Prediction Edge
Democrat
Daniel Biss

Daniel Biss

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Illinois

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Daniel Biss is trading at 99% to win the IL-09 Democratic nominee? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer State Senator

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age48 years old (Aug 27, 1977)

GenderMale

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LocationIllinois

BackgroundPolitician

EducationHarvard University — B.A., Mathematics (1998)

Notable personal detailsDaniel Kálmán Biss is an American mathematician and Democratic politician who has served as mayor of Evanston, Illinois since May 10, 2021. He previously represented the 17th District in the Illinois House (2011–2013) and the 9th District in the Illinois Senate (2013–2019). Before elected office, he was an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Chicago.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports replacing Illinois' flat income tax with a graduated (progressive) income tax, advocates additional taxes on high-end financial transactions and taxing wealthier retirement income while pursuing property-tax reform to reduce burdens on middle- and working-class homeowners.

Healthcare

Supports a national single-payer health system such as Medicare for All and advocates for universal coverage. Campaign materials and past statements commit to pursuing single-payer policies and protecting coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.

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Immigration & Border

Supports limits on federal immigration enforcement at the local/state level and policies to protect immigrant communities; has condemned ICE/Border Patrol raids in Evanston and directed local actions to investigate and shield residents. Has previously co‑sponsored state legislation (the TRUST Act) to restrict local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement and to create protected spaces for immigrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports legal access to abortion and has a record of championing and bolstering abortion rights in Illinois; positions and endorsements describe him as a pro-choice, progressive defender of reproductive access.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive federal action to confront the climate crisis, including investing in clean energy, holding polluters accountable, and advancing building- and community-level measures to reduce emissions. Emphasizes transitioning to clean energy while prioritizing jobs, affordability, and public health.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports broad, progressive gun-safety measures including repeal of the Second Amendment, universal background checks, a federal assault-weapons ban and limits on high-capacity magazines, expanded red-flag laws, safe-storage requirements, and ending legal immunity for the gun industry.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Daniel Biss has won the Democratic primary in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District and will move on to the general election against Republican John Elleson. His victory came in a closely watched race marked by heavy outside spending and intraparty debate over AIPAC-related money. Biss also drew support from prominent Democrats, including Tammy Duckworth and Elizabeth Warren, and Jan Schakowsky backed him after withdrawing support from another candidate over AIPAC funding concerns.

fec.gov+58

Latest Polls

IL-09 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Daniel Biss currently averages 23.5%, ranking first in this race, 8.1 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 23.5%Position: firstMargin: +8.1 ptsLatest poll: 24.0% (Mar 9 - 10)Polls included: 10

Average recalculated from polls through Mar 9 - 10.

Polling Average
30%25%20%15%10%5%0%
23.5%
15.4%
13.3%
7.1%
Daniel Biss
D. Biss
Kat Abughazaleh
K. Abughazaleh
Laura Fine
L. Fine
Mike Simmons
M. Simmons
Bushra Amiwala
B. Amiwala
Phil Andrew
P. Andrew
Hoan Huynh
H. Huynh
Sam Polan
S. Polan
Nick Pyati
N. Pyati
Date (Start - End)SpreadBissAbughazalehFineSimmonsAmiwalaAndrewHuynhPolanPyati
Polling Average
Biss+8.1
23.5%15.4%13.3%7.1%4.5%3.5%2.8%0.4%0.0%
Public Policy PollingMar 9 - 10
Biss+4.0
24.0%20.0%14.0%10.0%6.0%7.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 20 - 21
Biss+7.0
24.0%17.0%16.0%6.0%4.0%5.0%2.0%
MoliticoFeb 15 - 20
Biss+17.1
31.0%12.9%13.9%8.2%6.5%3.7%1.6%0.1%
Impact ResearchFeb 5 - 10
Biss+13.0
31.0%18.0%18.0%7.0%4.0%7.0%3.0%
GBAOJan 26 - 29
Biss+0.0
21.0%14.0%21.0%7.0%4.0%4.0%2.0%
GBAONov 9 - 15
Biss+6.0
20.0%14.0%13.0%10.0%5.0%1.0%4.0%
Impact ResearchNov 4 - 9
Biss+14.0
31.0%17.0%10.0%6.0%3.0%3.0%4.0%
Data for ProgressOct 29 - Nov 3
Abughazaleh+0.0
18.0%18.0%10.0%6.0%6.0%1.0%5.0%1.0%
MDW CommunicationsOct 14 - 16
Biss+5.0
18.0%13.0%9.0%
MDW CommunicationsJun 12 - 15
Biss+7.0
17.0%10.0%8.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%3.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

16
IL-09 Democratic nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.9M
$2.2M
$1.5M
$736.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$2.9M
$262.1K
$2.7M
$149.1K

Source: FEC