David Binder Research
40%30%20%10%0%
33%
Democrat
Mike McGuire
Democratic candidate for U.S. House in California
CA-01 primary: first place
$36.6K
JUN 6, 2026Primary Election
Party selects its nominee.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Mike McGuire is trading at 1% to win the CA-01 primary: first place on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleState Senator
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyLiberal Democrat
Age47 years old (Jul 21, 1979)
GenderMale
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LocationCalifornia
BackgroundPolitician
EducationSonoma State University — B.A., Political Science (2002)
Notable personal detailsMike McGuire is an American politician who has served in the California State Senate (District 2) since 2014. He previously served in local government, including on the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors and the Healdsburg City Council, and was elected to the Healdsburg School Board at age 19. He earned a B.A. in Political Science from Sonoma State University in 2002 and has served in Senate leadership roles, including Senate Majority Leader and President pro Tempore.
SourcesShowHide
sd02.senate.ca.govfec.govjustfacts.votesmart.orgmarcomm.sonoma.eduen.wikipedia.orgwikidata.orgjoincalifornia.comthecandidate.comsenate.ca.govdocquery.fec.govbuttevotes.ca.govvotemikemcguire.comsecretary.senate.ca.govelections.cdn.sos.ca.govdisclosures-clerk.house.govballotready.orgreddit.comnationalnursesunited.orgplumassun.orgkymkemp.compolitico.comapnews.comtheclimatecenter.orgsenatormikemcguire.comdemocrats.senate.ca.govtimesofsandiego.comweareprogressives.orgmendovoice.comkrcrtv.comkolotv.comeqca.orglocalcandidates.orgcalmatters.orgchico.newsreview.comtheguardian.comtimes-standard.comsacbee.comkrcb.orgchicoer.compredictionedge.comfacebook.cominstagram.combanking.senate.govcongress.govlegislation.ballotpedia.orgepw.senate.govhuffman.house.govsenate.govhistory.house.govmcguire.house.gov
Political Positions
LiberalConservative
Economy & Taxes
Supports public investments in education, small-business recovery, rural county payments, housing, homelessness, and wildfire safety while emphasizing balanced budgets and strengthening the rainy day fund; backing economic stimulus and targeted spending rather than advocating across-the-board tax cuts.
Healthcare
Supports expanding government-led healthcare: has co-authored California single-payer legislation, defended the Affordable Care Act, and campaigned on protecting and expanding access to care including rural hospitals and reproductive health. Advocates for guaranteed health care and investments to preserve and expand public health services in California.
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Immigration & Border
Supports protecting immigrants and asylum access, opposes family separations and deportation-focused federal actions, and backed state measures to limit local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement while calling for accountability for federal agents.
Abortion & Reproductive Rights
Supports broad access to abortion and actions to protect and expand reproductive healthcare access, including measures to allow out-of-state providers to deliver abortion care in California. Has publicly framed California as a sanctuary for reproductive freedom and opposed restrictive laws in other states.
Climate & Energy
Supports accelerating deployment of renewable energy (including offshore wind), strengthening California’s climate programs and investments in clean energy and energy affordability, and advancing wildfire resilience and environmental protections tied to the state’s climate goals.
Public Safety & Guns
Supports expanded firearm regulations including measures to restrict ghost guns, require dealer surveillance and other state gun-control measures while also working with local law enforcement and first responders on public safety. Voting record and campaign materials show consistent votes for state gun-safety legislation.
Latest News
AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026
Mike McGuire is in the news because he lost the June 6 special election in California's 1st Congressional District to James Gallagher. McGuire also says he led Democrats in the district's primary and is still in the race for the newly drawn seat in November. He has been campaigning on healthcare, wildfire safety, and opposition to Trump administration policies.
sd02.senate.ca.gov+49
Articles
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat4 months ago
Contrasts on display in lone 1st Congressional District debate
Neutral
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat4 months ago
Mike McGuire is top pick for new House district
Positive
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat3 months ago
Letters to the Editor, Friday June 12
Positive
SRSanta Rosa Press Democrat3 months ago
Gallagher leads in two 1st District races for Congress, with McGuire staking claim to runoff
Negative
Latest Polls
Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.
Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
Total raisedCash on hand
$1.8M
$1.4M
$913.9K
$456.9K
$0
2026
LatestYear
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate
Cycle 2026
$1.8M
$152.6K
$1.7M
$93.1K
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Endorsements