Prediction Edge
Republican
Justin McNeal

Justin McNeal

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in South Dakota

Live Odds — South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0.1%chance to win

$23.7KJUN 9, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Navy veteran

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

GenderMale

LocationSouth Dakota

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BackgroundU.S. Navy veteran

Notable personal detailsJustin S. McNeal is a Republican candidate who ran for U.S. Senate in South Dakota in the 2026 election cycle. He is a U.S. Navy veteran and has been described as a businessman based in Rapid City, South Dakota. He has also been identified as a Transport Mission Pilot for the South Dakota Wing of the Civil Air Patrol.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports fiscal restraint, reducing wasteful federal spending, increasing transparency and oversight, and protecting taxpayers from rising debt and inflation. Opposes certain federal tax subsidies (for example, the 45Q carbon capture tax credit) and advocates rolling back taxpayer-funded corporate subsidies and eminent-domain use for private projects. Emphasizes limited government, local control, and pro-growth energy and business policies.

Healthcare

Supports improving VA access and expanding mental-health care in rural areas while opposing federal overreach and favoring reduced federal bureaucracy and local control of health-related decisions. Emphasizes cutting red tape and streamlining programs rather than expanding large federal healthcare programs. No advocacy for Medicare for All or an expanded federal entitlement is stated in available campaign materials.

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Climate & Energy

The candidate is the founder of Dakota BioChar, a company that converts forest residues into biochar and renewable electricity to reduce wildfire risk, improve soil health, and sequester carbon; his campaign emphasizes land stewardship and local control while opposing federal overreach. Public materials describe biochar production and clean power generation at a project level but do not articulate detailed national climate policy positions (e.g., support for Paris Agreement, carbon pricing, or fossil fuel phase-out).

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate expresses strong support for the Second Amendment and says he will protect it from federal overreach, indicating a pro-gun-rights stance that opposes expansive federal restrictions while respecting gun ownership.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Justin McNeal is in the news as a candidate tied to South Dakota’s 2026 election cycle, where the state’s Senate and other Republican primaries are drawing attention ahead of the general election. The biggest recent policy development in the state is South Dakota’s new law requiring proof of U.S. citizenship for new voters, part of a broader push for tighter voting rules. That law has been signed and is now part of a wider national debate over voter access and election security.

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Latest Polls

South Dakota Republican Senate nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
80%60%40%20%0%
18.2%
65.8%
Justin McNeal
J. McNeal
M. Michael Rounds
M. Rounds
Date (Start - End)SpreadMcNealRounds
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyApr 7 - 11
Rounds+47.6
18.2%65.8%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$11.0K
$8.2K
$5.5K
$2.7K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$11.0K
$1.34
$11.0K
$610.66

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements