Prediction Edge
Republican
Ray Riehle

Ray Riehle

Republican candidate for U.S. House in California

Live Odds — CA-04 primary: first place

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$33.8KJUN 6, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleBusiness owner

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

LocationCalifornia

BackgroundBusiness owner

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EducationUniversity of Notre Dame — B.A., History

Notable personal detailsRaymond Anthony Riehle is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in California's 4th Congressional District. He is the owner of A‑Applied Mailing Service, Inc. in Citrus Heights, California, and has owned the business since 1992. He earned a B.A. in History from the University of Notre Dame and previously worked for Nimbus Medical, Inc. on clinical trial support related to a medical device program. He has been involved in local civic service through the Rotary Club of Citrus Heights.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports rolling back taxes and reducing tax burdens to let families keep more of their money, favors tax reduction as a way to stimulate economic activity and address debt created by 'tax and spend' policies, and emphasizes cutting red tape to help businesses recover.

Healthcare

Supports market-based healthcare reforms including increased competition, Health Savings Accounts, and cross-state insurance purchasing while emphasizing reducing healthcare costs. Opposes expansive government-led healthcare expansions.

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Immigration & Border

The candidate emphasizes border security and enforcement while supporting legal immigration channels. He backs policies to reduce unlawful immigration, deport criminal undocumented immigrants, and address visa overstays, while describing a pragmatic approach that also allows legal pathways for refuge and immigration.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

The candidate states that life begins at conception, opposes federal funding for abortion providers such as Planned Parenthood, and supports legislation to prohibit government funding of abortion. The candidate expresses a pro-life stance and displays opposition to abortion in public messaging.

Climate & Energy

Supports market-driven approaches to energy and opposes policies that raise energy costs such as a federal gas tax; emphasizes water management, reservoir storage, groundwater recharge, and forest management to build resilience to climate extremes. Positions focus on reducing government regulation and spending, protecting ratepayers, and securing energy affordability rather than advocating aggressive emissions targets or phase-out of fossil fuels.

Public Safety & Guns

The candidate emphasizes being tough on crime, fully funding police, fire, and EMS, and defending constitutional rights; his campaign platform stresses supporting law enforcement and cracking down on criminals. There are no clear campaign statements endorsing major new firearm restrictions or specific gun-control policies.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 23, 2026

Ray Riehle is in the news because he appears to have fallen behind in California’s 4th Congressional District primary, with late vote counts showing him losing the second runoff spot to Eric Jones. The race was still not fully settled in the earlier report, but the newer updates suggest Jones is moving on to face incumbent Mike Thompson. The coverage also says outside spending and vote-splitting among Republicans may have hurt Riehle’s chances.

fec.gov+46

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Normington, Petts & Associates
20%15%10%5%0%
15%
Ray Riehle
R. Riehle
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
Normington, Petts & AssociatesFeb 19, 2026
15.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Endorsements

8
CA-04 primary: first place

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$114.9K
$86.1K
$57.4K
$28.7K
$0

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2024

$48.6K
$539.83
$48.1K
$2.0K

Cycle 2026

$114.9K
$4.2K
$111.2K
$6.2K

Source: FEC