Prediction Edge
Republican
Lupe Castillo

Lupe Castillo

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Illinois

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Lupe Castillo is trading at 4% to win the IL-04 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Lupe Castillo supports cutting spending and debt, eliminating wasteful government expenditures, and directing taxpayer dollars away from what she describes as corrupt or wasteful programs. She also backs lower taxes, including a 15% corporate tax rate, no taxes on overtime, tips, or Social Security benefits, and extending or increasing the Trump tax cuts.

Healthcare

Supports keeping Medicare and Medicaid, but wants Medicaid limited to temporary unemployment or disability and opposes broad taxpayer-funded healthcare expansion. Also says vaccination requirements should depend on the virus and rejects lifelong Medicaid entitlement.

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Immigration & Border

Lupe Castillo supports closing the border, requiring people to enter legally, and increasing vetting and border security. She also supports reinstating the Stay in Mexico policy and taking a hard line on asylum seekers and undocumented migrants.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Lupe Castillo supports abortion restrictions and says elective abortion should be allowed only in cases of rape, incest, or risk to the pregnant person’s life. She also says the federal government should not be involved and that each state should decide the issue.

Climate & Energy

Lupe Castillo’s documented energy stance emphasizes restoring oil pipeline access and offshore drilling as part of an economic plan. The available material does not show support for aggressive climate regulation or emissions-reduction policy.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports gun ownership rights and argues that law-abiding citizens should not face additional restrictions. Accepts background checks and three-day waiting periods, while opposing broader limits on gun ownership and supporting police enforcement against violent offenders.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 29, 2026

Lupe Castillo is in the news because the Illinois 4th Congressional District race may be getting more competitive. Independent candidates are organizing against Democratic nominee Patty García, and if several independents make the ballot and split the vote, it could help Castillo. The situation is still fluid, with some candidates saying they may drop out later depending on ballot access and campaign strength.

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Endorsements

IL-04 House winner?

Endorsers of Lupe Castillo for IL-04 House winner?

Chicago Flips Red PAC

Political organization

Chicago Flips Red PAC endorsed Lupe Castillo for U.S. House District 4.

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Illinois Right To Life Action

Public endorsement

Illinois Right To Life Action endorsed Lupe Castillo in its March 17, 2026 candidate ratings/endorsement guide.

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New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Polls
  • Fundraising