Emerson College
25%20%15%10%5%0%
21.6%
Saved Kalshi settlement results
These are market contract results, not election calls or vote totals. News, polls, prices and charts remain as captured.
Observation saved Nov 4, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC. No automatic updates.
NY-12 House winner?
The selected contract has a verified final result.
Final: Yes
Settled Nov 4, 2026, 2:58 AM UTC
Democrat
Micah Lasher
Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York
$18.8K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Saved odds — NY-12 House winner?
Prediction-market probability saved with this edition; no automatic updates.
98.9%chance to win
$18.8KNOV 7, 2026Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current rolePolitician
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyProgressive Democrat
Age44 years old (Dec 18, 1981)
GenderMale
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LocationNew York
BackgroundPolitician
EducationNew York University (BA)
Notable personal detailsMicah Charles Lasher is a Democratic politician and former policy official who has served in the New York State Assembly (District 69, Manhattan) since 2025. He previously worked in New York City and New York State government, including as Director of Policy for New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and also worked in the private sector at Sidewalk Labs. He is a New York University graduate and ran for Congress in New York’s 12th Congressional District in 2026.
SourcesShowHide
fec.goven.wikipedia.orgmicahlasher.comlinkedin.combsky.appcommons.wikimedia.orgny12.aok.sitevote.nyccbsnews.comtavernresearch.comnewyorker.comjta.orgaarp.orgwashingtonexaminer.comtimesofisrael.comwashingtonpost.combluevoterguide.orgupload.wikimedia.orgelections.ny.govd3dkdvqff0zqx.cloudfront.netnysafp.orgnyassembly.govcityandstateny.comnewsbeyonddetroit.netaol.comamericamagazine.orgjcan-nyc.orgwestsiderag.comnationaltoday.comtransparencyusa.orgassembly.state.ny.usweareprogressives.orgactorsequity.orgny1.comthehill.comnbcnews.comx.comnyeditorialboard.substack.comnytimes.comsubscriber.politicopro.compolitico.compbs.orgonlabor.orgourtownny.comweny.comjpost.comfacebook.comdisclosures-clerk.house.govwikidata.orgdocquery.fec.govballotready.orgnadler.house.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports taxing wealth and large corporations to raise revenue for social programs and housing; proposes a luxury pied-à-terre tax and has introduced legislation to require large multinationals to include global profits when calculating New York corporate tax liability. Advocates using tax revenue to fund affordable and social housing initiatives and to recover revenue lost to corporate profit-shifting.
Healthcare
Supports significant public investment to expand mental health care capacity and services, increase staffing and pay for mental health workers, and integrate mental health care with other services. Has worked on and advocates for state-level policies that strengthen access to reproductive health protections and broaden public health programs.
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Immigration & Border
Supports stronger state protections for immigrants and limits on ICE enforcement tactics, including pursuing legislation to strengthen courthouse protections and to enable civil remedies against federal agents who violate New Yorkers' rights. Backs measures to increase transparency and accountability for ICE operations.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Supports strong protections for abortion access in New York, including protecting providers and out-of-state patients, expanding Medicaid coverage for abortion, and increasing access to medication abortion and contraception coverage.
Climate & Energy
Supports aggressive, state- and federal-level climate action including banning gas in new buildings, economywide cap-and-invest strategies, expanding renewable energy deployment, holding polluters accountable, and legislation to wean New York off fossil fuel dependency.
Public Safety & Guns
Micah Lasher has been directly involved in drafting and advocating for New York’s post-Buffalo and Uvalde gun safety legislation and has served on the board of Everytown, a national gun safety organization. His campaign materials describe his role in writing “sweeping gun safety laws” and emphasize strengthening gun-safety protections.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026
Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District and is now the nominee for the open seat held by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler. He defeated a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, by a narrow margin of about 4 points. The race drew heavy outside spending and became a proxy fight over AI regulation, and Lasher has backed stronger AI safeguards. After his win, he criticized major AI companies and appeared at his victory event with Gov. Kathy Hochul.
fec.gov+51
Articles
VVox.com4 months ago
The AI industry just won a race — but lost the war
Positive
TNThe New York Times4 months ago
Mamdani’s Victories May Be a Headache for the Governor Who Has Backed Him
Positive
BIBusiness Insider4 months ago
A Manhattan Primary Winner Has a Defiant Message for the AI Industry
Positive
TBThe Boston Globe4 months ago
Schlossberg’s defeat dampens dream of a renewed Camelot
Positive
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$3.3M
$2.5M
$1.7M
$829.0K
$0
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2026
$3.3M
$1.1M
$2.2M
$124.0K
Source: FEC
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- Endorsements