Prediction Edge
Democrat
John Cappello

John Cappello

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds — NY-17 Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$119.4KJUN 30, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Air Force officer (retired)

PartyDemocratic

LocationNew York

BackgroundU.S. Air Force officer (retired)

EducationUnited States Air Force Academy (appointment/graduate)

Show more

Notable personal detailsJohn Cappello is a Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York’s 17th Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. He is a retired U.S. Air Force officer who served for more than 24 years, including as a B-1 bomber pilot and as an Air Force/defense attaché at U.S. embassies in Serbia and Israel. He has also worked in national security roles after military service, including as a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and serves as president of the Halyard Mission Foundation.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Healthcare

John Cappello has said the United States should be able to solve its healthcare affordability problems and identifies healthcare costs as a major constituent concern, but he has not published detailed policy proposals on his campaign website. Public interviews and local reporting show general support for improving affordability without specifying positions such as supporting a public option, Medicare expansion, or market-based reforms.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

John Cappello is in the news as part of the crowded Democratic primary in New York’s 17th Congressional District, a key swing seat in the fight for House control. Recent coverage says Cait Conley has won the primary, which means Cappello is no longer in the race if that projection holds. The district has drawn heavy attention because Republicans are defending the seat and the general election is expected to be closely watched.

fec.gov+54

Latest Polls

NY-17 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

John Cappello currently averages 1.0%, ranking 6th in this race, 1.6 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 1.0%Position: 6thMargin: -1.6 ptsLatest poll: 1.0% (Jun 15 - 16)Polls included: 5

Average recalculated from polls through Jun 15 - 16.

Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
26.2%
20.8%
10%
8.6%
John Cappello
J. Cappello
Cait Conley
C. Conley
Beth Davidson
B. Davidson
Peter Chatzky
P. Chatzky
Effie Phillips-Staley
E. Phillips-Staley
Mike Sacks
M. Sacks
Date (Start - End)SpreadCappelloConleyDavidsonChatzkyPhillips-StaleySacks
Polling Average
Conley+25.2
1.0%26.2%20.8%10.0%8.6%2.6%
Public Policy PollingJun 15 - 16
Conley+32.0
1.0%33.0%19.0%14.0%5.0%
Tavern ResearchJun 12 - 16
Conley+33.0
1.0%34.0%23.0%13.0%1.0%
Global Strategy GroupMay 7 - 12
Conley+27.0
2.0%29.0%22.0%6.0%4.0%
Impact ResearchFeb 24 - 26
Davidson+22.0
1.0%17.0%23.0%8.0%5.0%1.0%
Lake Research PartnersJan 27 - Feb 1
Conley+18.0
0.0%18.0%17.0%12.0%5.0%2.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$78.8K
$59.1K
$39.4K
$19.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$78.8K
$13.5K
$75.7K
$4.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements