Prediction Edge
Republican
Michael Stansfield

Michael Stansfield

Republican candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds — CA-06 primary: first place

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$58.3KJUN 6, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleTechnical support worker

PartyRepublican

LocationCalifornia

BackgroundTechnical support worker

Notable personal detailsMichael Stansfield is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in California’s 6th Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. He has described his work background as technical support and author. He previously ran for Congress in Oregon in 2018 as a Democrat. In 2026, his authorized committee is registered as the “Michael Stansfield Contra-Zionism Committee.”

SourcesShow

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Michael Stansfield is in the news because he is running in California’s newly redrawn 6th Congressional District, where early primary results put him in second place behind Kevin Kiley and ahead of Democrat Richard Pan. That result briefly raised the possibility that no Democrat would advance to the general election, though many ballots were still being counted and the outcome remained uncertain. The race is part of a broader redistricting fight that is reshaping House districts ahead of the 2028 elections.

fec.gov+45

Latest Polls

CA-06 primary: first place

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

EMC Research
40%30%20%10%0%
8%
36%
Michael Stansfield
M. Stansfield
Kevin Kiley
K. Kiley
Date (Start - End)SpreadStansfieldKiley
EMC ResearchMay 3 - 6
Kiley+28.0
8.0%36.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$17.4K
$13.1K
$8.7K
$4.4K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$17.4K
$0.00
$17.4K
$1.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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