Prediction Edge
Democrat
Micah Lasher

Micah Lasher

Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Micah Lasher is trading at 99% to win the NY-12 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current rolePolitician

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age44 years old (Dec 18, 1981)

GenderMale

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LocationNew York

BackgroundPolitician

EducationNew York University (BA)

Notable personal detailsMicah Charles Lasher is a Democratic politician and former policy official who has served in the New York State Assembly (District 69, Manhattan) since 2025. He previously worked in New York City and New York State government, including as Director of Policy for New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and also worked in the private sector at Sidewalk Labs. He is a New York University graduate and ran for Congress in New York’s 12th Congressional District in 2026.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports taxing wealth and large corporations to raise revenue for social programs and housing; proposes a luxury pied-à-terre tax and has introduced legislation to require large multinationals to include global profits when calculating New York corporate tax liability. Advocates using tax revenue to fund affordable and social housing initiatives and to recover revenue lost to corporate profit-shifting.

Healthcare

Supports significant public investment to expand mental health care capacity and services, increase staffing and pay for mental health workers, and integrate mental health care with other services. Has worked on and advocates for state-level policies that strengthen access to reproductive health protections and broaden public health programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stronger state protections for immigrants and limits on ICE enforcement tactics, including pursuing legislation to strengthen courthouse protections and to enable civil remedies against federal agents who violate New Yorkers' rights. Backs measures to increase transparency and accountability for ICE operations.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports strong protections for abortion access in New York, including protecting providers and out-of-state patients, expanding Medicaid coverage for abortion, and increasing access to medication abortion and contraception coverage.

Climate & Energy

Supports aggressive, state- and federal-level climate action including banning gas in new buildings, economywide cap-and-invest strategies, expanding renewable energy deployment, holding polluters accountable, and legislation to wean New York off fossil fuel dependency.

Public Safety & Guns

Micah Lasher has been directly involved in drafting and advocating for New York’s post-Buffalo and Uvalde gun safety legislation and has served on the board of Everytown, a national gun safety organization. His campaign materials describe his role in writing “sweeping gun safety laws” and emphasize strengthening gun-safety protections.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District and is now the nominee for the open seat held by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler. He defeated a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, by a narrow margin of about 4 points. The race drew heavy outside spending and became a proxy fight over AI regulation, and Lasher has backed stronger AI safeguards. After his win, he criticized major AI companies and appeared at his victory event with Gov. Kathy Hochul.

fec.gov+49

Latest Polls

NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Micah Lasher currently averages 16.7%, ranking third in this race, 1.0 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 16.7%Position: thirdMargin: -1.0 ptsLatest poll: 21.6% (May 16 - 17)Polls included: 10

Average recalculated from polls through May 16 - 17.

Polling Average
25%20%15%10%5%0%
16.7%
19.0%
17.6%
12.3%
Micah Lasher
M. Lasher
Jack Schlossberg
J. Schlossberg
Alex Bores
A. Bores
George Conway
G. Conway
Date (Start - End)SpreadLasherSchlossbergBoresConway
Polling Average
Schlossberg+2.4
16.7%19.0%17.6%12.3%
Emerson CollegeMay 16 - 17
Lasher+1.2
21.6%11.3%20.4%9.5%
Tavern ResearchMay 11 - 15
Bores+4.0
16.0%17.0%20.0%9.0%
GQRMay 12 - 14
Bores+3.0
23.0%14.0%26.0%17.0%
Hart Research AssociatesMay 6 - 9
Bores+1.0
20.0%17.0%21.0%10.0%
Honan Strategy groupApr 16 - 22
Lasher+8.0
28.0%20.0%19.0%9.0%
Hart Research AssociatesMar 9 - 13
Schlossberg+8.0
14.0%22.0%19.0%10.0%
GQRFeb 25 - Mar 2
Schlossberg+14.0
11.0%25.0%11.0%16.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 26 - 27
Bores+1.0
19.0%18.0%20.0%13.0%
Schoen Cooperman ResearchFeb 22 - 25
Schlossberg+17.0
6.0%23.0%11.0%13.0%
Schoen Cooperman ResearchFeb 4 - 9
Schlossberg+15.0
8.0%23.0%9.0%16.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

10
NY-12 Democratic nominee?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$3.3M
$2.5M
$1.7M
$829.0K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$3.3M
$1.1M
$2.2M
$124.0K

Source: FEC