Prediction Edge
Republican
Donald P. Wagner

Donald P. Wagner

Republican candidate for Secretary of State in California

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Live Odds — California Secretary of State winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

7%chance to win

$200.00NOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFormer Mayor

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age65 years old (Dec 3, 1960)

GenderMale

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LocationCalifornia

BackgroundAttorney

EducationUniversity of California, Los Angeles (B.A., English)

Notable personal detailsDonald P. (Don) Wagner is an American attorney and Republican politician who serves on the Orange County Board of Supervisors (3rd District). He previously served as a member of the California State Assembly (2010–2016) and as Mayor of Irvine (2016–2019). Wagner earned a B.A. in English from UCLA and a J.D. from the University of California College of the Law, San Francisco (formerly UC Hastings).

SourcesShow
vigarchive.sos.ca.govwagnerforcalifornia.comocta.neten.wikipedia.orgwikidata.orgcommons.wikimedia.orgslocounty.ca.govelections.cdn.sos.ca.govvote-usa.orgsos.ca.govballotpages.comballotpedia.s3.amazonaws.comapps.calbar.ca.govdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgsocallc.orgfcahome.orgwikirank.netreddit.combos.ocgov.comcalmatters.orgivoterguide.comlegiscan.comlifesitenews.comvoiceofoc.orgcbsnews.comcaliforniainsider.comvote-smart.orgocgop.orgdof.ca.govgov.ca.govbos3.oc.govhome.treasury.govcbo.govfairfaxcounty.govcontracosta.ca.govtaxes.ca.govinstagram.comgrowsf.orgtimesofsandiego.comabc10.comsacbee.comocregister.comkpbs.orgfacebook.comlatimes.comindivisibleventura.orgjustfacts.votesmart.orgvotesmart.orgnews.ballotpedia.orgstatic.votesmart.orgballotready.orgnass.orggovinfo.govfec.govcongress.gov

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Donald P. Wagner has repeatedly emphasized limited government, wasteful spending reduction, and keeping county budgets balanced without raising taxes on residents. He has also supported measures to make it harder to pass special tax proposals and has opposed tax and fee increases that he says burden Orange County taxpayers.

Healthcare

Donald P. Wagner opposed Proposition 44, a measure that would require community clinics to spend 90% of revenue on patient care. That position aligns with a more market-oriented, anti-mandate approach to healthcare regulation rather than an expansion of government control.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Donald P. Wagner has taken positions favoring abortion restrictions rather than broad abortion access. He sponsored a California constitutional amendment on abortion-related parental notification and was among the Assembly Republicans opposing a bill that would have required pregnancy centers to provide abortion-related information.

Climate & Energy

Donald P. Wagner has emphasized taxpayer-focused and market-choice energy policies rather than aggressive climate regulation. He has backed county participation in the Orange County Power Authority to give ratepayers a choice over green electricity and has supported a temporary suspension of the state gas tax, while also criticizing the county climate action plan as a state-forced and wasteful exercise even as he voted for most of it.

Public Safety & Guns

Donald P. Wagner has publicly questioned gun-related restrictions, including a California bill limiting gun permits tied to individuals, and argued that taxpayer-owned property should not be used to disseminate more firearms through gun shows. His documented positions point toward protecting gun rights while accepting some law-enforcement-oriented public safety framing.

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