Prediction Edge
Democrat
Robin Kelly

Robin Kelly

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Illinois

Live Odds — Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

1%chance to win

$1.5MMAR 18, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Representative

PartyDemocratic

Political ideologyProgressive Democrat

Age70 years old (Apr 30, 1956)

GenderFemale

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LocationIllinois

BackgroundU.S. Representative

EducationBradley University — B.A. (Psychology)

Notable personal detailsRobin Lynne Kelly is a Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives, representing Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District since winning a 2013 special election. She previously served in the Illinois House of Representatives (2003–2007) and held local and state government leadership roles, including Cook County chief administrative officer and chief of staff to the Illinois state treasurer. Kelly earned a B.A. in psychology and an M.A. in counseling from Bradley University and a Ph.D. in political science from Northern Illinois University.

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Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Supports taxing the ultra-rich and requiring profitable corporations to pay more, including a proposed minimum tax on taxpayers with more than $10 million in net worth; favors repealing the 2017 GOP tax law and shifting tax burden away from low-income Americans. Backs expanding social programs tied to revenue increases, including raising the minimum wage and strengthening Social Security by lifting the payroll tax cap.

Healthcare

Supports Medicare for All (single-payer) and broader public expansions to lower costs and expand benefits, while also prioritizing health equity, maternal care improvements, and expansions to Medicare coverage (dental/vision and other benefits).

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Immigration & Border

Supports protections for DREAMers and a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who contribute to the economy; opposes expansion of ICE funding and has voted against Department of Homeland Security funding measures that increase resources for immigration enforcement. Advocates oversight and restrictions on ICE enforcement actions and seeks alternatives to expanded enforcement and detention capacity.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Supports a woman's right to choose, has worked to preserve and expand access to abortion and birth control, and has co-sponsored federal legislation protecting abortion access. Has publicly condemned the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade and called for defending reproductive health protections in Illinois and at the federal level.

Climate & Energy

Robin Kelly supports strong climate action including achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, expanding clean and renewable energy (solar, wind, biofuels), addressing environmental justice, and investing in infrastructure such as EV charging and water systems. She has voiced support for the ideas in the Green New Deal and backed major climate-related investments such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Her environmental voting record and advocacy groups give her a strongly pro-environment voting score.

Public Safety & Guns

Robin Kelly supports comprehensive gun safety measures including expanded background checks, restrictions on assault-style weapons and devices that increase firing rate, measures to hold dealers accountable and close trafficking loopholes, and laws preventing domestic abusers from possessing firearms. She has authored and co-led federal legislation and advocacy to update dealer rules, expand background-check coverage, incentivize safe storage, and advance other gun-violence-prevention reforms.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedJul 15, 2026

Robin Kelly was defeated in the Illinois Democratic Senate primary, finishing third with about 18% of the vote behind Juliana Stratton and Raja Krishnamoorthi. The race was closely watched because it was for the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin, and Kelly had been one of the leading candidates heading into the vote. Her campaign had backing from the Congressional Black Caucus, but Stratton ultimately won the nomination and will face Republican Don Tracy in the general election.

history.house.gov+43

Latest Polls

Illinois Democratic Senate nominee?

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

Robin Kelly currently averages 11.6%, ranking 4th in this race, 6.4 points behind the next candidate.

Polling average: 11.6%Position: 4thMargin: -6.4 ptsLatest poll: 13.6% (Mar 13 - 15)Polls included: 24

Average recalculated from polls through Mar 13 - 15.

Polling Average
40%30%20%10%0%
11.6%
34.1%
21.7%
18%
Robin Kelly
R. Kelly
Raja Krishnamoorthi
R. Krishnamoorthi
Juliana Stratton
J. Stratton
Lauren Underwood
L. Underwood
Michael Frerichs
M. Frerichs
Date (Start - End)SpreadKellyKrishnamoorthiStrattonUnderwoodFrerichs
Polling Average
Krishnamoorthi+22.5
11.6%34.1%21.7%18.0%4.0%
Victory ResearchMar 13 - 15
Krishnamoorthi+18.0
13.6%31.6%29.4%
FM3 ResearchMar 10 - 12
Stratton+20.0
18.0%33.0%38.0%
Public Policy PollingMar 9 - 10
Stratton+19.0
13.0%30.0%32.0%
Tulchin ResearchMar 4 - 8
Krishnamoorthi+27.0
12.0%39.0%28.0%
Change ResearchMar 3 - 5
Krishnamoorthi+22.0
14.0%36.0%26.0%
Public Policy PollingMar 2 - 3
Stratton+22.0
11.0%30.0%33.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 23 - 24
Krishnamoorthi+16.0
13.0%29.0%27.0%
Tulchin ResearchFeb 14 - 19
Krishnamoorthi+32.0
10.0%42.0%26.0%
Public Policy PollingFeb 2 - 3
Krishnamoorthi+26.0
8.0%34.0%23.0%
GBAOJan 25 - 28
Krishnamoorthi+30.0
13.0%43.0%17.0%
Victory ResearchJan 21 - 25
Krishnamoorthi+20.7
11.4%32.1%20.7%
GBAOJan 8 - 12
Krishnamoorthi+26.0
15.0%41.0%16.0%
Emerson CollegeJan 3 - 5
Krishnamoorthi+23.9
7.5%31.4%9.7%
Public Policy PollingDec 8 - 9
Krishnamoorthi+24.0
8.0%32.0%20.0%
Change ResearchDec 4 - 8
Krishnamoorthi+35.0
7.0%42.0%14.0%
Victory ResearchNov 20 - 24
Krishnamoorthi+6.8
22.3%29.1%17.7%
Public Policy PollingSep 25 - 26
Krishnamoorthi+25.0
8.0%33.0%18.0%
Change ResearchSep 17 - 19
Krishnamoorthi+33.0
8.0%41.0%17.0%
GBAOAug 12 - 17
Krishnamoorthi+26.0
12.0%38.0%18.0%
Z to A ResearchAug 8 - 10
Krishnamoorthi+38.0
13.0%51.0%28.0%
GBAOJun 5 - 10
Krishnamoorthi+18.0
14.0%32.0%19.0%
Public Policy PollingApr 29 - 30
Krishnamoorthi+12.0
8.0%20.0%13.0%16.0%
GBAOApr 24 - 28
Krishnamoorthi+13.0
8.0%21.0%13.0%20.0%4.0%
GBAOApr 24 - 28
Krishnamoorthi+16.0
11.0%27.0%18.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

Campaign Fundraising

Latest report: Cycle 2026

Campaign finance totals from the latest available reporting period.

Total raisedCash on hand
$2.0M
$1.5M
$1.0M
$503.8K
$0

2022

2024

2026

Latest
Year
Total raised
Cash on hand
Total spent
Burn rate

Cycle 2022

$1.7M
$1.4M
$1.3M
$54.7K

Cycle 2024

$1.9M
$2.0M
$1.4M
$56.5K

Cycle 2026

$456.3K
$0.00
$2.5M
$123.6K

Source: FEC

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

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