Prediction Edge
Republican
Michael Marcel

Michael Marcel

Republican candidate for U.S. House in Florida

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Live Odds — FL-14 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

3%chance to win

$42.4KAUG 25, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleFinance professional

PartyRepublican

LocationFlorida

BackgroundFinance professional

Notable personal detailsMichael Marcel is a Republican candidate for U.S. House representing Florida's 14th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC and is affiliated with the committee "Michael Marcel for US Congress." He has described his professional background as decades working on Wall Street before retiring in 2010, and later working in Florida's construction industry from 2015 through 2025.

SourcesShow
fec.govmarcelforcongress.orgvote.utah.govalamedacountyca.govdos.elections.myflorida.comkalshi.comtransparencyusa.orgpredictionedge.comactivatepinellas.orgutgop.orgthecandidate.comin.govsos.ms.govbluevoterguide.orgdocquery.fec.govfpsanet.comen.wikipedia.orgelections.maricopa.govazsos.govdos.fl.govpolitics1.comopencampaign.commarkzetzerforcongress.commikesell.orgerikmaga.comgovbase.comjohnpetersforcongress.comelectrepublicans.orghillsborough.gopcongress.govgoogle.comballotpedia.orgfloridaphoenix.comivoterguide.comwusf.orgfloridapolitics.comlocalcandidates.orgfacebook.comdeveloper.ballotpedia.orgballotready.orghistory.house.govdata.ballotpedia.orgvoterguide.ballotpedia.orgdonate.ballotpedia.orgcdn.ballotpedia.orggovinfo.gov

Latest Polls

FL-14 Republican nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Michael Marcel currently averages 1.1%, ranking 5th in this race, 2.9 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 1.1%Position: 5thMargin: -2.9 ptsLatest poll: 1.0% (Aug 6 - 8)Polls included: 3

Average recalculated from polls through Aug 6 - 8.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
32.8%
25.8%
7.0%
Michael Marcel
M. Marcel
Mike Beltran
M. Beltran
Kevin Steele
K. Steele
Bea Valenti
B. Valenti
Rocky Rochford
R. Rochford
Gavriel Soriano
G. Soriano
Date (Start - End)SpreadMarcelBeltranSteeleValentiRochfordSoriano
Polling Average
Beltran+31.7
1.1%32.8%25.8%7.0%4.0%0.8%
Catalyst ResearchAug 6 - 8
Beltran+28.0
1.0%29.0%26.1%7.8%4.1%0.7%
Catalyst ResearchAug 6 - 8
Beltran+37.4
2.0%39.4%33.2%11.5%6.7%1.8%
St. Pete PollsJul 14 - 15
Beltran+29.7
0.3%30.0%18.1%1.6%1.3%0.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

1
FL-14 Republican nominee?
Republican Party of Florida

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$19.2K
$14.4K
$9.6K
$4.8K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$19.2K
$4.0K
$15.2K
$797.77

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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