$25.7K
NOV 7, 2026
General Election
Voters choose the office holder.
Live Odds
Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.
Paul Nolley is trading at 9% to win the IL-16 House winner? on prediction markets.
Candidate Overview
Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.
Current roleExecutive director, Project First Rate
PartyDemocratic
Political ideologyModerate Democrat
GenderMale
LocationIllinois
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BackgroundExecutive director, Project First Rate
EducationIllinois State University
Notable personal detailsPaul Nolley is a Democratic candidate for the U.S. House in Illinois' 16th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle. He has worked in nonprofit management and advocacy and has served as executive director of Project First Rate since 2020. Nolley attended Illinois State University and has described his campaign as focused on working families, unions, and apprenticeships.
SourcesShowHide
Political Positions
Economy & Taxes
Paul Nolley supports reducing income tax rates for working-class and middle-class people while increasing tax rates on the ultra-rich and large corporations. He also favors closing loopholes used by wealthy taxpayers and wants a simpler, fairer, more progressive tax code that reduces inequality.
Healthcare
Paul Nolley supports moving to a Medicare for All system to lower healthcare costs and expand access. He also says Medicare should negotiate pharmaceutical prices and that removing industry middlemen would improve payment fairness and flexibility for providers and businesses.
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Immigration & Border
Paul Nolley says the immigration system needs a full overhaul, with lawful and fair pathways to legal status, strict background checks, fees or taxes, and enough public staff to make the system work. He rejects open borders and opposes masked federal agents terrorizing immigrant communities, while also saying employers should be held accountable and visa programs should protect workers from abuse.
Climate & Energy
Paul Nolley’s campaign includes protecting Illinois air, water, land, and wildlife, and he says he wants to bring the industrial base and energy sector into the 21st century. The available public material emphasizes jobs, manufacturing, and working-class priorities more than a detailed climate policy agenda.
Latest News
Paul Nolley is being mentioned in connection with the intensifying redistricting fight ahead of the 2026 U.S. House elections. A recent Supreme Court ruling weakening a key Voting Rights Act provision has set off new map-drawing battles that could affect majority-minority districts and House control. The available reporting does not give more specific details about Nolley’s own actions or statements.
Endorsements
Endorsers of Paul Nolley for IL-16 House winner?
Illinois State UAW CAP Council
Labor organization
Illinois State UAW CAP Council endorsed Paul Nolley for Congress.
Campaign Fundraising
Latest report: Cycle 2026Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.
2026
LatestCycle 2026
Source: FEC
New updates coming soon
We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.
- Polls