Prediction Edge
High Impact16d
John Cornyn

John Cornyn

3%3%

Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate runoff market has surged to about 97% after AP called him the winner over John Cornyn, a major repricing that gives traders a clear post-result read on the GOP nominee race.

RepublicanIncumbent
John Cornyn

Overview

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age74 years old (Feb 2, 1952)

GenderMale

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LocationTexas

BackgroundAttorney

EducationTrinity University (B.A., Journalism, 1973)

Notable personal detailsJohn Cornyn is a Republican U.S. Senator from Texas, first elected in 2002. He previously served as a Bexar County district judge, a justice on the Texas Supreme Court, and Texas Attorney General. He earned a B.A. in journalism from Trinity University, a J.D. from St. Mary’s University School of Law, and an LL.M. from the University of Virginia School of Law.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

John Cornyn supports reducing taxes for individuals and businesses, backed passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and advocates tax relief to stimulate growth and allow Americans to keep more of their earnings. He emphasizes lowering taxation, promoting pro-growth policies for job creation, and extending or making permanent tax cuts enacted under recent Republican legislation.

Healthcare

Supports market- and state-centered reforms to reduce costs, opposes the Affordable Care Act and has backed efforts to repeal or replace it, and emphasizes returning decision-making to states, doctors, and patients rather than expanding federal programs. Advocates measures such as tax credits/HSA-like approaches and targeted regulatory changes rather than single-payer or major federal expansions.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement measures, including ending catch-and-release and increasing transparency on how migrants are processed. Has backed legislation to reimburse Texas for state border costs, tighten placement rules for unaccompanied minors, and require DHS reporting on migrants released into the interior. Says immigration-law changes should follow securing the border and supports removing people present unlawfully.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports major federal restrictions on abortion including permanent bans on taxpayer funding for abortion, has voted for legislation restricting abortion access (including limits and protections for infants born after failed abortions), and has pushed to limit access to the abortion pill and to rescind policies expanding abortion availability at federal facilities.

Climate & Energy

Supports maximizing domestic fossil fuel production and reducing federal regulatory barriers to energy development, opposes the Green New Deal and has backed efforts to block Biden administration emissions-related rules. Promotes market-driven energy policies, innovation such as carbon-capture for natural gas, and energy independence while criticizing aggressive federal climate regulations. Has cosponsored and supported legislation and resolutions that open federal lands and offshore areas to energy development and roll back or block certain emissions rules.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strengthening and better enforcing the federal background-check system and bipartisan, limited gun-safety measures while opposing broad bans on assault-style weapons or expanding background-check disqualifiers. Has worked on legislation to improve NICS reporting and has said law‑abiding gun owners should not be affected by post‑Uvalde legislative compromises.

Latest Insights

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

16dHigh Impact

Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate runoff market has surged to about 97% after AP called him the winner over John Cornyn, a major repricing that gives traders a clear post-result read on the GOP nominee race.

3%3%

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

22d

Ken Paxton remains heavily favored in the Texas GOP Senate runoff, with his market price near 94% after Trump’s endorsement and early voting already underway. That keeps the race tightly centered on whether Cornyn can still close the gap before the May 26 runoff.

6%2%

Texas Republican Senate nominee?

23d

Ken Paxton’s Texas GOP Senate-nomination market spiked while public reporting said Trump would make an endorsement today, reinforcing the race’s late-stage volatility before the May 26 runoff.

37%9%

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJun 11, 2026

John Cornyn lost the Texas Republican Senate runoff to Ken Paxton, ending his bid for another term and prompting him to say he still believes Paxton is unfit for office. After the defeat, Cornyn said he will support Paxton in the general election but will not campaign for him. He has also signaled he may step back from some Trump-related priorities, including a bill to rename a Texas highway after the former president.

