Prediction Edge
Republican
Robert Smullen

Robert Smullen

Republican candidate for U.S. House in New York

Live Odds — NY-21 Republican nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$31.5KJUN 27, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleState Representative

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyTrump-aligned Republican

Age58 years old (Jul 29, 1968)

GenderMale

Show more

LocationNew York

BackgroundPolitician

EducationThe Citadel (BA)

Notable personal detailsRobert J. Smullen is a Republican politician and retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel. He has represented New York State Assembly District 118 since January 9, 2019. He ran for U.S. House in New York's 21st Congressional District in the 2026 cycle and previously served as a White House Fellow at the U.S. Department of Energy (2003–2004).

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports reducing tax burdens and cutting wasteful government spending while opposing state budget measures he views as fiscally irresponsible. Emphasizes pro-growth, conservative economic policies including support for lower taxes for working people and fiscal restraint at the state level.

Healthcare

Supports expanding access to healthcare in rural communities, improving affordability, expanding telemedicine, incentivizing healthcare workers to serve rural areas, and improving veterans’ access and mental health services.

Show more

Immigration & Border

Supports legal immigration while opposing measures that extend state benefits to undocumented immigrants; has publicly criticized bills allowing undocumented people to obtain driver’s licenses and said immigration should proceed through legal channels. Emphasizes enforcement measures to prevent undocumented entry or benefits rather than broad regularization or pathways to citizenship.

Climate & Energy

Robert Smullen supports protecting traditional rural energy practices and opposes rapid, top-down renewable mandates that he says would harm affordability and local control. He has introduced legislation to preserve wood burning for heat, led GOP efforts questioning the costs of New York’s renewable and zero‑emission mandates, and criticized state renewable siting rules that remove local input.

Public Safety & Guns

Supports protecting Second Amendment rights and lawful gun ownership while opposing recent New York restrictions on concealed carry; emphasizes hunting traditions and law enforcement/public safety priorities. Advocates tougher criminal justice measures to address crime while criticizing state gun laws as burdensome to law-abiding citizens.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Robert Smullen lost the Republican primary for New York’s 21st Congressional District to Anthony Constantino. Constantino will now be the GOP nominee in the race to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik. Smullen had the backing of local GOP officials and the state Conservative Party, and he had secured the Conservative Party nomination, which could still affect the general election ballot.

fec.gov+38

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

McLaughlin & Associates
50%40%30%20%10%0%
43%
Robert Smullen
R. Smullen
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
McLaughlin & AssociatesApr 16, 2026
43.0%
GrayhouseFeb 12, 2026
16.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$1.3M
$1.0M
$673.7K
$336.9K
$0

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2026

$1.3M
$191.8K
$1.2M
$64.2K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements