Prediction Edge
Republican
Dusty Johnson

Dusty Johnson

Republican candidate for Governor in South Dakota

Live Odds — South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.1%chance to win

$1.8MJUL 29, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

Age49 years old (Sep 30, 1976)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationB.A., University of South Dakota (1999)

Notable personal detailsDustin Michael “Dusty” Johnson (born September 30, 1976) is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for South Dakota’s at-large congressional district since January 3, 2019. Before Congress, he served on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission (2004–2011) and as chief of staff to Governor Dennis Daugaard (2011–2014). He has also worked as a telecommunications business executive, including as a vice president at Vantage Point Solutions. He lives in Mitchell, South Dakota with his wife and their three sons.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax relief and lower taxes for homeowners and businesses, favors extending current federal tax rates and reducing federal spending through targeted cuts. Proposes state-level property tax credits and temporary tax holidays for first-time homebuyers while advocating for balanced budgets and spending reductions.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented changes to lower costs and is a critic of the Affordable Care Act; has defended Republican budget plans that include reducing federal spending on health programs such as Medicaid.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures (including backing H.R.2 and border funding/operations) while also expressing interest in changes to legal immigration processes for high-skilled/students. Emphasizes not rewarding illegal entry over those who follow legal immigration channels.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate describes himself as pro-life, saying the unborn deserve protection and that life begins at conception; he has supported federal measures restricting abortion access such as a 15-week ban with exceptions and has voted for legislation limiting federal funding for abortion. He has received high ratings from pro-life advocacy groups and opposed measures expanding abortion access.

Climate & Energy

Supports expansion of domestic biofuels and policies that boost American energy production while opposing re-entry or binding commitments to international climate agreements and some broad regulatory approaches. Emphasizes market-based and agricultural-focused solutions (e.g., Renewable Fuel Standard reforms and E15 expansion) rather than aggressive emissions-target legislation. Has opposed specific federal climate actions he viewed as improper mechanisms for rejoining the Paris Agreement.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate supports broad Second Amendment rights and has sponsored legislation to expand lawful firearm access for tribal members. He has said he is not in favor of banning assault weapons and has opposed red flag-style firearm seizure measures and other major new federal gun restrictions. His record and endorsements indicate alignment with pro-gun-rights positions and organizations.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026

Dusty Johnson was eliminated from South Dakota’s Republican governor race after finishing third in the June primary, which failed to produce a nominee because no candidate cleared the 35% threshold. Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden advanced to the state’s first-ever gubernatorial runoff, set for July 28, and the winner will face Democrat Dan Ahlers in November. Earlier coverage showed Johnson leading the field in polls and sparring with Rhoden over claims about campaign pressure and attack ads.

history.house.gov+44

Latest Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Dusty Johnson currently averages 28.6%, ranking first in this race, 1.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 28.6%Position: firstMargin: +1.5 ptsLatest poll: 26.4% (May 26 - 27)Polls included: 10

Average recalculated from polls through May 26 - 27.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
28.6%
27.1%
18.4%
13.1%
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
Jon Hansen
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadJohnsonRhodenDoedenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+1.5
28.6%27.1%18.4%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+6.2
26.4%32.6%23.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+5.2
27.2%32.4%24.0%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+4.0
19.0%23.0%22.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
23.3%19.0%26.3%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.2
34.0%17.0%17.4%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
28.1%16.6%17.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+5.0
33.0%28.0%16.0%10.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Rhoden+9.0
39.0%48.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%15.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%4.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

2
South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$5.2M
$3.9M
$2.6M
$1.3M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$2.6M
$2.3M
$1.3M
$54.9K

Cycle 2024

$4.4M
$5.2M
$1.5M
$60.6K

Cycle 2026

$1.7M
$1.4M
$5.5M
$308.2K

Source: FEC