Prediction Edge
Republican
James Bialota

James Bialota

Republican candidate for U.S. House in South Dakota

Live Odds — SD-AL Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

5%chance to win

$97.72JUN 3, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleSmall business owner

PartyRepublican

GenderMale

LocationSouth Dakota

BackgroundSmall business owner

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Notable personal detailsJames Martin Bialota Jr. is a Republican candidate for U.S. House in South Dakota’s at-large district in the 2026 election cycle. He is a U.S. Air Force combat veteran who served in Iraq and has described himself as a small business owner who previously ran a guns and ammunition store. He lives in Piedmont, South Dakota, and is married with children.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate advocates eliminating the federal income tax and has a written plan to remove the national debt over a multi-decade period. He is campaigning as a Republican for U.S. House from South Dakota and frames tax policy around ending federal income taxation.

Latest Polls

SD-AL Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

James Bialota currently averages 7.2%, ranking second in this race, 51.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 7.2%Position: secondMargin: -51.5 ptsLatest poll: 12.4% (Apr 7 - 11)Polls included: 3

Average recalculated from polls through Apr 7 - 11.

Polling Average
80%60%40%20%0%
7.2%
58.7%
James Bialota
J. Bialota
Marty Jackley
M. Jackley
Date (Start - End)SpreadBialotaJackley
Polling Average
Jackley+51.5
7.2%58.7%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Jackley+55.4
12.4%67.8%
Emerson CollegeMar 7 - 9
Jackley+44.2
7.1%51.3%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOct 16 - 20
Jackley+55.0
2.0%57.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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