Prediction Edge
Democrat
George Conway

George Conway

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds — NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.1%chance to win

$1.0MJUN 24, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleAttorney

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age63 years old (Sep 2, 1963)

GenderMale

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LocationNew York

BackgroundAttorney

EducationHarvard University (A.B., biochemistry, 1984)

Notable personal detailsGeorge Thomas Conway III is an American attorney and political activist. He is a Harvard College graduate and earned his J.D. from Yale Law School, later becoming a longtime partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. He became widely known as a prominent critic of Donald Trump and as a co-founder of The Lincoln Project, and he entered electoral politics as a Democratic candidate for Congress in New York.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Healthcare

Supports lowering health-care costs and protecting coverage for Americans, framing rising prices and millions losing coverage as a major problem. Public campaign materials state the goal of making health care more affordable but do not specify detailed policy proposals (for example, Medicare for All or a public option) in the cited campaign launch material.

Immigration & Border

The candidate has publicly supported stronger border security measures, including barriers and technology, while emphasizing limits on asylum fraud and the need to control unlawful crossings. Public remarks indicate acceptance of enforcement-focused responses alongside calls for law-based processes at the border.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports federal protections for abortion access and backs the Women’s Health Protection Act to preserve the right to terminate a pregnancy through viability and protect providers from state-level restrictions.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports reasonable federal gun regulations, explicitly endorsing regulation of AR-15–style semiautomatic rifles and backing commonsense measures such as improved background checks and other limits while recognizing Second Amendment constraints.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

George Conway ran in the crowded Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District, a race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. He launched his bid in mid-June, campaigned on issues like affordability, housing, Social Security, elder care, AI, and climate, and said he would pursue Donald Trump’s third impeachment if elected. Conway lost the primary, finishing with about 7% of the vote. Afterward, Donald Trump mocked him on social media.

en.wikipedia.org+54

Latest Polls

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

George Conway currently averages 12.3%, ranking 4th in this race, 4.4 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 12.3%Position: 4thMargin: -4.4 ptsLatest poll: 9.5% (May 16 - 17)Polls included: 10

Average recalculated from polls through May 16 - 17.

Polling Average
25%20%15%10%5%0%
12.3%
19.0%
17.6%
16.7%
George Conway
G. Conway
Jack Schlossberg
J. Schlossberg
Alex Bores
A. Bores
Micah Lasher
M. Lasher
Date (Start - End)SpreadConwaySchlossbergBoresLasher
Polling Average
Schlossberg+6.8
12.3%19.0%17.6%16.7%
Emerson CollegeMay 16 - 17
Lasher+12.1
9.5%11.3%20.4%21.6%
Tavern ResearchMay 11 - 15
Bores+11.0
9.0%17.0%20.0%16.0%
GQRMay 12 - 14
Bores+9.0
17.0%14.0%26.0%23.0%
Hart Research AssociatesMay 6 - 9
Bores+11.0
10.0%17.0%21.0%20.0%
Honan Strategy groupApr 16 - 22
Lasher+19.0
9.0%20.0%19.0%28.0%
Hart Research AssociatesMar 9 - 13
Schlossberg+12.0
10.0%22.0%19.0%14.0%
GQRFeb 25 - Mar 2
Schlossberg+9.0
16.0%25.0%11.0%11.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 26 - 27
Bores+7.0
13.0%18.0%20.0%19.0%
Schoen Cooperman ResearchFeb 22 - 25
Schlossberg+10.0
13.0%23.0%11.0%6.0%
Schoen Cooperman ResearchFeb 4 - 9
Schlossberg+7.0
16.0%23.0%9.0%8.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$7.1M
$5.3M
$3.5M
$1.8M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$7.1M
$662.4K
$6.4M
$356.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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