Prediction Edge
Democrat
Eric Shaw

Eric Shaw

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds — CA-48 primary: first place

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$4.6KJUN 6, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Healthcare

The candidate emphasizes improving access to quality healthcare but provides no detailed policy prescriptions on coverage models, Medicare/Medicaid changes, or regulatory approaches in the available campaign materials. Public filings and campaign fundraising pages list healthcare access as a priority without explicit support for specific reforms (e.g., Medicare for All, a public option, or market-based changes).

Latest Polls

CA-48 primary: first place

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Eric Shaw currently averages 2.0%, ranking 5th in this race, 2.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 2.0%Position: 5thMargin: -2.5 ptsLatest poll: 2.0% (May 8 - 14)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through May 8 - 14.

Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
27%
11.5%
10.5%
Eric Shaw
E. Shaw
Jim Desmond
J. Desmond
Kevin O'Neil
K. O'Neil
Ammar Campa-Najjar
A. Campa-Najjar
Mike Schaefer
M. Schaefer
Ferguson Porter
F. Porter
Stephen Clemons
S. Clemons
Luis Reyna
L. Reyna
Date (Start - End)SpreadShawDesmondO'NeilCampa-NajjarSchaeferPorterClemonsReyna
Polling Average
Desmond+25.0
2.0%27.0%11.5%10.5%4.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%
SurveyUSAMay 8 - 14
Desmond+27.0
2.0%29.0%10.0%9.0%3.0%1.0%0.0%
SurveyUSAApr 14 - 19
Desmond+23.0
2.0%25.0%13.0%12.0%6.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • News
  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising