Prediction Edge
Republican
Jim Norton

Jim Norton

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

Live Odds — FL-02 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$213.0KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleSchool superintendent

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

LocationFlorida

BackgroundSchool superintendent

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Notable personal detailsJim Norton is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He has served as superintendent of Gulf County Schools in Florida. He filed his FEC statement of candidacy in February 2026 and has an authorized principal campaign committee, Jim Norton for Congress.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

The candidate advocates lowering taxes, limited government, and reduced federal spending alongside balanced budgets and oversight to eliminate waste. He supports pro-growth economic policies and fiscal conservatism as primary approaches to the economy and budgeting.

Healthcare

The candidate states he will protect Medicare and Social Security benefits for current and near-retirees and opposes cuts to those programs. He also supports ‘‘responsible reforms’’ to ensure long-term solvency—including efficiency and fraud reduction—without specifying support for major expansions (e.g., Medicare for All or a public option) or market-based replacements. Overall, healthcare positions beyond Medicare/Social Security protections are not clearly spelled out on the campaign site.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate supports strong immigration enforcement and opposes rewarding people who entered the country illegally; he runs as a self-described MAGA/America First Republican. Public debate and news coverage indicate he and other CD-2 Republican contenders favor enhanced enforcement resources and stricter border controls.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports pro-life positions and legal protections for unborn life, endorsing that human life begins at conception and deserves legal protection. Campaign materials do not list a separate abortion policy, but local reporting and a candidate questionnaire indicate a pro-life/personhood stance.

Climate & Energy

Supports conservation and locally driven solutions to protect water quality and natural resources while opposing heavy-handed federal overreach; favors balancing conservation with property rights and responsible development.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedAug 5, 2026

Jim Norton is being mentioned in the context of the 2026 House election fight, as Democrats expand their target map to include more Republican-held seats. Recent reporting says Democrats have also been outraising Republican incumbents in many competitive races, which is shaping expectations for the midterms. Trump has also been issuing endorsements across Republican primaries as the election cycle develops.

fec.gov+40

Latest Polls

FL-02 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Jim Norton currently averages 8.3%, ranking second in this race, 9.5 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 8.3%Position: secondMargin: -9.5 ptsLatest poll: 8.0% (Aug 10 - 11)Polls included: 7

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 10 - 11.

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
8.3%
17.8%
5.8%
Jim Norton
J. Norton
Austin Rogers
A. Rogers
Luke Murphy
L. Murphy
Audie Rowell
A. Rowell
Nick Lewis
N. Lewis
Date (Start - End)SpreadNortonRogersMurphyRowellLewis
Polling Average
Rogers+9.5
8.3%17.8%5.8%2.3%1.0%
co/efficientAug 10 - 11
Rogers+17.0
8.0%25.0%13.0%4.0%
Victory InsightsAug 4 - 6
Rogers+11.5
9.9%21.4%7.9%1.0%
CygnalAug 3 - 3
Rogers+17.0
11.0%28.0%7.0%4.0%2.0%
Guidant Polling and StrategyJul 29 - 31
Rogers+13.0
8.0%21.0%5.0%2.0%0.0%
co/efficientJul 14 - 16
Rogers+12.0
7.0%19.0%4.0%2.0%1.0%
co/efficientJun 23 - 24
Rogers+2.0
5.0%7.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%
Guidant Polling and StrategyMar 9 - 11
Norton+6.0
9.0%3.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$411.8K
$308.8K
$205.9K
$102.9K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$411.8K
$11.4K
$400.4K
$21.1K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements