Prediction Edge
Republican
John Fleming

John Fleming

Overview

Current roleFormer U.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age74 years old (Jul 5, 1951)

GenderMale

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LocationLouisiana

BackgroundPhysician

EducationB.S., University of Mississippi (1973)

Notable personal detailsJohn Calvin Fleming Jr. is an American politician and physician who has served as Louisiana State Treasurer since 2024. He previously represented Louisiana's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2009 to 2017 and also served as Webster Parish coroner from 1996 to 2000. Fleming served in the U.S. Navy from 1976 to 1982 and later held roles in the first Trump administration, including Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development.

SourcesShow

Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports eliminating personal income tax in Louisiana, opposes federal tax credits/subsidies such as 45Q for carbon capture, and emphasizes cutting government spending and limiting taxpayer-funded programs. Advocates reducing taxes and rolling back tax incentives he views as cronyism.

Healthcare

Supports repeal of the Affordable Care Act and legislative alternatives that would replace ACA provisions; has described the ACA as not fixable and opposed expansions of government-run healthcare. Advocates market-oriented reforms and policies reducing regulatory burdens on providers, including promoting health IT interoperability and pay-for-value approaches.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger border security and enforcement, opposes executive amnesty and sanctuary-city policies, and has called for accountability for Department of Homeland Security leadership over perceived failures at the southern border. Has backed legislation to withhold federal funds from sanctuary jurisdictions and criticized policies that would regularize large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate opposes abortion and has supported federal restrictions and conscience protections for health-care providers; he has cosponsored legislation declaring life begins at fertilization and voted to prohibit federal funding for abortion and Planned Parenthood.

Climate & Energy

Opposes carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects and federal tax credits that support them (45Q), arguing they are dangerous, a misuse of taxpayer money, and can create eminent domain issues for landowners. Positions prioritize property rights and reduced federal subsidies for CCS while criticizing what he describes as cronyism in climate-related subsidies.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports strong Second Amendment protections and has a long record of sponsoring and passing pro-gun-rights legislation while opposing additional federal gun restrictions. Holds high ratings from major gun-rights groups and emphasizes defending lawful gun owners' rights.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedMay 25, 2026

John Fleming has advanced to the June 27 runoff in Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary. He finished second behind Julia Letlow in the first round, while incumbent Bill Cassidy was eliminated. Fleming is now trying to close the gap, including by pushing for televised debates and pointing to a poll that suggests a tighter race.

history.house.gov+47

Polls

Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
25.2%
27.2%
27.1%
5.5%
John Fleming
J. Fleming
Julia Letlow
J. Letlow
Bill Cassidy
B. Cassidy
Blake Miguez
B. Miguez
Eric Skrmetta
E. Skrmetta
Kathy Seiden
K. Seiden
Date (Start - End)SpreadFlemingLetlowCassidyMiguezSkrmettaSeiden
Polling Average
Letlow+2.0
25.2%27.2%27.1%5.5%2.6%0.0%
Quantus InsightsMay 6 - 7
Letlow+12.0
29.6%41.6%19.6%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMay 4 - 5
Letlow+11.0
21.0%32.0%26.0%
BDPCApr 28 - 30
Letlow+11.3
21.2%32.5%20.5%
Emerson CollegeApr 24 - 26
Fleming+1.4
28.3%26.9%21.1%
American Pulse Research & PollingMar 20 - 24
Letlow+6.0
24.5%30.5%20.5%
Harris, DeVille & AssociatesMar 13 - 19
Cassidy+24.0
21.0%34.0%45.0%
BDPCMar 16 - 17
Letlow+5.5
23.5%29.0%19.7%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesMar 11 - 12
Letlow+8.0
19.0%27.0%26.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesMar 7 - 10
Cassidy+14.0
21.0%24.0%35.0%
Cor StrategiesFeb 20 - 24
Cassidy+13.0
17.0%15.0%30.0%
Quantus InsightsFeb 23 - 24
Fleming+9.6
34.2%24.6%19.8%
BDPCFeb 21 - 23
Cassidy+6.7
20.8%21.3%27.5%
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+1.0
26.0%25.0%22.0%
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+9.0
40.0%31.0%
JMC AnalyticsFeb 14 - 16
Fleming+20.0
48.0%28.0%
Public Opinion StrategiesJan 20 - 22
Cassidy+16.0
16.0%21.0%32.0%9.0%1.0%0.0%
BDPCJan 20 - 22
Letlow+13.0
14.0%27.0%21.0%5.0%
JMC AnalyticsJan 12 - 14
Fleming+1.0
23.0%22.0%
Cor StrategiesNov 17 - 20
Cassidy+7.0
22.0%29.0%
JMC AnalyticsOct 15 - 17
Fleming+11.0
40.0%29.0%
JMC AnalyticsOct 15 - 17
Fleming+2.0
25.0%23.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersApr 14 - 16
Cassidy+27.0
18.0%45.0%
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+6.7
16.8%19.7%23.5%4.1%
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+3.5
24.6%28.1%3.3%
Trafalgar GroupMar 6 - 10
Cassidy+3.8
24.5%28.3%
JMC AnalyticsFeb 24 - 26
Fleming+2.0
29.0%27.0%6.0%2.0%
JMC AnalyticsFeb 24 - 26
Fleming+13.0
40.0%27.0%
JMC AnalyticsDec 24 - 26
Fleming+13.0
40.0%27.0%
JMC AnalyticsDec 24 - 26
Fleming+2.0
29.0%27.0%
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Cassidy+20.1
15.9%36.0%3.9%
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Cassidy+15.1
11.8%26.9%2.2%
Trafalgar GroupAug 12 - 14
Fleming+18.1
22.0%3.9%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$11.3M
$8.4M
$5.6M
$2.8M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$0.00
$57.77
$15.00
$0.63

Cycle 2024

$36.3K
$18.9K
$17.4K
$726.93

Cycle 2026

$11.3M
$1.4M
$9.9M
$617.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements