Prediction Edge
Republican
Steve Hilton

Overview

Current rolePolitical strategist

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age56 years old (Aug 25, 1969)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundPolitical strategist

EducationChrist's Hospital School (bursary student)

Notable personal detailsSteve Hilton is a Republican candidate for Governor of California in the 2026 election cycle. He is a political strategist and media personality who served as director of strategy for U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron (2010–2012) and later worked as a television and podcast host in the United States. He studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at New College, Oxford, and has lived in California since moving from the U.K. in 2012; he became a U.S. citizen in 2021.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate proposes large tax cuts including eliminating state income tax for households earning under $100,000 and replacing the current brackets with a 7.5% flat tax on earnings above $100,000, while also calling for major reductions in state spending and significant deregulation to shrink California’s administrative state.

Healthcare

The candidate supports cutting state healthcare spending for noncitizens (ending full Medi‑Cal coverage for undocumented immigrants) and redirecting savings to expand affordability for citizens and legal residents, advocates reforms to Medicaid/mental‑health funding, and emphasizes reducing overall government healthcare spending and wait times. He frames healthcare changes as part of broader spending reductions and affordability initiatives rather than expanding public coverage programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger immigration enforcement and greater cooperation with federal immigration authorities, criticizes California sanctuary policies, and frames enforcement as necessary to uphold the rule of law and public safety. Emphasizes targeting noncitizens with criminal records and faults state leaders for not enforcing existing laws.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate positions toward restricting abortion access and promoting pro-life policies; he has said he would ‘move us towards life’ as governor and indicated actions to roll back California’s abortion-supportive policies, including allowing extradition of an out-of-state doctor accused in an abortion-related case.

Climate & Energy

The candidate opposes California’s current renewable mandates and climate regulations, proposes repealing the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, cap-and-trade, and other mandates, and prioritizes affordable, reliable energy including natural gas and nuclear while protecting farmland from utility-scale solar. The campaign frames these policies as driving high energy and gasoline costs and calls for dismantling what it describes as Democrat ‘climate extremism’ in favor of market-driven and affordability-focused energy policy.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate emphasizes strong support for law enforcement and public safety while expressing support for the Second Amendment and the right to self‑defense. He has also written in favor of meaningful gun reforms such as expanded background checks and red flag measures while aiming to protect gun ownership rights.

Latest Insights

California Governor primary: 1st place

8d

Steve Hilton's odds are down 15.8 points and are now 3% in the California Governor primary: 1st place.

3%16%

California Governor primary: 1st place

9d

Hilton’s first-place contract is still trading near 10% while AP and LA Times reporting show him narrowly ahead in early counting, keeping him a live repricing name even though Becerra remains the overall favorite.

10%1%

California Governor primary: 1st place

10d

Early returns have Steve Hilton ahead of Xavier Becerra, flipping the market’s prior Becerra-favorite setup and making the top-two order a live trader watchpoint.

8%

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJun 13, 2026

Steve Hilton has advanced to the November general election in California’s governor’s race after finishing second in the state’s top-two primary. He is set to face Xavier Becerra, with late-counted mail ballots still shaping the final vote totals. The race has also drawn attention because of claims about slow counting and fraud, but officials have said the delays are due to California’s ballot-processing rules.

