Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Dan Crenshaw

Dan Crenshaw

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in Texas

Live Odds — TX-02 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$328.0KMAR 10, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age42 years old (Mar 14, 1984)

GenderMale

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LocationTexas

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationTufts University (B.A.)

Notable personal detailsDaniel Reed "Dan" Crenshaw is a Republican U.S. representative for Texas’s 2nd congressional district, first elected in November 2018 and serving since January 2019. A former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, he medically retired in 2016 after being wounded by an IED in Afghanistan in 2012. He earned a B.A. from Tufts University (2006) and an M.P.A. from Harvard Kennedy School.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax relief and pro-growth tax policies, has cosponsored targeted tax-relief legislation for military families, and has a voting record and interest-group scores consistent with favoring tax cuts and reduced regulation.

Healthcare

Supports market-based, patient-centered health care reforms that increase private plan options and use tools like direct primary care and health savings accounts; opposes Medicare for All and government price controls; has backed measures to expand short-term limited-duration plans and to add work requirements or restrictions in federal programs like Medicaid.

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Immigration & Border

Supports strengthened border security through physical barriers, increased enforcement resources, state reimbursement for border spending, and expanded law enforcement/military measures against cartels while opposing what he frames as lax federal enforcement. Advocates legislative and funding actions to reduce illegal crossings and has introduced and supported bills focused on border security.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate opposes abortion, states that life begins at conception, supports prohibiting federal funding for abortion providers, and has cosponsored legislation to ban abortion once a fetal heartbeat is detectable while allowing only narrow exceptions for the mother’s life. He also celebrates the Dobbs decision returning the issue to the states and has received high grades from pro‑life organizations.

Climate & Energy

Supports tackling emissions through technology and market-friendly measures (carbon capture, nuclear) while opposing job‑killing regulations or policies that would sharply restrict oil and gas production; favors state control/streamlined permitting for carbon storage. Emphasizes protecting Texas energy jobs and energy independence rather than aggressive mandates to phase out fossil fuels or Green New Deal–style measures.

Public Safety & Guns

Dan Crenshaw consistently supports strong Second Amendment protections, opposes new federal gun restrictions such as universal background checks and federal support for red‑flag laws, and has sponsored legislation to limit ATF authority and to block federal funding for red‑flag law implementation. He has received endorsement from the NRA-PVF and frames policy toward protecting gun owners’ rights and due process while favoring measures that constrain federal agency overreach.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Dan Crenshaw is in the news because he lost the Republican primary for Texas's 2nd Congressional District to state Rep. Steve Toth. Reports say Toth won by a wide margin after redistricting changes and backing from Sen. Ted Cruz, while Crenshaw was hurt by his perceived distance from Donald Trump and the lack of a Trump endorsement. Crenshaw said his defeat was driven by "smears and conspiracies."

crenshaw.house.gov+50

Latest Polls

TX-02 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Meeting Street Insights
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
47%
19%
Dan Crenshaw
D. Crenshaw
Steve Toth
S. Toth
Martin Etwop
M. Etwop
Nicholas Plumb
N. Plumb
Date (Start - End)SpreadCrenshawTothEtwopPlumb
Meeting Street InsightsOct 21 - 23
Crenshaw+28.0
47.0%19.0%1.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$15.9M
$11.9M
$8.0M
$4.0M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$15.9M
$1.1M
$16.6M
$693.0K

Cycle 2024

$4.1M
$469.3K
$4.8M
$200.3K

Cycle 2026

$2.7M
$43.2K
$3.1M
$206.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements