Prediction Edge
Republican
Daniel Keenan

Overview

Current roleHome builder

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

LocationArizona

BackgroundHome builder

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Notable personal detailsDaniel Keenan is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He is a home builder and founder of DK Builders and has described working in warehouse and construction jobs before starting his business. Keenan has campaigned on an America First platform, emphasizing border security, public safety, and economic issues, and has appeared in local media interviews as a CD5 Republican candidate.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lowering costs for families and businesses through pro-growth, pro-business tax policies and regulatory reductions. Backs targeted tax relief such as exemptions for overtime and tipped wages and expansion of Opportunity Zones, and advocates smaller government and spending restraint. Pledges alignment with House Freedom Caucus priorities favoring limited government and reduced fiscal burden.

Healthcare

The campaign platform highlights reforming the VA and expanding veterans' ability to see private doctors when the VA cannot meet needs but does not state a broad position on Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA, or single-payer proposals. Public materials emphasize veterans' healthcare choice and VA accountability without outlining general health‑care system reforms.

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Immigration & Border

Supports enforcement-first immigration policies including ending birthright citizenship, mandating nationwide E‑Verify, finishing the border wall where needed, closing asylum/parole loopholes, prioritizing deportation of criminal unauthorized immigrants, and giving Border Patrol and ICE expanded tools and manpower.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports protecting life and stopping taxpayer-funded abortions while promoting adoption and resources for mothers and babies, indicating a preference for restrictions on public funding for abortion.

Climate & Energy

Supports expanding domestic energy production including oil, gas, and nuclear to lower utility bills and reduce dependence on foreign countries, and emphasizes advancing reliable, affordable energy rather than aggressive emissions targets. Campaign messaging frames energy policy as part of an 'America First' agenda focused on economic growth and lower cost of living.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports defending the Second Amendment and signals a pro-gun-rights, law-and-order approach while aligning with conservative caucuses. Emphasizes restoring law and order and defending constitutional freedoms as part of his priorities. No detailed policy proposals on specific gun laws (e.g., red flag laws, universal background checks, or constitutional carry) were found on campaign pages reviewed.

Latest Insights

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

3h

Keenan’s contract fell 22 points from 69% to 47% in the last day, while fresh Axios coverage still frames the race around Lamb’s misconduct allegations, making the repricing trader-relevant.

47%22%

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 4, 2026

Daniel Keenan is in the news because he is still actively challenging Mark Lamb in the contested Republican nomination race for Arizona's 5th Congressional District. Recent reporting says Keenan has continued attacking Lamb's record as Lamb faces scrutiny and calls to drop out over allegations reported by the Arizona Republic. The race remains unsettled, with Keenan benefiting from the ongoing controversy around his main opponent.

fec.gov+45

Polls

AZ-05 Republican nominee?
Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
60.4%
Daniel Keenan
D. Keenan
Mark Lamb
M. Lamb
Travis Grantham
T. Grantham
Date (Start - End)SpreadKeenanLambGrantham
Polling Average
Lamb+58.2
2.2%60.4%2.5%
Victory InsightsDec 2 - 5
Lamb+62.0
1.5%63.5%1.4%
Victory InsightsDec 2 - 5
Lamb+62.9
6.3%69.2%
NextGen PollingOct 10 - 12
Lamb+54.0
0.0%54.0%3.0%
NextGen PollingJun 4 - 4
Lamb+54.0
1.0%55.0%3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Endorsers of Daniel Keenan for AZ-05 Republican nominee?

Arizona Republican Party

Public figure

Arizona Republican Party endorsed Daniel Keenan for Congress in Arizona's 5th Congressional District.

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Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.6M
$1.2M
$789.2K
$394.6K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.6M
$1.2M
$343.6K
$22.9K

Source: FEC