en.wikipedia.org+46

Polls

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
17.0%
13.2%
12.9%
11.2%
11.1%
11.1%
5.1%
Steve Hilton
S. Hilton
Tom Steyer
T. Steyer
Chad Bianco
C. Bianco
Xavier Becerra
X. Becerra
Katie Porter
K. Porter
Eric Swalwell
E. Swalwell
Matt Mahan
M. Mahan
Antonio Villaraigosa
A. Villaraigosa
Date (Start - End)SpreadHiltonSteyerBiancoBecerraPorterSwalwellMahanVillaraigosa
Polling Average
Hilton+3.7
17.0%13.2%12.9%11.2%11.1%11.1%5.1%3.8%
SurveyUSAMay 28 - 31
Steyer+0.0
20.0%20.0%11.0%17.0%7.0%6.0%4.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 27 - 28
Becerra+5.9
22.5%22.6%11.8%28.4%5.2%4.9%2.7%
Public Policy PollingMay 27 - 28
Steyer+1.0
20.0%21.0%14.0%18.0%7.0%7.0%2.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesMay 26 - 28
Steyer+0.0
25.0%25.0%10.0%19.0%7.0%6.0%
Kreate StrategiesMay 27 - 27
Becerra+1.0
26.0%20.0%9.0%27.0%5.0%4.0%1.0%
David Binder ResearchMay 26 - 27
Hilton+1.0
27.0%22.0%9.0%26.0%8.0%4.0%
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaMay 23 - 26
Becerra+6.0
23.0%18.0%11.0%29.0%8.0%4.0%3.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMay 19 - 24
Becerra+4.0
21.0%19.0%11.0%25.0%7.0%4.0%1.0%
Echelon InsightsMay 18 - 21
Hilton+7.0
25.0%18.0%12.0%15.0%7.0%7.0%1.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 18 - 21
Hilton+3.0
22.0%19.0%12.0%19.0%8.0%8.0%2.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaMay 14 - 18
Becerra+3.0
20.0%15.0%13.0%23.0%12.0%7.0%5.0%
EvitarusMay 14 - 16
Hilton+1.0
22.0%15.0%10.0%21.0%7.0%0.0%4.0%1.0%
EvitarusMay 14 - 16
Hilton+0.0
22.0%15.0%11.0%22.0%6.0%4.0%1.0%
David Binder ResearchMay 5 - 11
Hilton+1.0
23.0%15.0%13.0%22.0%12.0%7.0%2.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 9 - 10
Becerra+2.6
17.7%18.9%12.0%20.3%13.1%9.3%5.1%
Kreate StrategiesMay 5 - 9
Hilton+2.0
22.0%14.0%13.0%20.0%9.0%9.0%1.0%
Mellman GroupMay 3 - 6
Becerra+0.0
20.0%12.0%14.0%20.0%9.0%10.0%
Impact ResearchApr 28 - May 3
Becerra+0.0
23.0%14.0%11.0%23.0%9.0%10.0%1.0%
EvitarusApr 30 - May 2
Hilton+0.0
18.0%12.0%14.0%18.0%8.0%1.0%7.0%2.0%
SurveyUSAApr 28 - May 1
Hilton+2.0
20.0%18.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%7.0%5.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 23 - 27
Becerra+1.0
23.0%15.0%13.0%24.0%10.0%0.0%6.0%2.0%
YouGovApr 23 - 27
Hilton+1.0
16.0%15.0%10.0%13.0%9.0%4.0%4.0%
EMC ResearchApr 21 - 26
Becerra+1.0
20.0%17.0%15.0%21.0%8.0%8.0%3.0%
Independent Voter ProjectApr 14 - 20
Becerra+3.3
19.7%13.9%16.7%23.0%11.4%4.3%1.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 14 - 18
Hilton+5.0
20.0%15.0%14.0%15.0%13.0%0.0%6.0%3.0%
Kreate StrategiesApr 12 - 18
Hilton+2.0
18.0%16.0%14.0%10.0%8.0%3.0%4.0%1.0%
Kreate StrategiesApr 12 - 18
Hilton+2.0
18.0%16.0%14.0%10.0%10.0%4.0%1.0%
EvitarusApr 15 - 17
Hilton+2.0
16.0%13.0%14.0%13.0%10.0%1.0%5.0%2.0%
Emerson CollegeApr 14 - 15
Hilton+2.2
16.6%14.1%14.4%10.4%10.3%5.4%2.5%
SurveyUSAApr 8 - 10
Steyer+3.0
18.0%21.0%8.0%4.0%8.0%9.0%4.0%5.0%
David Binder ResearchApr 1 - 6
Hilton+4.0
22.0%12.0%13.0%4.0%11.0%18.0%5.0%2.0%
Gudelunas StrategiesApr 1 - 6
Hilton+4.0
22.0%12.0%13.0%4.0%11.0%18.0%5.0%2.0%
EvitarusMar 31 - Apr 5
Bianco+0.0
14.0%11.0%14.0%4.0%7.0%12.0%4.0%4.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaMar 26 - Apr 3
Swalwell+1.0
