Prediction Edge
High Impact21d
Ed Case

Ed Case

52%

Ed Case is now leading with 52% support in the HI-01 Democratic nominee race, ahead of the prior leader.

DemocratIncumbent
Ed Case

Overview

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age73 years old (Sep 27, 1952)

GenderMale

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LocationHawaii

BackgroundAttorney

EducationHawai‘i Preparatory Academy

Notable personal detailsEdward Espenett "Ed" Case is a Democratic member of the U.S. House representing Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, serving since 2019, and previously represented Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District from 2002 to 2007. He previously served in the Hawaii House of Representatives (1994–2002), including as Majority Leader, and has worked as an attorney and legal executive, including as Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer of Outrigger Enterprises Group. He was born and raised in Hilo, Hawaii, and attended Hawai‘i Preparatory Academy, Williams College, and UC Law San Francisco (formerly UC Hastings).

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Ed Case supports targeted tax and fiscal measures—such as relief for lower- and middle-income families and small businesses, measures to protect Social Security and Medicare funding, and targeted property/anti‑speculation taxes—while emphasizing fiscal responsibility and budget balancing. His agenda stresses using government to address specific needs rather than broad tax-overhaul proposals, producing a centrist/mixed pattern on taxes and economic policy.

Healthcare

Supports protecting and improving the Affordable Care Act, expanding premium tax credits/subsidies to increase access and affordability, lowering prescription drug prices (including supporting Medicare drug price negotiation in the Inflation Reduction Act), and investing in biomedical research and NIH funding.

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Immigration & Border

Supports expanding and strengthening legal immigration pathways while also emphasizing the need to enforce immigration laws and address illegal immigration; favors comprehensive immigration reform that balances humanitarian access with enforcement.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports access to abortion and reproductive rights and criticized the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade as a tragic setback for women’s rights. Has a pro-choice voting record and high ratings from women’s advocacy groups during prior service. Advocates funding for family planning and international reproductive health programs in appropriations votes.

Climate & Energy

Supports international climate cooperation and federal investments to accelerate Hawaii’s transition to renewable energy, endorses major climate-related legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and advocates for enhanced funding for environmental protection and national parks. Voting and ratings records show a consistently pro-environment voting pattern.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports expanded background checks and other firearm safety measures while remaining within mainstream Democratic policy positions on gun regulation. Has cosponsored federal bills to increase background checks and backed measures aimed at restricting certain unsafe firearm practices and increasing oversight of dealers. Voting and sponsorship record shows preference for regulation focused on public safety rather than elimination of gun ownership rights.

Latest Insights

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

21dHigh Impact

Ed Case is now leading with 52% support in the HI-01 Democratic nominee race, ahead of the prior leader.

52%

Polls

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
42.7%
21%
18.5%
Ed Case
E. Case
Della Au Belatti
D. Belatti
Jarrett Keohokalole
J. Keohokalole
Date (Start - End)SpreadCaseBelattiKeohokalole
Polling Average
Case+21.7
42.7%21.0%18.5%
Data for ProgressOct 6 - 14
Case+24.0
40.0%16.0%12.0%
Data for ProgressOct 6 - 14
Case+19.0
44.0%25.0%
Data for ProgressOct 6 - 14
Case+18.0
44.0%26.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.1M
$793.7K
$529.1K
$264.6K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.1M
$507.5K
$667.4K
$27.8K

Cycle 2024

$700.5K
$316.7K
$891.3K
$37.1K

Cycle 2026

$813.2K
$890.3K
$239.6K
$16.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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