Prediction Edge
RepublicanIncumbent
Nick LaLota

Nick LaLota

Incumbent Republican candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

Nick LaLota is trading at 76% to win the NY-01 House winner? on prediction markets.

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age48 years old (Jun 23, 1978)

GenderMale

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LocationNew York

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationUnited States Naval Academy (BS)

Notable personal detailsNicholas Joseph LaLota is a Republican U.S. Representative for New York’s 1st congressional district, first sworn into office in January 2023. A U.S. Navy veteran, he served as a Surface Warfare Officer and reached the rank of lieutenant. Before Congress, he held local and county government roles on Long Island, including service on the Village of Amityville Board of Trustees and as commissioner of the Suffolk County Board of Elections. He holds degrees from the U.S. Naval Academy and Hofstra University (MBA, JD).

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports substantial middle-class tax relief and a large increase in the SALT deduction cap for Long Island families while also proposing a targeted increase in the top individual tax rate to help pay for those priorities. Positions include advocating tax cuts or exclusions for workers (tips/overtime), expanding child-related credits, and suggesting higher rates for high earners to fund SALT relief. Overall signals both tax-cutting and selective tax increases on top earners.

Healthcare

Supports market-oriented and targeted reforms to improve access and reduce costs (telehealth expansion, drug pricing transparency, opioid response) while backing fiscal measures and budget approaches that Republican leaders say protect major programs but that experts say could lead to Medicaid reductions. Advocates work requirements, removal of ineligible enrollees, and other measures framed as cutting waste and fraud rather than expanding large-scale public coverage programs.

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Immigration & Border

Supports stricter border enforcement and tougher immigration penalties, including measures to limit asylum claims between ports of entry, resume wall construction, expand Border Patrol resources, and make certain immigration offenses deportable. Has co-sponsored and voted for legislation that increases penalties for evading Border Patrol, requires reporting on high‑risk foreign nationals, and restricts federal support for sanctuary city policies.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports abortion access in the first trimester and in cases of rape, incest, or to save the mother’s life; opposes second- and third-trimester abortions and supports state-level decisionmaking rather than a federal ban. Has said he would not vote for a federal abortion ban and opposed efforts to restrict access to mifepristone in appropriations language.

Climate & Energy

Supports local environmental and coastal protection measures (including prohibiting offshore drilling off Long Island and securing clean-water and coastal-resilience funding) while participating in both the Climate Solutions Caucus and the Conservative Climate Caucus; public materials emphasize research, water quality, and regional resilience rather than specific national emissions targets or broad clean-energy policy measures.

Public Safety & Guns

Nick LaLota emphasizes strong support for law enforcement, has sponsored and voted for measures that expand carry rights for qualified officers and increase penalties for assaults on officers, and has advanced policies focused on public-safety enforcement rather than new gun-sale restrictions. His public materials and votes show a priority on officer safety, expanded carrying privileges for law-enforcement personnel, and tougher penalties for crimes against officers.

Latest Polls

NY-01 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Public Policy Polling
50%40%30%20%10%0%
41%
38%
Nick LaLota
N. LaLota
Chris Gallant
C. Gallant
Date (Start - End)SpreadLaLotaGallant
Public Policy PollingDec 10 - 11
LaLota+3.0
41.0%38.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

NY-01 House winner?

Endorsers of Nick LaLota for NY-01 House winner?

AFGE

Public endorsement

AFGE endorsed a slate of U.S. House candidates ahead of the New York primary, including Nick LaLota.

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Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$4.3M
$3.2M
$2.1M
$1.1M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.6M
$77.6K
$1.5M
$61.4K

Cycle 2024

$4.3M
$676.1K
$3.7M
$153.1K

Cycle 2026

$1.7M
$2.1M
$350.3K
$38.9K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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