17.0%14.0%14.0%5.0%10.0%18.0%5.0%5.0%
Kreate StrategiesMar 23 - 29
Hilton+6.0
19.0%13.0%10.0%2.0%8.0%13.0%4.0%2.0%
Echelon InsightsMar 12 - 17
Hilton+5.0
20.0%13.0%14.0%3.0%10.0%15.0%4.0%3.0%
EvitarusMar 12 - 17
Hilton+2.0
16.0%10.0%14.0%3.0%10.0%10.0%3.0%3.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesMar 9 - 15
Hilton+1.0
17.0%10.0%16.0%5.0%13.0%13.0%4.0%4.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Swalwell+4.0
13.3%10.9%11.4%3.0%8.4%17.3%3.2%3.2%
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/TrueDotFeb 25 - Mar 3
Hilton+6.0
19.0%13.0%11.0%5.0%11.0%11.0%3.0%4.0%
Global Strategy GroupFeb 27 - Mar 2
Hilton+4.0
20.0%16.0%15.0%5.0%13.0%11.0%3.0%2.0%
Independent Voter ProjectFeb 13 - 20
Bianco+8.3
14.9%8.0%23.3%3.4%12.4%17.9%2.1%2.8%
Emerson CollegeFeb 13 - 14
Hilton+3.0
17.1%8.8%13.5%3.5%9.8%14.1%3.4%2.8%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaFeb 3 - 11
Hilton+1.0
14.0%10.0%12.0%5.0%13.0%11.0%3.0%5.0%
Tavern ResearchFeb 2 - 5
Bianco+8.0
12.0%9.0%20.0%6.0%9.0%10.0%2.0%3.0%
EMC ResearchJan 29 - Feb 4
Bianco+4.0
17.0%9.0%21.0%6.0%12.0%18.0%5.0%3.0%
Global Strategy GroupJan 29 - Feb 3
Bianco+0.0
18.0%10.0%18.0%4.0%12.0%14.0%3.0%3.0%
J. Wallin Opinion ResearchJan 29 - Feb 1
Hilton+2.0
14.0%12.0%11.0%6.0%8.0%9.0%4.0%7.0%
RBI Strategies & ResearchJan 25 - 29
Hilton+1.0
16.0%8.0%15.0%13.0%14.0%3.0%
Tulchin ResearchJan 22 - 28
Hilton+0.0
15.0%10.0%15.0%5.0%13.0%14.0%7.0%
Public Policy PollingJan 20 - 21
Bianco+1.0
17.0%8.0%18.0%6.0%14.0%11.0%5.0%2.0%
David Binder ResearchJan 17 - 20
Bianco+3.0
14.0%8.0%17.0%5.0%11.0%11.0%3.0%
FM3 ResearchNov 30 - Dec 7
Hilton+1.0
18.0%6.0%17.0%3.0%13.0%17.0%3.0%
Emerson CollegeDec 1 - 2
Bianco+1.8
11.5%4.3%13.3%3.5%11.0%11.5%5.0%
Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaNov 13 - 19
Porter+7.0
14.0%10.0%14.0%21.0%8.0%
Tavern ResearchOct 27 - 30
Bianco+4.0
12.0%16.0%9.0%15.0%5.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesOct 20 - 27
Bianco+5.0
8.0%1.0%13.0%8.0%11.0%5.0%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesOct 20 - 27
Bianco+5.0
8.0%1.0%13.0%5.0%9.0%3.0%
EMC ResearchOct 22 - 26
Hilton+4.0
20.0%3.0%14.0%9.0%16.0%11.0%5.0%
Bold DecisionOct 16 - 21
Bianco+1.0
13.0%7.0%14.0%8.0%12.0%7.0%
Bold DecisionOct 16 - 21
Hilton+0.0
14.0%14.0%5.0%14.0%6.0%
Bold DecisionOct 16 - 21
Hilton+2.0
16.0%13.0%9.0%14.0%11.0%
Emerson CollegeOct 20 - 21
Hilton+1.0
15.7%10.7%5.0%14.7%5.2%
Emerson CollegeSep 15 - 16
Porter+5.7
9.8%7.5%3.4%15.5%3.9%
Emerson CollegeSep 15 - 16
Porter+5.9
9.9%7.9%4.8%15.8%3.8%
John Zogby StrategiesSep 7 - 9
Porter+10.7
14.1%10.9%9.4%24.8%11.1%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesAug 11 - 17
Porter+11.0
6.0%10.0%9.0%17.0%4.0%
University of California Berkeley Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research/Possibility Lab/TrueDotJul 31 - Aug 12
Porter+11.0
10.0%15.0%9.0%21.0%9.0%
Emerson CollegeAug 4 - 5
Porter+5.8
11.8%7.1%2.7%17.6%4.6%
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental StudiesOct 22 - 29
Porter+7.0
3.0%8.0%3.0%10.0%4.0%
University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly PomonaSep 12 - 25
Porter+10.0
4.0%4.7%2.9%14.0%2.6%
Tulchin ResearchAug 8 - 12
Villaraigosa+3.0
10.0%13.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising