Prediction Edge
RepublicanTrump Endorsed
Catalina Lauf

Catalina Lauf

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

Live Odds — FL-19 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$156.5KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current rolePolitical candidate

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

GenderFemale

LocationFlorida

Show more

BackgroundPolitical candidate

Notable personal detailsCatalina Lauf is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Florida’s 19th Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. She previously ran for Congress in Illinois and has described herself as a former member of the Trump administration, including work at the U.S. Department of Commerce. She has also described co-founding a children’s health company with her sister and living in Bonita Springs, Florida.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax cuts and pro-growth tax policy, including expanding the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and favors a regulatory and tax environment that benefits small businesses and economic growth. Has pledged to reduce entitlement spending and create a more business-friendly climate.

Healthcare

The candidate opposes single‑payer/Medicare‑for‑All and has taken positions opposing expansions of Medicare authority such as provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act; her public materials and campaign history align with Republican market‑oriented healthcare reforms rather than major public expansions.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement while emphasizing legal immigration; frames current Democratic policies as enabling an open-border crisis and calls for cracking down on illegal immigration. Positions emphasize protecting communities through tougher border measures rather than proposing expanded pathways or broad regularization.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Opposes abortion and describes herself as pro‑life; opposes federal funding for abortion-related services and supports alternatives such as pregnancy resource centers. Her past campaign materials characterized her as a vocal opponent of late‑term and partial‑birth abortion and said taxpayer funds should not be used to fund organizations that provide abortion services. Some campaign pages stating these positions were later removed or edited.

Climate & Energy

Supports energy independence and economic policies that prioritize lower costs and reduced regulation; emphasizes protecting local coastlines while criticizing Democratic energy policies and opposed the Inflation Reduction Act. Positions favor market-driven solutions and border/security/economic priorities over aggressive federal climate regulations.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate opposes federal legislation that she views as infringing on the Second Amendment and has described herself as firmly against such measures. Her campaign and past statements have emphasized support for gun rights and personal firearm ownership.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 19, 2026

Catalina Lauf is in the news because Donald Trump has endorsed her in Florida’s 19th Congressional District Republican primary, giving her a major boost in a crowded race. Recent coverage says she is leading the field, and the primary is likely to decide the seat because the district strongly favors Republicans. She has also been involved in a local political dispute tied to a separate WINK News lawsuit, where she accused an opponent of being linked to the firing of a meteorologist.

fec.gov+55

Latest Polls

FL-19 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Catalina Lauf currently averages 14.6%, ranking second in this race, 1.4 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 14.6%Position: secondMargin: -1.4 ptsLatest poll: 18.9% (Aug 4 - 6)Polls included: 3

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 4 - 6.

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
14.6%
16.0%
12.9%
5.7%
5.6%
Catalina Lauf
C. Lauf
Jim Schwartzel
J. Schwartzel
Jim Oberweis
J. Oberweis
Chris Collins
C. Collins
Madison Cawthorn
M. Cawthorn
Ola Hawatmeh
O. Hawatmeh
Date (Start - End)SpreadLaufSchwartzelOberweisCollinsCawthornHawatmeh
Polling Average
Schwartzel+1.4
14.6%16.0%12.9%5.7%5.6%2.0%
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6
Schwartzel+0.2
18.9%19.1%11.7%8.0%6.0%4.0%
CygnalAug 5 - 6
Lauf+4.0
20.0%16.0%15.0%
Victory InsightsJun 20 - 21
Schwartzel+7.9
4.9%12.8%11.9%3.4%5.2%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

9
FL-19 Republican nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.7M
$1.3M
$837.0K
$418.5K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.7M
$102.8K
$1.6M
$82.7K

Source: FEC