Prediction Edge
Democrat
Kai Newkirk

Kai Newkirk

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in Arizona

Live Odds — AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$182.7KJUL 22, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleCommunity organizer

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

LocationArizona

BackgroundCommunity organizer

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Notable personal detailsKai Newkirk is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. He is a community organizer and activist and has served as co-chair of the Progressive Council of the Arizona Democratic Party. His campaign emphasizes anti-corruption reforms and a progressive policy platform, and he has been involved in nonviolent direct-action organizing.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports major tax increases on the wealthy and corporations and programs to expand federal spending on social goods. Proposes a wealth tax above $50 million, higher income tax rates for millionaires, higher corporate taxes, taxing capital gains and dividends as ordinary income, and increased IRS enforcement to collect unpaid taxes. Platform pairs these tax proposals with expanded programs such as Medicare for All, universal childcare, a federal jobs guarantee, and a national living wage.

Healthcare

Supports Medicare for All — a national public health insurance program guaranteeing healthcare as a right — along with government negotiation of drug prices and major expansion of federal funding for public hospitals and community health centers.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate supports abolishing ICE, restructuring DHS, and comprehensive reform of immigration laws to center humanitarian protections. He has criticized more moderate Democrats for not opposing restrictive immigration measures and opposes expanded detention mandates for undocumented immigrants.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive clean-energy expansion and climate action through federal policy measures such as rapid expansion of solar, water conservation and recycling investments, subsidies for electric vehicles, and repurposing fossil-fuel subsidies and windfall oil-profit taxes to lower costs and fund clean-energy programs. Has called for the U.S. government to declare a climate emergency and emphasizes climate justice as a core part of his activism and platform.

Latest Polls

AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
30.5%
Kai Newkirk
K. Newkirk
Date (Start - End)SpreadNewkirk
Polling Average
30.5%
Braun ResearchJul 6 - 8
38.0%
FM3 ResearchJun 27 - 29
23.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

19
AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$151.1K
$113.4K
$75.6K
$37.8K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$151.1K
$90.9K
$60.3K
$3.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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