Prediction Edge
Republican
Dusty Johnson

Dusty Johnson

Overview

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyModerate Republican

Age49 years old (Sep 30, 1976)

GenderMale

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LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationB.A., University of South Dakota (1999)

Notable personal detailsDustin Michael “Dusty” Johnson (born September 30, 1976) is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for South Dakota’s at-large congressional district since January 3, 2019. Before Congress, he served on the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission (2004–2011) and as chief of staff to Governor Dennis Daugaard (2011–2014). He has also worked as a telecommunications business executive, including as a vice president at Vantage Point Solutions. He lives in Mitchell, South Dakota with his wife and their three sons.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports tax relief and lower taxes for homeowners and businesses, favors extending current federal tax rates and reducing federal spending through targeted cuts. Proposes state-level property tax credits and temporary tax holidays for first-time homebuyers while advocating for balanced budgets and spending reductions.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented changes to lower costs and is a critic of the Affordable Care Act; has defended Republican budget plans that include reducing federal spending on health programs such as Medicaid.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures (including backing H.R.2 and border funding/operations) while also expressing interest in changes to legal immigration processes for high-skilled/students. Emphasizes not rewarding illegal entry over those who follow legal immigration channels.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate describes himself as pro-life, saying the unborn deserve protection and that life begins at conception; he has supported federal measures restricting abortion access such as a 15-week ban with exceptions and has voted for legislation limiting federal funding for abortion. He has received high ratings from pro-life advocacy groups and opposed measures expanding abortion access.

Climate & Energy

Supports expansion of domestic biofuels and policies that boost American energy production while opposing re-entry or binding commitments to international climate agreements and some broad regulatory approaches. Emphasizes market-based and agricultural-focused solutions (e.g., Renewable Fuel Standard reforms and E15 expansion) rather than aggressive emissions-target legislation. Has opposed specific federal climate actions he viewed as improper mechanisms for rejoining the Paris Agreement.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate supports broad Second Amendment rights and has sponsored legislation to expand lawful firearm access for tribal members. He has said he is not in favor of banning assault weapons and has opposed red flag-style firearm seizure measures and other major new federal gun restrictions. His record and endorsements indicate alignment with pro-gun-rights positions and organizations.

Latest Insights

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

10d

Dusty Johnson's odds fell below the prior low of 30%, setting a fresh floor for the South Dakota Republican governor nominee race.

7%23%

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

11d

Dusty Johnson's odds are down 21.0 points and now sit at 34% in "South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?" over a 3-day streak.

34%21%

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

14d

Johnson’s nominee price fell from 54% an hour ago to 44% while Doeden stayed near 38%, a sharp short-window reversal in the main GOP governor market ahead of the June 2 primary. That kind of move can matter for traders because it suggests the race is still repricing quickly rather than settling into a stable favorite.

44%10%

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJun 13, 2026

Dusty Johnson has been eliminated from South Dakota’s Republican governor primary after finishing third with 23% of the vote. The race did not produce a nominee because no candidate reached the 35% threshold, so Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden will advance to an eight-week runoff on July 28. Johnson had been polling near the top in the weeks before the vote and had also been in the news for calling for changes to the state clemency process.

history.house.gov+33

Polls

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?
Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
28.6%
27.1%
18.4%
13.1%
Dusty Johnson
D. Johnson
Larry Rhoden
L. Rhoden
Toby Doeden
T. Doeden
J. Hansen
Date (Start - End)SpreadJohnsonRhodenDoedenHansen
Polling Average
Johnson+1.5
28.6%27.1%18.4%13.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+6.2
26.4%32.6%23.6%14.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteMay 26 - 27
Rhoden+5.2
27.2%32.4%24.0%13.2%
Meeting Street InsightsMay 18 - 20
Rhoden+4.0
19.0%23.0%22.0%21.0%
Emerson CollegeMay 18 - 19
Doeden+3.0
23.3%19.0%26.3%16.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Johnson+16.2
34.0%17.0%17.4%17.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Johnson+10.5
28.1%16.6%17.6%13.6%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Johnson+5.0
33.0%28.0%16.0%10.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 2 - 5
Rhoden+9.0
39.0%48.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%15.0%10.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 9 - 11
Johnson+1.0
28.0%27.0%4.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$5.2M
$3.9M
$2.6M
$1.3M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$2.6M
$2.3M
$1.3M
$54.9K

Cycle 2024

$4.4M
$5.2M
$1.5M
$60.6K

Cycle 2026

$1.7M
$2.6M
$4.3M
$255.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements