Prediction Edge
Republican
Roger Marshall

Roger Marshall

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Kansas

Live Odds — Kansas Senate winner?

Current prediction-market probability for the candidate, updated as market prices change.

64%chance to win

$2.5MNOV 7, 2026

Candidate Overview

Key details about the candidate’s background, party, office sought and current campaign.

Current roleU.S. Senator

PartyRepublican

Political ideologyConservative Republican

Age66 years old (Aug 9, 1960)

GenderMale

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LocationKansas

BackgroundU.S. Senator

EducationA.S., Butler Community College (1980)

Notable personal detailsRoger Wayne Marshall is a U.S. Senator from Kansas (Republican), serving since January 3, 2021. He previously represented Kansas’s 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House (2017–2021). Marshall is a physician (OB/GYN) and served in the U.S. Army Reserve from 1984 to 1991, reaching the rank of captain.

SourcesShow

Political Positions

LiberalConservative

Economy & Taxes

Marshall supports extending and making permanent Trump-era tax cuts, adding new tax breaks such as no tax on overtime, and cutting federal spending. He also backs deregulation and policies aimed at reducing costs for small businesses, farmers, and consumers.

Healthcare

Roger Marshall favors market-based healthcare reforms, including price transparency, patient-controlled spending, and reducing what he describes as fraud and overreliance on ACA subsidies. He criticizes the Affordable Care Act and says Medicaid should be preserved for those who need it most, especially seniors and people with disabilities.

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Immigration & Border

Supports aggressive border enforcement, including resuming border wall construction, tightening asylum standards, increasing Border Patrol staffing, and restricting parole and migrant transport assistance. Has also backed funding and legislation to expand ICE and CBP and described the border situation in strongly restrictive terms.

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

Roger Marshall has publicly supported protecting life after 15 weeks, backed the Value Them Both Amendment in Kansas, and said he believes life begins at conception. He has also opposed abortion-rights legislation he described as protecting abortion on demand and invalidating state limits.

Climate & Energy

Roger Marshall emphasizes American energy independence, lower fuel prices, and fewer federal restrictions on oil, gas, and biofuel production. He has also opposed U.S. participation in the Paris Climate Agreement, while supporting legislation that helps farmers participate in carbon markets for climate-smart practices.

Public Safety & Guns

Roger Marshall has repeatedly opposed red flag laws, universal background checks, pistol brace restrictions, and other federal gun-control measures. He has also backed legislation aimed at protecting law-abiding gun owners and expanding firearm sales flexibility, while supporting a tough-on-crime, law-and-order approach.

Latest News

AINews Summary
Last updatedSep 2, 2026

Roger Marshall is in the news because he is set to face Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Kansas U.S. Senate race after Hamilton won the Democratic nomination. The race is being framed as competitive, though several reports say Republicans are still favored to hold the seat. Recent coverage has also focused more on Hamilton’s campaign and criticism of his views than on Marshall himself.

history.house.gov+41

Latest Polls

Recent polling results and the candidate's current average in the race.

co/efficient
60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
49%
Roger Marshall
R. Marshall
Date (Start - End)SpreadShare
co/efficientSep 10, 2026
–49.0%
Global Strategy GroupAug 16, 2026
–43.0%
Public Policy PollingAug 8, 2026
–46.0%
GBAOJul 13, 2026
–47.0%
GQRApr 27, 2026
–49.0%
Tavern ResearchJan 28, 2026
–55.0%

Aggregation source: FiftyPlusOne

New updates coming soon

We're monitoring and will update when new data impacts the race.

  • Endorsements
  • Fundraising