Prediction Edge
Republican
Kevin O'Neil

Kevin O'Neil

Republican candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds — CA-48 primary: first place

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$4.6KJUN 6, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Kevin O'Neil is in the news because he was one of the Republican candidates competing in California's 48th Congressional District primary. Recent reports say the top two finishers were projected to advance, with Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert emerging as the likely finalists. The race has drawn attention because the district was redrawn and could affect control of the U.S. House, but O'Neil was not among the projected advance candidates.

sdvote.com+48

Latest Polls

CA-48 primary: first place

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Kevin O'Neil currently averages 9.8%, ranking third in this race, 2.0 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 9.8%Position: thirdMargin: -2.0 ptsLatest poll: 10.0% (May 8 - 14)Polls included: 4

Average recalculated from polls through May 8 - 14.

Polling Average
30%20%10%0%
9.8%
27%
11.8%
Kevin O'Neil
K. O'Neil
Jim Desmond
J. Desmond
Ammar Campa-Najjar
A. Campa-Najjar
Mike Schaefer
M. Schaefer
Eric Shaw
E. Shaw
Ferguson Porter
F. Porter
Stephen Clemons
S. Clemons
Luis Reyna
L. Reyna
Date (Start - End)SpreadO'NeilDesmondCampa-NajjarSchaeferShawPorterClemonsReyna
Polling Average
Desmond+17.3
9.8%27.0%11.8%4.5%2.0%1.0%0.5%0.0%
SurveyUSAMay 8 - 14
Desmond+19.0
10.0%29.0%9.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%
Tulchin ResearchApr 27 - 30
Desmond+18.0
9.0%27.0%13.0%
Tulchin ResearchApr 27 - 30
Desmond+20.0
7.0%27.0%13.0%
SurveyUSAApr 14 - 19
Desmond+12.0
13.0%25.0%12.0%6.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Positions
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