Prediction Edge
Republican
Melissa Bailey

Melissa Bailey

Republican candidate for U.S. House in New Hampshire

Live Odds — NH-01 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

0%chance to win

$78.3KSEP 15, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleAuditing professional

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

GenderFemale

LocationNew Hampshire

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BackgroundAuditing professional

EducationWake Forest University — B.S. Analytical Finance (2002)

Notable personal detailsMelissa Bailey is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. She has served as vice chair of the Bedford Republican Committee. Her background includes work in auditing, accounting, and banking, and she has also been a homeschooling parent.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports lower taxes, limited regulation, and reduced federal spending to rebuild the economy and reduce inflation; emphasizes returning to “smart fiscal leadership” and cutting red tape for small businesses. Advocates energy independence to lower costs for families and strengthen national security.

Immigration & Border

Supports securing the border and enforcing immigration laws, including codifying former President Trump’s border policies, keeping the border closed to illegal crossings, deporting violent criminals, and fully empowering ICE to enforce immigration laws.

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Climate & Energy

Supports pursuing energy independence and increasing domestic energy production to lower costs and strengthen national security; emphasizes limited regulation and lower taxes to support economic growth. Policy language focuses on bringing energy production 'back home' rather than endorsing aggressive emissions targets or Green New Deal–style measures.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Melissa Bailey is being mentioned in broader coverage of 2026 Democratic primary politics, but the provided reports do not describe any specific action, result, or controversy involving her. The most recent items focus on general primary shakeups, candidate messaging, and other races, not on Bailey herself. Based on these summaries, there is not enough clear reporting to say why she is specifically in the news right now.

fec.gov+47

Latest Polls

NH-01 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Melissa Bailey currently averages 2.0%, ranking 4th in this race, 3.8 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 2.0%Position: 4thMargin: -3.8 ptsLatest poll: 1.0% (Aug 17 - 18)Polls included: 6

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 17 - 18.

Polling Average
20%15%10%5%0%
14.3%
12.6%
5.8%
Melissa Bailey
M. Bailey
Anthony DiLorenzo
A. DiLorenzo
Hollie Noveletsky
H. Noveletsky
B. Cole
Date (Start - End)SpreadBaileyDiLorenzoNoveletskyCole
Polling Average
DiLorenzo+12.3
2.0%14.3%12.6%5.8%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterAug 17 - 18
DiLorenzo+29.0
1.0%30.0%17.0%8.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterJun 24 - 25
Noveletsky+14.0
2.0%13.0%16.0%8.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJan 15 - 19
Noveletsky+11.0
4.0%10.0%15.0%4.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterNov 18 - 19
Noveletsky+3.0
2.0%4.0%5.0%5.0%
University of New Hampshire Survey CenterSep 17 - 23
Noveletsky+10.0
0.0%10.0%5.0%
Saint Anselm College Survey CenterAug 26 - 27
Cole+2.0
3.0%5.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$192.7K
$144.5K
$96.3K
$48.2K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$192.7K
$119.8K
$72.9K
$4.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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