Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Joaquin Castro

Joaquin Castro

Incumbent Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Texas

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Joaquin Castro is trading at 98% to win the TX-20 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age51 years old (Sep 16, 1974)

GenderMale

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LocationTexas

BackgroundAttorney

EducationStanford University (B.A., 1996)

Notable personal detailsJoaquin Castro is an American attorney and Democratic politician serving as the U.S. Representative for Texas's 20th congressional district, first elected in 2012 and taking office on January 3, 2013. He previously served in the Texas House of Representatives from 2003 to 2013. He earned a B.A. from Stanford University and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest, closing tax loopholes, and using tax policy and federal investments to fund expanded social programs and economic supports for working families. Has voted for legislation (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act) that includes corporate minimum tax provisions and sponsored/advocated for increased federal funding for childcare, education, and other social investments.

Healthcare

Supports strengthening and preserving the Affordable Care Act and lowering prescription drug costs through government action (including allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices). Opposes large Medicaid cuts and Republican plans to scale back coverage. Has voted for Democratic bills that extend ACA subsidies and lower out‑of‑pocket drug costs for seniors.

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Immigration & Border

Supports expanded legal pathways and comprehensive immigration reform including an earned/path to citizenship, protections for DACA recipients and TPS, and opposes large-scale border wall construction and restrictive asylum policies. Criticizes policies that expand detention or broadly accelerate deportations and calls for addressing root causes of migration while protecting asylum access.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports codifying and protecting abortion rights at the federal level and opposes restrictive state laws such as Texas’s SB8; has sponsored and voted for legislation (Women’s Health Protection Act) to prohibit unreasonable government restrictions on abortion and called for federal action after Dobbs v. Jackson.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive climate action including federal clean-energy investment, labor-focused clean energy projects, and endorses Green New Deal–style legislation and related climate bills. Has co-sponsored climate legislation and pushed for prioritizing renewable/clean hydrogen projects and policies addressing climate-driven displacement. Endorsed by environmental advocacy groups for a record of supporting emissions reductions and clean energy transition.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong gun safety measures including an assault weapons ban, expanded and universal background checks, red flag/crisis intervention laws, and legislation to curb arms trafficking and strengthen export controls. Has voted for and sponsored federal gun-safety bills and publicly urged additional reforms to prevent mass shootings and illegal weapons flows.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Joaquin Castro is being mentioned mainly in the context of the growing fight over redistricting and Black representation after recent Supreme Court voting-rights rulings. The coverage says Texas is one of the states where new map-drawing efforts could affect House districts and the 2026 elections. More broadly, the issue has become part of the wider midterm battle over control of the House.

history.house.gov+47

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Slingshot Strategies
6%4%2%0%
Joaquin Castro
J. Castro
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Slingshot StrategiesAug 29, 2025
4.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 12, 2025
41.0%
NRSCJul 7, 2025
13.0%
YouGovMay 19, 2025
42.0%
YouGovMay 19, 2025
41.0%
YouGovMay 19, 2025
44.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$689.8K
$517.4K
$344.9K
$172.5K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$682.1K
$162.7K
$635.1K
$26.5K

Cycle 2024

$689.8K
$138.7K
$713.9K
$29.7K

Cycle 2026

$514.8K
$154.4K
$499.1K
$27.7K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements