Prediction Edge

Overview

Current roleLieutenant Governor

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age50 years old (Apr 28, 1976)

GenderMale

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LocationFlorida

BackgroundPolitician

EducationAmerican Military University (B.S.)

Notable personal detailsJay Collins (birth name Jarrid Collins) is a Republican politician and U.S. Army veteran who has served as Florida’s 21st lieutenant governor since 2025. He previously served in the Florida Senate representing District 14 (Tampa/Hillsborough County area) after being elected in 2022 and resigning upon his lieutenant governor appointment. He served more than two decades in the U.S. Army, including in U.S. Army Special Forces.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Jay Collins supports tax relief and pro-business tax changes, emphasizing property tax relief and measures intended to lower taxes for businesses. He has defended proposals to eliminate or reduce property taxes and highlighted the importance of improving Florida’s business climate and economy.

Healthcare

Jay Collins has highlighted parental rights, vaccine transparency/choice, and related public-health messaging in his public role as Florida lieutenant governor and on the campaign trail, but I did not find clear policy statements on major healthcare-system proposals (e.g., Medicaid expansion, ACA, Medicare for All, or specific market-based reforms).

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Immigration & Border

Jay Collins supports aggressive immigration enforcement and coordinated state-federal operations to identify, detain, and deport undocumented immigrants. He has traveled to assist in extradition of an undocumented truck driver and has promoted and participated in large-scale enforcement operations that led to hundreds of deportations. Collins has pledged to continue building on Governor DeSantis’s enforcement-focused immigration agenda in office and in campaign activity.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Jay Collins describes himself as pro-life, has opposed Florida Amendment 4 which would have enshrined broad abortion rights, and has supported Florida’s heartbeat/6‑week restrictions while backing pro-life policies. His public statements emphasize restricting abortion access and protecting unborn children.

Climate & Energy

Jay Collins sponsored legislation that removes references to greenhouse gas reduction from state energy law, bans certain offshore wind development, advances protections for natural gas appliances, and prioritizes grid reliability and expanded use of nuclear and hydrogen technologies. His legislative actions emphasize protecting fossil-fuel infrastructure and limiting wind development while studying advanced nuclear and hydrogen options.

Public Safety & Guns

Jay Collins has sponsored and publicly promoted legislation that removes concealed-carry permitting requirements (permitless or “constitutional” carry) and has backed efforts to lower the minimum firearm purchase age to 18. He frames these actions as restoring Second Amendment rights and has supported rollbacks of post-Parkland gun restrictions while emphasizing support for law enforcement and public safety measures paired with those changes.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Jay Collins is in the news because he is running in Florida’s 2026 Republican governor primary and the field has now been set for the August 18 vote. Recent reports show him trailing Byron Donalds in early polling, while Collins has tried to sharpen his campaign by attacking Donalds on AI policy. He has also been drawn into growing tensions inside Florida GOP politics, including disputes with Gov. Ron DeSantis and his allies. Collins recently said he is staying in the race despite speculation that he might exit.

flgov.com+57

Polls

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
7.1%
41.2%
18.9%
Jay Collins
J. Collins
Byron Donalds
B. Donalds
Casey DeSantis
C. DeSantis
Paul Renner
P. Renner
Wilton Simpson
W. Simpson
Charles Burkett
C. Burkett
Date (Start - End)SpreadCollinsDonaldsDeSantisRennerSimpsonBurkett
Polling Average
Donalds+34.1
7.1%41.2%18.9%3.2%3.0%0.4%
Change ResearchJul 9 - 11
Donalds+23.0
14.0%37.0%2.0%
The Tyson GroupJul 8 - 11
Donalds+39.0
9.0%48.0%4.0%
David Jay WolfsonJul 2 - 6
Donalds+17.3
20.2%37.5%2.1%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 29 - 30
Donalds+20.1
12.2%32.3%6.7%
The Public Sentiment InstituteJun 8 - 9
Donalds+26.3
11.0%37.3%3.9%
Associated Industries of FloridaJun 3 - 7
Donalds+49.0
5.0%54.0%2.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Donalds+40.0
8.0%48.0%3.0%
Change ResearchMay 13 - 16
Donalds+37.0
8.0%45.0%3.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesApr 26 - 30
Donalds+47.0
7.0%54.0%2.0%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchMar 25 - Apr 13
Donalds+32.0
6.0%38.0%7.0%
Tarrance GroupMar 30 - Apr 2
Donalds+44.0
6.0%50.0%3.0%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Donalds+39.2
4.3%43.5%6.7%2.0%0.5%
Emerson CollegeMar 29 - 31
Donalds+42.3
4.1%46.4%2.7%0.3%
The American PromiseFeb 23 - 26
Donalds+40.0
4.0%44.0%2.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20
Donalds+25.0
3.0%28.0%24.0%0.0%
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research LabFeb 16 - 20
Donalds+27.0
4.0%31.0%1.0%
Targoz Market ResearchFeb 13 - 16
Donalds+18.0
15.0%33.0%9.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyJan 8 - 13
Donalds+30.0
7.0%37.0%4.0%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesJan 4 - 6
Donalds+39.0
6.0%45.0%3.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesDec 7 - 11
Donalds+27.0
13.0%40.0%
The American PromiseDec 8 - 9
Donalds+29.0
9.0%38.0%1.0%
The American PromiseNov 17 - 19
Donalds+42.0
1.0%43.0%2.0%
Victory InsightsNov 11 - 13
Donalds+43.8
1.2%45.0%2.7%
St. Pete PollsOct 13 - 15
Donalds+35.5
3.7%39.2%2.7%
St. Pete PollsOct 13 - 15
Donalds+40.6
11.5%52.1%
Targoz Market ResearchSep 16 - 18
DeSantis+24.0
2.0%23.0%26.0%7.0%2.0%
The Tyson GroupSep 4 - 5
Donalds+38.0
2.0%40.0%2.0%
St. Pete PollsJul 8 - 10
Donalds+41.5
2.1%43.6%2.9%4.1%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Endorsers of Jay Collins for Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Florida Police Benevolent Association

Elected official

The Florida Police Benevolent Association endorsed Jay Collins for governor.

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Levy County Sheriff Bobby McCallum

Elected official

Levy County Sheriff Bobby McCallum endorsed Jay Collins for governor.

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Billy Woods

Elected official

Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods endorsed Jay Collins in the governor’s race.

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Bill Leeper

Elected official

Nassau County Sheriff Bill Leeper endorsed Jay Collins for Florida governor.

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Bobby McCallum

Elected official

Baker County Sheriff Bobby McCallum endorsed Jay Collins for Florida governor.

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René Garcia

Elected official

Miami-Dade County Commissioner René Garcia endorsed Jay Collins for governor.

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Volusia County Deputies Association

Elected official

The Volusia County Deputies Association endorsed Jay Collins for governor.

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Wayne Padgett

Elected official

Sheriff Wayne Padgett endorsed Jay Collins for governor.

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Christopher Blackmon

Elected official

Osceola County Sheriff Christopher Blackmon endorsed Jay Collins for Florida governor.

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New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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