MO-02 House winner?
3dFred Wellman's odds are now 85%, up from a prior high of 21%.
85%64%
Democrat
Fred Wellman
Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Missouri
$6.6K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Fred Wellman is trading at 21% to win the MO-02 House winner? on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleU.S. Army officer (retired)
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyLiberal Democrat
GenderMale
LocationMissouri
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BackgroundU.S. Army officer (retired)
EducationUnited States Military Academy (West Point), Class of 1987
Notable personal detailsFrederick Paul Wellman is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He is a U.S. Army veteran and West Point graduate who served as an Army aviator, including service in Operation Desert Storm and three tours in Iraq, and retired from the Army in 2010. He later founded ScoutComms and worked in political advocacy, including serving as Executive Director of The Lincoln Project, and hosts the podcast “On Democracy with FPWellman.”
SourcesShowHide
fec.govdocquery.fec.govwellmanformo.comlinkedin.comefoservices.fec.govpostman.comapi.open.fec.govfilpac.comnl.linkedin.comispolitical.comen.wikipedia.orgjeffcomo.govreddit.comkcur.orgkbia.orgstcdemocrats.comusresistnews.orgstlpr.orgspectrumlocalnews.comwrvo.orgs1.sos.mo.govstldems.orgfr.wikipedia.orgvotevets.orglabortribune.comcommondefense.usfacebook.comstlmag.comballotpedia.orgoutinstl.comksdk.comstltoday.commyleaderpaper.comlocalcandidates.orgjstreetpac.orginstagram.comballotready.orggovinfo.govfinance.senate.govwikidata.orgjudiciary.senate.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports policies that lower costs for working families, protect Social Security and Medicare, expand access to healthcare (including a public option and Medicare buy-in), and has criticized tax cuts for wealthy individuals while advocating for economic fairness that rewards work over connections.
Healthcare
Supports expanding access to affordable, quality healthcare through a public option and allowing people to buy into Medicare before age 65; emphasizes lowering premiums, deductibles, and prescription drug costs.
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Immigration & Border
Supports a fair, commonsense immigration system that keeps borders secure while recognizing immigrants’ contributions and fixing a broken system that prevents hardworking people from contributing to communities and the economy. Emphasizes both border security and reform toward a more humane, opportunity-focused approach.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
The candidate says medical decisions should be made by patients, families, and doctors rather than politicians and has criticized the effects of Missouri abortion bans and silence from the incumbent. His campaign frames abortion bans as delaying emergency care and creating legal uncertainty for providers.
Public Safety & Guns
The candidate has been publicly endorsed as a 2026 "Gun Sense Candidate" by Moms Demand Action and lists that endorsement on his campaign site, indicating support for gun safety measures such as expanded background checks and other common-sense regulations while remaining within mainstream Democratic positions on public safety. His campaign site lists endorsements from gun-safety and veterans advocacy groups but does not present a detailed guns policy on the issues page.
Latest Candidate Updates
Recent changes in prediction-market odds, polling and campaign status.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026
Fred Wellman is in the news because Missouri’s 2026 House primary is moving ahead under a disputed new congressional map. The legal fight over the map is still unresolved, and that could affect whether the districts used to choose candidates in August are the same ones used in the November election. The situation leaves his race tied to an uncertain district setup.
fec.gov+40
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
FM3 Research
50%40%30%20%10%0%
41%
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.2M
$866.9K
$577.9K
$289.0K
$0
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2026
$1.2M
$242.2K
$913.7K
$48.1K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements