety & Guns
Caroline Shinkle emphasizes a law-and-order approach to public safety, including supporting police, removing prosecutors she считает ineffective, and working with federal law enforcement to remove violent criminals from the streets. No direct public statement on gun regulation or gun-rights measures was found in the sources reviewed.
Latest News
Caroline Shinkle is the Republican nominee in New York’s 12th Congressional District and is trying to position herself for an upset in a heavily Democratic seat. The race is now centered on the general election against Democrat Micah Lasher, who won a crowded primary and is favored to succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler. Coverage says the campaign is focusing on crime, antisemitism, and ties to New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
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Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
2026
LatestCycle 2026
Source: FEC
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