Prediction Edge
Democrat
John Cavanaugh

John Cavanaugh

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Nebraska

Live Odds — NE-02 Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.3%chance to win

$432.2KMAY 19, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleState Senator

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age45 years old (Oct 6, 1980)

GenderMale

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LocationNebraska

BackgroundAttorney

EducationCreighton Preparatory School (high school)

Notable personal detailsJohn Joseph Cavanaugh Jr. is an American attorney and politician serving in the Nebraska Unicameral Legislature representing District 9 (Omaha). He has worked as an attorney, including as a Douglas County assistant public defender, and has served on committees including General Affairs, Government, Military and Veterans Affairs, and Urban Affairs. In 2025–2026 he ran as a Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports targeted tax relief for homeowners and first-time homebuyers while opposing broad corporate tax cuts that primarily benefit out-of-state corporations; has proposed tax-incentive accounts and a homestead exemption and has publicly criticized large corporate tax reductions as costly.

Healthcare

Supports protecting and expanding access to health coverage, restoring Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, lowering prescription drug costs, and defending reproductive and gender-affirming health care access. Advocates policies to ensure quality, affordable physical and mental health care for Nebraskans and to prevent government interference between patients and doctors.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports reproductive freedom and identifies as pro-choice, saying access to contraception is fundamental to health and pledging to restore reproductive freedom.

Climate & Energy

Supports protecting Nebraska’s public power system and encouraging renewable energy and alternatives to fossil fuels; has sponsored legislation to study climate change impacts and has advocated preparing the state’s energy mix for changing weather patterns. Seeks greater local oversight of transmission/pipeline eminent domain and has promoted research-based goals and policy suggestions to address climate risks.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports reasonable, common-sense measures to reduce gun violence, including universal background checks, and has proposed restricting weapons in the Nebraska State Capitol to improve public safety. Has challenged proposals expanding permitless/’constitutional carry’ and has argued for giving law enforcement tools to keep the Capitol safe.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

John Cavanaugh was a leading Democrat in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District primary, but Denise Powell has now won the nomination and will face Republican Brinker Harding in the general election. The race was close while votes were being counted, and Cavanaugh was at the center of debate over whether he was the strongest nominee or whether his House run could affect Nebraska’s legislative balance. He was also the subject of an ad linking him to Donald Trump.

fec.gov+45

Latest Polls

NE-02 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

John Cavanaugh currently averages 39.5%, ranking first in this race, 24.5 points ahead of the nearest opponent.

Polling average: 39.5%Position: firstMargin: +24.5 ptsLatest poll: 43.0% (Jan 8 - 12)Polls included: 2

Average recalculated from polls through Jan 8 - 12.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
39.5%
15%
9.5%
5%
John Cavanaugh
J. Cavanaugh
Crystal Rhoades
C. Rhoades
Denise Powell
D. Powell
Mark Johnston
M. Johnston
Date (Start - End)SpreadCavanaughRhoadesPowellJohnston
Polling Average
Cavanaugh+24.5
39.5%15.0%9.5%5.0%
GBAOJan 8 - 12
Cavanaugh+28.0
43.0%15.0%10.0%
GBAOJul 21 - 23
Cavanaugh+21.0
36.0%15.0%9.0%5.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.4M
$1.0M
$679.8K
$339.9K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.4M
$82.2K
$1.3M
$71.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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