Prediction Edge
Democrat
Esther Kim Varet

Esther Kim Varet

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds — CA-40 primary: first place

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$32.7KJUN 6, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleArt dealer

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyMainstream Democrat

GenderFemale

LocationCalifornia

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BackgroundArt dealer

EducationYale University (BA)

Notable personal detailsEsther Jin Kim Varet is an American art dealer and gallerist who founded and directs the contemporary art gallery Various Small Fires (VSF), established in Los Angeles in 2012 and later expanded to additional locations. She is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 40th Congressional District (2026 cycle). She attended Yale University and completed graduate study at Columbia University.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate pledges to "make taxes fair," lower costs for middle-class families, protect seniors, and rejects corporate PAC contributions; no detailed tax-rate proposals or explicit advocacy for higher taxes on wealthy individuals or major tax-cut plans were found on official or media pages reviewed.

Healthcare

The campaign states she will work to lower costs and ensure quality, affordable healthcare is within reach and pledges to protect access to affordable health care and reproductive health services. The website and endorsements emphasize lowering costs and defending access but do not specify support for Medicare for All, a public option, or detailed healthcare policy proposals.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate has criticized Trump administration immigration policies and has highlighted immigrant family experiences as central to her story and campaign. Her public posts have drawn attention to deportation and ICE actions, signaling support for more humane treatment of immigrants while not laying out a detailed border-enforcement blueprint on her campaign site.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate supports safe access to abortion, contraception, and IVF for women in every state and states that these decisions should be between a woman and her doctor. The campaign opposes government interference in reproductive healthcare and says she will vote to protect women’s right to choose and provide access to healthcare.

Climate & Energy

Supports science-based actions to address pollution and climate change and pledges to protect clean air and water through responsible solutions and competitiveness-preserving policy. Emphasizes environmental protection as part of her campaign priorities but does not endorse Green New Deal–level language on the campaign site.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports responsible gun safety measures and is aligned with gun-violence-prevention groups; emphasizes backing common-sense gun safety while casting herself as respectful of lawful gun ownership. Campaign materials and related coverage characterize her as a supporter of expanded gun-safety policies.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Esther Kim Varet is in the news because she placed third in California’s redrawn 40th Congressional District primary, behind Ken Calvert and Young Kim, and did not advance to the general election. The race was part of a closely watched top-two primary in a district Republicans were favored to hold. Recent coverage also focused on broader debate over California’s top-two system, including a new effort to repeal it.

fec.gov+40

Latest Polls

CA-40 primary: first place

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Esther Kim Varet currently averages 43.5%, ranking third in this race, 0.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 43.5%Position: thirdMargin: -0.5 ptsLatest poll: 43.0% (Jan 14 - 19)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Jan 14 - 19.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
43.5%
44%
44%
Esther Kim Varet
E. Varet
Ken Calvert
K. Calvert
Young Kim
Y. Kim
Date (Start - End)SpreadVaretCalvertKim
Polling Average
Calvert+0.5
43.5%44.0%44.0%
Tulchin ResearchJan 14 - 19
Kim+1.0
43.0%44.0%
Tulchin ResearchJan 14 - 19
Calvert+0.0
44.0%44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.9M
$2.2M
$1.5M
$735.2K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$2.9M
$254.7K
$2.7M
$149.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements