Prediction Edge
Democrat
Ethan Dunbar

Ethan Dunbar

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Arkansas

Live Odds — Arkansas Democratic Senate nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$12.5KMAR 4, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Army (retired Command Sergeant Major)

PartyDemocratic

GenderMale

LocationArkansas

BackgroundU.S. Army (retired Command Sergeant Major)

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EducationUniversity of Central Arkansas — Ph.D., Interdisciplinary Leadership Studies (completed by 2023)

Notable personal detailsEthan Noel Dunbar is a Democratic politician and retired U.S. Army Command Sergeant Major who ran for U.S. Senate in Arkansas in 2026. He has served as mayor of Lewisville, Arkansas, and has been active in county and state Democratic Party leadership. He earned a Ph.D. in Interdisciplinary Leadership from the University of Central Arkansas and previously earned bachelor's and master's degrees from University of Maryland University College.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Healthcare

Supports protecting rural hospitals and expanding access to doctors and mental health services; opposes cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and Affordable Care Act subsidies and emphasizes safeguarding healthcare access for vulnerable Arkansans.

Immigration & Border

The candidate describes the immigration system as broken and supports reform while opposing efforts to defund ICE; he says ICE can serve a vital role if it operates with guardrails and accountability. He favors redirecting federal funding toward law-enforcement initiatives that reduce crime and are held to standards of accountability.

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Climate & Energy

Ethan Dunbar’s public campaign materials emphasize rural economic development including support for lithium and advanced manufacturing and backing for farmers, but do not present detailed climate policy such as emissions targets, clean‑energy transition plans, or positions on federal climate agreements. Available reporting highlights priorities on agricultural supports, infrastructure, and rural jobs rather than explicit climate or emissions policy. The public record thus shows energy- and environment‑adjacent statements but not a clear, specific climate policy platform.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Ethan Dunbar was defeated by Hallie Shoffner in the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary, ending his bid for the seat. Shoffner will go on to face Republican Sen. Tom Cotton in the general election. The coverage around Dunbar is limited and mainly centers on that primary result.

kait8.com+46

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$17.5K
$13.1K
$8.7K
$4.4K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$17.5K
$1.1K
$22.3K
$1.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Polls
  • Endorsements