Prediction Edge
DemocratIncumbent
Pat Ryan

Pat Ryan

Incumbent Democratic candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds — NY-18 House winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

83%chance to win

$15.2KNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyModerate Democrat

Age44 years old (Mar 28, 1982)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationNew York

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationUnited States Military Academy (B.S.), 2004

Notable personal detailsPatrick Kevin “Pat” Ryan is a U.S. Representative from New York serving NY-18. A West Point graduate, he served in the U.S. Army from 2004 to 2009 and later worked as a business executive and small business owner. He previously served as Ulster County Executive (2019–2022) before being elected to Congress in 2022.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Pat Ryan supports tax relief aimed at middle-class families, including expanding the child tax credit and repealing the SALT cap. He also backs making billionaires and big corporations pay their fair share and has opposed Republican tax-cut packages he says benefit the wealthy.

Healthcare

Pat Ryan supports lowering healthcare costs and expanding access through government action rather than dismantling existing coverage. His statements and legislation emphasize holding insurers accountable, reducing prescription drug costs, protecting ACA-related affordability, and defending access to reproductive healthcare.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Pat Ryan has called for bipartisan border security measures while also supporting legal pathways, asylum access, and work authorization for migrants. He has backed comprehensive immigration reform and criticized ICE detention expansion in the Hudson Valley.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Pat Ryan supports abortion access and reproductive freedom. He backs legislation to codify reproductive rights, including the Women’s Health Protection Act, and describes himself as part of the Congressional Pro-Choice Caucus. He has also publicly opposed efforts to impose a nationwide abortion ban and to restrict medication abortion access.

Climate & Energy

Pat Ryan presents climate change as a major threat and supports moving toward a greener future. His stated priorities include 100% renewable energy by 2030, investment in electric public transportation, green job training, and support for clean energy and energy-efficiency incentives.

Public Safety & Guns

Pat Ryan supports commonsense gun reforms including red flag laws, an assault weapons ban, and universal background checks. He also pairs gun policy with increased law-enforcement funding and more mental health and addiction recovery resources.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 31, 2026

Pat Ryan said he will return AIPAC-related donations after criticism over his stance on Israel aid. The move could affect his campaign support as he seeks another term in New York’s 18th District. Earlier, a judge ruled that Republican Jackie Auringer will stay on the ballot, setting up the November race against Ryan.

history.house.gov+42

Latest Polls

NY-18 House winner?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Global Strategy Group
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
53%
Pat Ryan
P. Ryan
Date (Start - End)SpreadRyan
Global Strategy GroupJul 23 - 26
53.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

9
NY-18 House winner?

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$8.1M
$6.1M
$4.1M
$2.0M
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$4.8M
$35.7K
$4.8M
$198.0K

Cycle 2024

$8.1M
$167.2K
$8.0M
$333.8K

Cycle 2026

$4.7M
$3.1M
$1.8M
$98.6K

Source: FEC