Prediction Edge
Republican
Mark Lynch

Mark Lynch

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in South Carolina

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Mark Lynch is trading at 0% to win the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleBusiness executive

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

LocationSouth Carolina

BackgroundBusiness executive

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Notable personal detailsMark Lynch is a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in South Carolina in 2026. He is a Greenville-area businessman and serves as president of Jeff Lynch Appliance Center. He has described himself as an ordained deacon at Burnsview Baptist Church in Greer and has emphasized faith-based recovery work and fiscal and immigration hardline positions as campaign themes.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Mark Lynch’s campaign emphasizes economic growth, investing in domestic manufacturing, fighting inflation, and addressing the national debt, but the campaign materials do not provide a clear, specific tax plan or explicit positions on tax rates for individuals or corporations. Public statements describe a pro-business, conservative approach to the economy without detailing specific tax changes. Available sources therefore show general economic priorities but do not specify concrete tax policy proposals.

Healthcare

The candidate has criticized government medical mandates and framed such mandates as unconstitutional, but the campaign website does not present a detailed health-care plan or clear policy proposals on coverage, public options, or market reforms. Public statements emphasize opposition to perceived government overreach in medical policy rather than a comprehensive health-care reform agenda.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate calls for strict border enforcement including building the wall, a temporary 10-year moratorium on immigration, and policies prioritizing American workers and culture over immigration. The campaign frames immigration as a threat to national security, cultural cohesion, and economic opportunity and supports strong restrictions until those issues are reversed.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate states that life begins at conception and identifies as "100% pro-life," calling for a ban on abortion and opposing time-limited exceptions such as a 15-week cutoff. He has said protecting the unborn may require prosecuting those who perform abortions. These statements indicate support for near-total restrictions on abortion access.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate states the right to keep and bear arms is a God-given right and that "Shall Not Be Infringed" is absolute, indicating opposition to firearm regulation. The campaign materials describe the candidate as an avid marksman and emphasize strong support for the Second Amendment without proposed restrictions.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Mark Lynch was the Republican challenger in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate primary, where Lindsey Graham defeated him with 56.8% of the vote. Lynch also drew attention after alleging that voting machines were corrupted and that votes intended for him were switched to other candidates, including Graham, though the video he posted could not be independently verified. Earlier, Paul Dans dropped out of the race and endorsed Lynch, helping narrow the field before the primary.

fec.gov+52

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Mark Lynch currently averages 8.6%, ranking 5th in this race, 4.9 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 8.6%Position: 5thMargin: -4.9 ptsLatest poll: 7.5% (Aug 8 - 10)Polls included: 10

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 8 - 10.

Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
8.6%
38%
21.3%
17.7%
13.5%
8%
7.9%
7.5%
Mark Lynch
M. Lynch
Trey Gowdy
T. Gowdy
D. Nordone
Ralph Norman
R. Norman
Russell Fry
R. Fry
Henry McMaster
H. McMaster
Pamela Evette
P. Evette
Nancy Mace
N. Mace
Date (Start - End)SpreadLynchGowdyNordoneNormanFryMcMasterEvetteMace
Polling Average
Gowdy+29.4
8.6%38.0%21.3%17.7%13.5%8.0%7.9%7.5%
Trafalgar GroupAug 8 - 10
Nordone+18.9
7.5%26.4%19.5%18.4%
Quantus InsightsAug 5 - 6
Nordone+25.1
8.0%33.1%20.4%19.6%
co/efficientJul 28 - 30
Nordone+24.0
6.0%30.0%15.0%16.0%
Trafalgar GroupJul 28 - 30
Nordone+18.9
8.1%27.0%17.4%17.4%
Emerson CollegeJul 28 - 29
Norman+16.5
8.9%23.1%25.4%17.3%
Innovative Communication StrategiesJul 20 - 21
Norman+10.0
8.6%16.3%18.6%11.7%5.6%6.5%
Resonance Media ServicesJul 21 - 21
Nordone+13.6
7.2%20.8%16.9%7.2%9.6%2.8%
Peak InsightsJul 18 - 20
Gowdy+31.0
7.0%38.0%9.0%13.0%9.0%4.0%6.0%
Emerson CollegeJul 14 - 15
Norman+3.9
12.5%5.9%16.4%9.4%7.7%9.9%10.1%
Emerson CollegeJul 14 - 15
Norman+1.8
12.3%14.1%9.0%8.3%10.2%12.3%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$5.9M
$4.4M
$3.0M
$1.5M
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$5.9M
$546.6K
$5.4M
$282.8K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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