cornyn.senate.gov+34

Polls

Texas Republican Senate nominee?
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
32.5%
37.8%
24.4%
John Cornyn
J. Cornyn
Ken Paxton
K. Paxton
Wesley Hunt
W. Hunt
Date (Start - End)SpreadCornynPaxtonHunt
Polling Average
Paxton+5.3
32.5%37.8%24.4%
YouGovFeb 26 - Mar 2
Paxton+4.0
32.0%36.0%17.0%
Emerson CollegeFeb 26 - 27
Paxton+3.9
35.9%39.8%16.5%
Quantus InsightsFeb 25 - 26
Paxton+6.0
37.0%43.0%16.0%
VictoryPhonesFeb 24 - 25
Paxton+9.3
29.5%38.8%15.4%
Blueprint PollingFeb 23 - 24
Paxton+11.6
29.9%41.5%13.6%
Peak InsightsFeb 19 - 23
Paxton+0.0
36.0%36.0%14.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchFeb 13 - 22
Hunt+15.0
21.0%30.0%36.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchFeb 13 - 22
Hunt+13.0
21.0%31.0%34.0%
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovFeb 2 - 16
Paxton+2.0
34.0%36.0%26.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Paxton+7.0
29.0%36.0%26.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Hunt+10.0
38.0%48.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesFeb 9 - 12
Paxton+12.0
38.0%50.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceFeb 8 - 11
Paxton+9.0
27.0%36.0%15.0%
Peak InsightsFeb 3 - 8
Paxton+2.0
29.0%31.0%25.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceFeb 1 - 3
Paxton+8.0
26.0%34.0%18.0%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Paxton+1.5
25.5%27.0%25.7%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Paxton+1.0
40.0%41.0%
J.L. PartnersJan 31 - Feb 2
Hunt+11.0
33.0%44.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersJan 29 - Feb 1
Cornyn+2.0
31.0%29.0%24.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/YouGovJan 20 - 31
Paxton+7.0
31.0%38.0%17.0%
CygnalJan 26 - 28
Paxton+3.3
22.4%25.7%25.1%
Emerson CollegeJan 10 - 12
Paxton+1.3
26.1%27.4%15.7%
Deep Root AnalyticsJan 5 - 11
Cornyn+3.0
29.0%26.0%19.0%
Harper PollingJan 5 - 7
Paxton+4.3
26.2%30.5%22.5%
Harper PollingJan 5 - 7
Paxton+10.3
33.4%43.7%
Pulse Decision SicenceDec 14 - 17
Cornyn+0.0
38.0%38.0%16.0%
1892 PollingDec 4 - 4
Paxton+1.0
28.0%29.0%19.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Paxton+6.0
27.0%33.0%28.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Paxton+4.0
40.0%44.0%
McLaughlin & AssociatesDec 1 - 4
Hunt+15.0
35.0%50.0%
co/efficientDec 1 - 3
Cornyn+1.0
28.0%27.0%19.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Paxton+5.0
24.0%29.0%24.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Paxton+14.0
31.0%45.0%
J.L. PartnersDec 1 - 3
Hunt+11.0
32.0%43.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 1 - 2
Paxton+10.0
22.0%32.0%22.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 1 - 2
Hunt+17.0
28.0%45.0%
Public Policy PollingDec 1 - 2
Paxton+10.0
34.0%44.0%
Peak InsightsNov 20 - 25
Cornyn+2.0
35.0%33.0%18.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 21 - 22
Paxton+11.0
25.0%36.0%26.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 21 - 22
Hunt+23.0
29.0%52.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 21 - 22
Paxton+17.0
34.0%51.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 13 - 16
Cornyn+1.0
32.0%31.0%21.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersNov 13 - 16
Cornyn+4.0
45.0%41.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 4 - 6
Paxton+7.0
27.0%34.0%26.0%
Stratus IntelligenceNov 4 - 6
Paxton+8.0
38.0%46.0%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Cornyn+0.5
25.5%25.0%23.6%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Cornyn+0.5
25.5%25.0%23.6%
Harper PollingOct 28 - 30
Paxton+3.0
35.5%38.5%
Hunt ResearchOct 6 - 10
Paxton+4.0
24.0%28.0%19.0%
Stratus IntelligenceOct 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
31.0%34.0%24.0%
Stratus IntelligenceOct 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
43.0%46.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Paxton+1.0
33.0%34.0%22.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Cornyn+16.0
50.0%34.0%
University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGovSep 19 - Oct 1
Cornyn+1.0
44.0%43.0%
Deep Root AnalyticsSep 22 - 28
Cornyn+5.0
33.0%28.0%21.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchSep 17 - 24
Paxton+2.0
29.0%31.0%14.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchSep 17 - 24
Cornyn+2.0
39.0%37.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersSep 20 - 22
Cornyn+1.0
32.0%31.0%17.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersSep 20 - 22
Cornyn+0.0
39.0%39.0%
Stratus IntelligenceSep 14 - 16
Paxton+10.0
28.0%38.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceSep 14 - 16
Hunt+9.0
37.0%46.0%
Slingshot StrategiesAug 27 - 29
Cornyn+6.0
32.0%26.0%
co/efficientAug 25 - 27
Paxton+3.0
36.0%39.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 24 - 26
Paxton+10.0
28.0%38.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 24 - 26
Paxton+7.0
41.0%48.0%
Echelon InsightsAug 21 - 24
Paxton+5.0
37.0%42.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
30.0%35.0%22.0%
Emerson CollegeAug 11 - 12
Cornyn+0.8
29.5%28.7%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
39.0%44.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Cornyn+6.0
42.0%36.0%
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterAug 6 - 12
Paxton+5.0
33.0%38.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 4 - 6
Paxton+8.0
29.0%37.0%23.0%
Stratus IntelligenceAug 4 - 6
Paxton+3.0
42.0%45.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJul 16 - 18
Paxton+6.0
32.0%38.0%15.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJul 16 - 18
Paxton+11.0
36.0%47.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 22 - 23
Paxton+13.0
28.0%41.0%17.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceJun 17 - 22
Paxton+17.0
32.0%49.0%13.0%
Pulse Decision SicenceJun 17 - 22
Paxton+19.0
38.0%57.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 8 - 10
Paxton+19.0
28.0%47.0%12.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 8 - 10
Paxton+16.0
33.0%49.0%
Stratus IntelligenceJun 6 - 8
Paxton+16.0
33.0%49.0%
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion ResearchMay 28 - Jun 7
Paxton+10.0
34.0%44.0%
UpONE InsightsMay 27 - 28
Paxton+22.0
32.0%54.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Paxton+7.0
27.0%34.0%15.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Paxton+9.0
34.0%43.0%
YouGovMay 9 - 19
Cornyn+8.0
39.0%31.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 11 - 13
Paxton+8.0
38.0%46.0%16.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 11 - 13
Paxton+13.0
39.0%52.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$7.9M
$5.9M
$4.0M
$2.0M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$2.3M
$1.6M
$1.3M
$54.9K

Cycle 2024

$3.4M
$4.1M
$851.0K
$35.5K

Cycle 2026

$7.9M
$4.1M
$8.0M
$468.3K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements