Prediction Edge
Republican
Michael Wheeler

Overview

Current roleFinance professional (corporate bond trader)

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

LocationTexas

BackgroundFinance professional (corporate bond trader)

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EducationThe George Washington University — Bachelor’s in Accountancy

Notable personal detailsMichael “Mike” Wheeler is a Republican who ran for U.S. House in Texas’ 21st Congressional District in the 2026 cycle. He has worked in finance, including corporate bond trading and leadership roles at major financial firms, and later returned to the Texas Hill Country where he was active in local Republican Party leadership. He has served as Kendall County Republican Party chair and as a member of the State Republican Executive Committee, and has worked as a senior advisor at the U.S. Small Business Administration.

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Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports fiscal responsibility, cutting wasteful government spending, reducing the national debt, and curbing inflation; emphasizes pro-business policies such as reshoring manufacturing and strengthening the industrial base. Positions indicate preference for smaller government spending and market-oriented economic solutions rather than higher taxes or expanded redistribution programs.

Healthcare

Supports market-based reforms to lower costs and expand access, including expanded Health Savings Accounts, price transparency and breaking up insurance monopolies, with measures to curb pharmaceutical industry practices and emphasize prevention over treatment. Opposes aspects of the Affordable Care Act, saying it raised premiums and poor plan designs. Proposes regulatory and transparency changes rather than a government-run universal system.

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Immigration & Border

Supports finishing the border wall and expanded enforcement measures, including ending catch-and-release and reimbursing Texas for border costs. Advocates strict enforcement of immigration laws and frames illegal entry as grounds for enforcement actions that can include family separation.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports abolishing abortion in Texas and adopting legal protections for unborn children from the moment of fertilization, including enforcement measures to prohibit abortion.

Climate & Energy

Opposes Green New Deal–style policies and calls for ending federal subsidies for wind, solar, and battery storage while supporting tax incentives and streamlined approvals for natural gas and nuclear to ensure reliable energy. Emphasizes protecting local landscapes and property values from renewable projects and prioritizes energy reliability and market-based approaches.

News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJun 11, 2026

Michael Wheeler is in the news because Kalshi said it suspended and fined him and two other political candidates after finding they bet on their own races. The company called the activity political insider trading and said it has added safeguards to stop candidates from trading on their own elections. Earlier coverage also placed him among the candidates to watch in the 2026 House races, but the betting issue is the main recent development.

fec.gov+37

Polls

TX-21 Republican nominee?
Polling Average
50%40%30%20%10%0%
5%
38%
7%
Michael Wheeler
M. Wheeler
Mark Teixeira
M. Teixeira
Jason Cahill
J. Cahill
Trey Trainor
T. Trainor
Date (Start - End)SpreadWheelerTeixeiraCahillTrainor
Polling Average
Teixeira+33.0
5.0%38.0%7.0%3.0%
Ragnar Research PartnersFeb 5 - 7
Teixeira+33.0
5.0%38.0%7.0%3.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026
Total raisedCash on hand
$344.2K
$258.2K
$172.1K
$86.1K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$344.2K
$0.00
$344.2K
$21.5K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements