Prediction Edge
Republican
Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Texas

Live Odds — TX-19 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$50.3KMAY 27, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleRoofing company owner/executive

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

LocationTexas

BackgroundRoofing company owner/executive

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Notable personal detailsMatthew (Matt) Smith is a Republican who ran for U.S. House in Texas’ 19th Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. He is the owner and president of Fat Matt Roofing, a West Texas roofing company based in Abilene. He filed as a federal candidate with the FEC and reported personal financial disclosures as a congressional candidate for TX-19 in 2025.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lower taxes, fewer regulations, and reduced federal spending to address inflation and affordability for families. Advocates restoring fiscal responsibility and limiting Washington spending while prioritizing investment in rural infrastructure and energy production.

Immigration & Border

Supports strengthening border security and restoring prior enforcement policies, including working with the Trump administration to stop cartel trafficking and reduce illegal immigration. Emphasizes law-and-order approaches to protect Texas communities. No campaign materials found advocating broad regularization or expanded asylum protections.

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Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate states he will "uphold pro-life policies" and frames his priorities around defending faith and family. His campaign materials identify him as pro-life and oppose abortion access.

Climate & Energy

Supports expanding domestic oil and gas production, reducing regulatory burdens on the energy sector, and advancing nuclear energy as part of Texas’ energy strategy. Emphasizes energy reliability and resisting policies perceived as anti-energy that raise costs for consumers and workers.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Matt Smith is in the news because the Texas GOP primary for the 19th Congressional District is headed to a runoff, and he is narrowly competing for the second runoff spot. He trails Abraham Enriquez by just 193 votes, with final certification expected by March 15. The runoff itself is scheduled for May 26 if Smith advances.

fec.gov+59

Latest Polls

TX-19 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Harper Polling
40%30%20%10%0%
9%
28%
8%
Matt Smith
M. Smith
Tom Sell
T. Sell
Abraham Enriquez
A. Enriquez
Jason Corley
J. Corley
Donald May
D. May
Ryan Zink
R. Zink
James Barbee
J. Barbee
Date (Start - End)SpreadSmithSellEnriquezCorleyMayZinkBarbee
Harper PollingFeb 10 - 10
Sell+19.0
9.0%28.0%8.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$376.4K
$282.3K
$188.2K
$94.1K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$376.4K
$30.9K
$345.5K
$23.0K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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